Relationships between Human Population Density and Burned Area at Continental and Global Scales
Open accessAbstract
We explore the large spatial variation in the relationship between population density and burned area, using continental-scale Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) based on 13 years of satellite-derived burned area maps from the global fire emissions database (GFED) and the human population density from the gridded population of the world (GPW 2005). Significant relationships are observed over 51.5% of the global land area, and the area affected varies from continent to continent: population density has a significant impact on fire over most of Asia and Africa but is important in explaining fire over < 22% of Europe and Australia. Increasing population density is associated with both increased and decreased in fire. The nature of the relationship depends on land-use: increasing population density is associated with increased burned are in rangelands but with decreased burned area in croplands. Overall, the relationship between population density and burned area is non-monotonic: burned area initially increases with population density and then decreases when population density exceeds a threshold. These thresholds vary regionally. Our study contributes to improved understanding of how human activities relate to burned area, and should contribute to a better estimate of atmospheric emissions from biomass burning.
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In the modern period, the link between people and fire seems strongest at middle levels of development, with fires becoming less likely beyond certain population density, urbanization, or fossil fuel dependence.
“The human–fire connection in the modern era appears strongest at intermediate levels of development, as fires become less likely in the landscape beyond a certain population density, level of urbanization, or dependence on fossil fuels (11, 13, 24).”
From Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States (2017) · cites this paper as [11]
Geographic variation in regional and continental-scale fire activity in the US is strongly associated with proxies for human-caused changes such as population density, road density, and land-use and development patterns.
“Geographic variability in regional and continental-scale fire activity in the United States is strongly tied to proxies for these human-caused changes, including population and road density, and different land-use and development patterns (10–15).”
From Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States (2017) · cites this paper as [11]
The anthropogenic influence on fire activity is well known but still a matter of debate, as the nature of this influence is complicated.
“The anthropogenic influence (AI) on fire activity is well known, but is still a matter of debate, as the nature of this influence is complicated [33-35].”
From A Global Index for Mapping the Exposure of Water Resources to Wildfire (2016) · cites this paper as [34]
Relationships between fire and global population patterns have been identified.
“Relationships between fire and global population patterns have been identified [16–18]”
From Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California (2016) · cites this paper as [17]
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- Authors
- Bistinas, I., Oom, D., Sá, A. C. L., Harrison, S. P., Prentice, I. C., & Pereira, J. M. C.
- Affiliations
- University of Lisbon (PT)
- University of Reading (GB)
- Imperial College London (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Prentice, I. Colin
- ORCID
- Venue
- PLoS ONE
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Published
- 2013-12-16
- Volume
- 8
- Issue
- 12
- Pages
- e81188
- ISSN
- 1932-6203 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC3865302
- OpenAlex
- W2018994427
- Cited by
- 110
- References
- 30
- Citations by year
- 2026: 8 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 6 · 2023: 18 · 2022: 12 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 8 · 2017: 7 · 2016: 7 · 2015: 5 · 2014: 4
- FWCI
- 4.07
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- PLoS ONE (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- CentAUR (University of Reading) (acceptedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Spiral (Imperial College London) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Impact of Light on Environment and Health
- Keywords
- population density, burned area, fire emissions, biomass burning, land use, rangeland, cropland, non-monotonic relationship, population thresholds, Global Fire Emissions Database, spatial heterogeneity
- MeSH terms
- Climate, Fires, Humans, Population Density, Ecosystem, Biomass
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