The global distribution of ecosystems in a world without fire
Abstract
This paper is the first global study of the extent to which fire determines global vegetation patterns by preventing ecosystems from achieving the potential height, biomass and dominant functional types expected under the ambient climate (climate potential). To determine climate potential, we simulated vegetation without fire using a dynamic global-vegetation model. Model results were tested against fire exclusion studies from different parts of the world. Simulated dominant growth forms and tree cover were compared with satellite-derived land- and tree-cover maps. Simulations were generally consistent with results of fire exclusion studies in southern Africa and elsewhere. Comparison of global 'fire off' simulations with landcover and treecover maps show that vast areas of humid C(4) grasslands and savannas, especially in South America and Africa, have the climate potential to form forests. These are the most frequently burnt ecosystems in the world. Without fire, closed forests would double from 27% to 56% of vegetated grid cells, mostly at the expense of C(4) plants but also of C(3) shrubs and grasses in cooler climates. C(4) grasses began spreading 6-8 Ma, long before human influence on fire regimes. Our results suggest that fire was a major factor in their spread into forested regions, splitting biotas into fire tolerant and intolerant taxa.
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Wildfires are essential to ecosystem function across the globe and influence a wide spectrum of ecosystem components and natural processes, including the hydrological cycle.
“Wildfires are essential to ecosystem function across the globe [1], influencing a wide spectrum of ecosystem components and natural processes [2], among which is the hydrological cycle.”
From A Global Index for Mapping the Exposure of Water Resources to Wildfire (2016) · cites this paper as [1]
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Land-plant ecology on the basis of functional traits
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Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire
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What Limits Trees in C<sub>4</sub> Grasslands and Savannas?
Bond, W. J. (2008) · Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics · doi:10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.39.110707.173411 · Cited by 909 · see citing works
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Defining pyromes and global syndromes of fire regimes
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Are wildfires a disaster in the Mediterranean basin? – A review
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What limits fire? An examination of drivers of burnt area in Southern Africa
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A climate-change risk analysis for world ecosystems
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Fire as a fundamental ecological process: Research advances and frontiers
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“The current context of fire ecology studies (Archibald et al., 2018; Bond, Woodward, & Midgley, 2005; Bowman et al., 2009; Krawchuk, Moritz, Parisien, Dorn, & Hayhoe, 2009; Pausas, Keeley, & Schwilk, 2017; van der Werf et al., 2006) reflects a remarkable paradigm shift—from earlier concepts of fire…”
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Fire as a key driver of Earth's biodiversity
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Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services
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Self-citationWoody cover in African savannas: the role of resources, fire and herbivory.
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Where Tree Planting and Forest Expansion are Bad for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services
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Deciphering the distribution of the savanna biome
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Self-citationProjections of rapidly rising surface temperatures over Africa under low mitigation
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The Global Fire Atlas of individual fire size, duration, speed and direction
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Next‐generation dynamic global vegetation models: learning from community ecology
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When is a ‘forest’ a savanna, and why does it matter?
Ratnam, J., Bond, W. J., Fensham, R. J., Hoffmann, W. A., Archibald, S. A., Lehmann, C. E. R., Anderson, M. T., Higgins, S. I., & Sankaran, M. (2011) · Global Ecology and Biogeography · doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00634.x · Cited by 483 · see citing works
Self-citationConstraints on global fire activity vary across a resource gradient
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Wildfires as an ecosystem service
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EFFECTS OF FOUR DECADES OF FIRE MANIPULATION ON WOODY VEGETATION STRUCTURE IN SAVANNA
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Self-citationThe status and challenge of global fire modelling
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Bark thickness and fire regime
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Carbon dioxide and the uneasy interactions of trees and savannah grasses
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Self-citationUnderstanding ecosystem retrogression
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Changes in assembly processes in soil bacterial communities following a wildfire disturbance
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What controls the distribution of tropical forest and savanna?
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The need for a consistent fire policy for Cerrado conservation
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The origin of the savanna biome
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Environmental controls on the distribution of wildfire at multiple spatial scales
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Fuel shapes the fire–climate relationship: evidence from Mediterranean ecosystems
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The partitioning of Africa: statistically defined biogeographical regions in sub‐Saharan Africa
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Flammability as an ecological and evolutionary driver
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Resilience and restoration of tropical and subtropical grasslands, savannas, and grassy woodlands
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Self-citationPredictive Models of Forest Dynamics
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Fire and the Miocene expansion of C <sub>4</sub> grasslands
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COPSE reloaded: An improved model of biogeochemical cycling over Phanerozoic time
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Biological and geophysical feedbacks with fire in the Earth system
Archibald, S., Lehmann, C. E. R., Belcher, C. M., Bond, W. J., Bradstock, R. A., Daniau, A.-L., Dexter, K. G., Forrestel, E. J., Greve, M., He, T., et al. (2018) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa9ead · Cited by 341 · see citing works
Self-citationClimate controls on the variability of fires in the tropics and subtropics
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Feedbacks of Terrestrial Ecosystems to Climate Change
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Thicket expansion in a South African savanna under divergent land use: local vs. global drivers?
Wigley, B. J., Bond, W. J., & Hoffman, M. T. (2009) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02030.x · Cited by 316 · see citing works
Self-citationUngulate preference for burned patches reveals strength of fire–grazing interaction
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A climate-based model to predict potential treeline position around the globe
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Cenozoic vegetation, climate changes and hominid evolution in tropical Africa
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A continent-wide assessment of the form and intensity of large mammal herbivory in Africa
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Fire regimes of A ustralia: a pyrogeographic model system
Murphy, B. P., Bradstock, R. A., Boer, M. M., Carter, J., Cary, G. J., Cochrane, M. A., Fensham, R. J., Russell‐Smith, J., Williamson, G. J., & Bowman, D. M. J. S. (2013) · Journal of Biogeography · doi:10.1111/jbi.12065 · Cited by 301 · see citing works
Fire‐related traits for plant species of the Mediterranean Basin
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A Disease-Mediated Trophic Cascade in the Serengeti and its Implications for Ecosystem C
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“There has accordingly long been disagreement among ecologists about the relative importance of climate, fire, and herbivores (especially elephants) as determinants of tree-to-grass ratios and tree cover in African savannas [3,9,10].”
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Browsing and fire interact to suppress tree density in an African savanna
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Self-citationRecent trends in African fires driven by cropland expansion and El Niño to La Niña transition
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The changing radiative forcing of fires: global model estimates for past, present and future
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The Early Origins of Terrestrial C 4 Photosynthesis
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Large parts of the world are brown or black: A different view on the ‘Green World’ hypothesis
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Self-citationSouthern Africa Validation of the MODIS, L3JRC, and GlobCarbon Burned-Area Products
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Integrating plant–soil interactions into global carbon cycle models
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Global patterns in the sensitivity of burned area to fire-weather: implications for climate change
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Climate change, human land use and future fires in the Amazon
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Fire and tree death: understanding and improving modeling of fire-induced tree mortality
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Grasslands may be more reliable carbon sinks than forests in California
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Prescribed burning: how can it work to conserve the things we value?
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Nature's green revolution: the remarkable evolutionary rise of C 4 plants
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Carbon sequestration and biodiversity of re-growing miombo woodlands in Mozambique
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Disturbance maintains alternative biome states
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Alternative Biome States in Terrestrial Ecosystems
Pausas, J. G., & Bond, W. J. (2020) · Trends in Plant Science · doi:10.1016/j.tplants.2019.11.003 · Cited by 252 · see citing works
Self-citationFire effects on the persistence of soil organic matter and long-term carbon storage
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Flammable biomes dominated by eucalypts originated at the Cretaceous–Palaeogene boundary
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A full greenhouse gases budget of Africa: Synthesis, uncertainties, and vulnerabilities
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Tamm Review: Shifting global fire regimes: Lessons from reburns and research needs
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Biome: evolution of a crucial ecological and biogeographical concept
Mucina, L. (2018) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/nph.15609 · Cited by 247 · see citing works
High-severity fire: evaluating its key drivers and mapping its probability across western US forests
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Focus on changing fire regimes: interactions with climate, ecosystems, and society
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Fire and the spread of flowering plants in the Cretaceous
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Self-citationEcological Stability of Mixed-Species Forests
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Savanna fire and the origins of the ‘underground forests’ of A frica
Maurin, O., Davies, T. J., Burrows, J. E., Daru, B. H., Yessoufou, K., Muasya, A. M., van der Bank, M., & Bond, W. J. (2014) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/nph.12936 · Cited by 231 · see citing works
Self-citationEnvironmental drivers of large, infrequent wildfires: The emerging conceptual model
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Integrating geospatial information into fire risk assessment
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Fire drives functional thresholds on the savanna–forest transition
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REVIEW: Refuges for fauna in fire‐prone landscapes: their ecological function and importance
Robinson, N., Leonard, S., Ritchie, E., Bassett, M., Chia, E. K., Buckingham, S., Gibb, H., Bennett, A., & Clarke, M. (2013) · Journal of Applied Ecology · doi:10.1111/1365-2664.12153 · Cited by 222 · see citing works
- Authors
- Bond, W. J., Woodward, F. I., & Midgley, G. F.
- Affiliations
- University of Cape Town (ZA)
- University of Sheffield (GB)
- Conservation International (US)
- Venue
- New Phytologist
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2004-11-12
- Volume
- 165
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 525-538
- ISSN
- 0028-646X (ISSN-L)
- 1469-8137
- OpenAlex
- W2110659496
- Cited by
- 1,942
- References
- 118
- Citations by year
- 2026: 58 · 2025: 94 · 2024: 82 · 2023: 101 · 2022: 107 · 2021: 121 · 2020: 92 · 2019: 115 · 2018: 114 · 2017: 112 · 2016: 112 · 2015: 119 · 2014: 110 · 2013: 118 · 2012: 95
- FWCI
- 32.34
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- New Phytologist (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Andrew W. Mellon Foundation
- National Research Foundation
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
- Keywords
- fire, fire suppression, dynamic global vegetation models, tree cover, C4 grasslands, savanna, forest expansion, fire tolerance
- MeSH terms
- Biological Evolution, Fires, Models, Biological, Population Dynamics, Ecosystem, Plant Physiological Phenomena, Biomass
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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