Decoupling of deforestation and soy production in the southern Amazon during the late 2000s
Open accessAbstract
From 2006 to 2010, deforestation in the Amazon frontier state of Mato Grosso decreased to 30% of its historical average (1996–2005) whereas agricultural production reached an all-time high. This study combines satellite data with government deforestation and production statistics to assess land-use transitions and potential market and policy drivers associated with these trends. In the forested region of the state, increased soy production from 2001 to 2005 was entirely due to cropland expansion into previously cleared pasture areas (74%) or forests (26%). From 2006 to 2010, 78% of production increases were due to expansion (22% to yield increases), with 91% on previously cleared land. Cropland expansion fell from 10 to 2% of deforestation between the two periods, with pasture expansion accounting for most remaining deforestation. Declining deforestation coincided with a collapse of commodity markets and implementation of policy measures to reduce deforestation. Soybean profitability has since increased to pre-2006 levels whereas deforestation continued to decline, suggesting that antideforestation measures may have influenced the agricultural sector. We found little evidence of direct leakage of soy expansion into cerrado in Mato Grosso during the late 2000s, although indirect land-use changes and leakage to more distant regions are possible. This study provides evidence that reduced deforestation and increased agricultural production can occur simultaneously in tropical forest frontiers, provided that land is available and policies promote the efficient use of already-cleared lands (intensification) while restricting deforestation. It remains uncertain whether government- and industry-led policies can contain deforestation if future market conditions favor another boom in agricultural expansion.
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In the state of Mato Grosso, the generalization of double-cropping systems is a major driver of the decoupling of deforestation and crop production.
“In the state of Mato Grosso, the generalization of double-cropping systems is a major driver of the decoupling of deforestation and crop production (Macedo et al., 2012, Arvor et al., 2012and Arvor et al., 2013).”
From Transition in environmental governance in the Brazilian Amazon: emergence of a new pattern of socio-economic development and deforestation (2016) · cites this paper as Macedo et al., 2012
The Conclusions (page unavailable) say that increased soy production after 2005 was mainly due to expansion onto previously cleared land, with higher yields contributing only partially. The paper documents decoupling in Mato Grosso, but it does not identify the spread of double-cropping as a major driver; its account of the main driver is different. (LLM, conf=0.84)
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Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe soybean agricultural frontier has now reached the Cerrado areas of MATOPIBA (Maranhão, Tocantins, Piaui, Bahia states).
“the soybean agricultural frontier has now reached the Cerrado areas of MATOPIBA (i.e.Maranhão, Tocantins, Piaui, Bahia states) (Eloy et al., 2015, Macedo et al., 2012and Richards et al., 2014)”
From Transition in environmental governance in the Brazilian Amazon: emergence of a new pattern of socio-economic development and deforestation (2016) · cites this paper as Macedo et al., 2012
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Cites
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- Authors
- Macedo, M. N., DeFries, R. S., Morton, D. C., Stickler, C. M., Galford, G. L., & Shimabukuro, Y. E.
- Affiliations
- Columbia University (US)
- Goddard Space Flight Center (US)
- Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia (BR)
- Woodwell Climate Research Center (US)
- Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (BR)
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2012-01-09
- Volume
- 109
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 1341-1346
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC3268292
- OpenAlex
- W2083482386
- Cited by
- 664
- References
- 4
- Citations by year
- 2026: 23 · 2025: 32 · 2024: 32 · 2023: 35 · 2022: 38 · 2021: 58 · 2020: 44 · 2019: 54 · 2018: 56 · 2017: 55 · 2016: 57 · 2015: 56 · 2014: 37 · 2013: 62 · 2012: 25
- FWCI
- 44.48
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- NASA STI Repository (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) (submittedVersion)
- Biblioteca Digital da Memória Científica do INPE (National Institute for Space Research) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Governo Brasil
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Oil Palm Production and Sustainability
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › General Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agriculture, Land Use, Rural Development
- Keywords
- deforestation, soybean production, Mato Grosso, southern Amazon, cropland expansion, pasture expansion, land use change, deforestation policy, commodity markets, agricultural intensification, forest frontier, Cerrado
- MeSH terms
- Agriculture, Brazil, Commerce, Conservation of Natural Resources, Public Policy, Glycine max, History, 21st Century
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