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Natural disasters and population mobility in Bangladesh
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The consequences of environmental change for human migration have gained increasing attention in the context of climate change and recent large-scale natural disasters, but as yet relatively few large-scale and quantitative studies have addressed this issue. We investigate the consequences of climate-related natural disasters for long-term population mobility in rural Bangladesh, a region particularly vulnerable to environmental change, using longitudinal survey data from 1,700 households spanning a 15-y period. Multivariate event history models are used to estimate the effects of flooding and crop failures on local population mobility and long-distance migration while controlling for a large set of potential confounders at various scales. The results indicate that flooding has modest effects on mobility that are most visible at moderate intensities and for women and the poor. However, crop failures unrelated to flooding have strong effects on mobility in which households that are not directly affected but live in severely affected areas are the most likely to move. These results point toward an alternate paradigm of disaster-induced mobility that recognizes the significant barriers to migration for vulnerable households as well their substantial local adaptive capacity.
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“And yet, various studies suggest that most people remain in their place of residence even when environmental conditions deteriorate dramatically (Gray and Mueller 2012; Jamero et al. 2017; Khatun et al. 2022; Mallick and Mallick 2021; Penning-Rowsell et al. 2013).”
From Trapped by climate change? (In)voluntary immobility in Bangladesh (2025) · cites this paper as Gray and Mueller 2012
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“The latter finding is in line with recent studies from Bangladesh reporting that flooding has an insignificant or even negative effect on migration (Call et al., 2017; Chen et al., 2017; Gray & Mueller, 2012; Chen & Mueller, 2018).”
From Environmental shocks and migration among a climate-vulnerable population in Bangladesh (2025) · cites this paper as Gray & Mueller, 2012
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BackgroundGANs for Privacy-Aware Mobility Modeling
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“Gray and Mueller (2012a) consider the link between draughts and emigration in Ethiopia, while Gray and Mueller (2012b) analyze the effect of flood on mobility in Bangladesh.”
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“Introduction Despite active efforts at disaster prevention and mitigation, the losses caused by disasters have increased [1,2].”
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“Gray and Mueller [27] found that in Bangladesh the effects of crop failure and flooding on mobility were stronger for women than men, which may reflect that women in this context have less secure access to land.”
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“…move, or are pushed, away because of climate change impacts is increasingly the subject of research (Bardsley and Hugo 2010; Massey et al. 2010; Gray and Mueller 2012a, 2012b; Warner and Afifi 2014; Ocello et al. 2015), with a few recent examples concentrating on heat stress (Mueller et al.…”
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“Most existing empirical studies on climate-related internal migration focus only on a single country and consequently yield substantial heterogeneity in the findings across studies (Dillon et al. 2011; Gray and Mueller 2012a, 2012b; Mastrorillo et al. 2016; Mueller et al. 2014).”
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“However, in some cases, individuals may have a marked preference for exploring new destinations [31, 32, 34–36] or be forced to alter their routine due to external factors such as job loss, health issues, natural disasters, or epidemics [9, 37–45].”
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“…affiliated with universities in Bangladesh and India are increasingly publishing on environmentally inducedmigration in Bangladesh (see e.g., Das, 2011; Gray and Mueller, 2012; Stojanov and Duží, 2012; Etzold et al., 2014; Mallick and Vogt, 2014; Mallick and Etzold, 2015; Rahman et al., 2015).”
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“Reduction or failure in crop cultivation brings increasing amount of migration from agricultural-dependent areas to other regions (Henry et al. 2004, Gray and Mueller 2012, Cai et al. 2016, Wrathall et al. 2018).”
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The Effects of Agricultural Income Shocks on Forced Migration: Evidence from Colombia
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Socio-economic determinants of women’s livelihood time use in rural Bangladesh
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“Researchers often associate this type of migration with a large economic investment wherein males out-migrate to neighboring urban areas or internationally to seek of jobs and opportunities (Bhatta et al., 2015; Gray & Mueller, 2012; Rakib & Matz, 2016).”
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“The other is gradual environmental degradation, such as soil degradation, sharp decrease in vegetation, global warming (Gray and Mueller, 2012; Beine and Parsons, 2015).”
BackgroundClimate change adaptation and upland rice yield: evidence from a farm survey in Yunnan, China
Wang, H., Hu, X., Yang, S., & Xu, G. (2022) · China Agricultural Economic Review · doi:10.1108/caer-02-2022-0038 · Cited by 9
Han, Y., & Ye, X. (2022) · Urban Climate · doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101321 · Cited by 8
Islam, S., Islam, A. H. M. S., & Satō, M. (2022) · Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science · doi:10.1007/s41685-022-00266-3 · Cited by 8
“For instance, (Gray and Mueller 2012) paid attention to natural disasters and population mobility, Keerthiratne and Tol (2018) focused on natural disasters and income inequality, Ahmed et al.”
BackgroundSakapaji, S. C. (2023) · European Journal of Theoretical and Applied Sciences · doi:10.59324/ejtas.2023.1(4).42 · Cited by 8
“Involuntary migration stands out among the many social and economic adaptation strategies, particularly for the weak coastal populations in developing countries (Gray & Mueller, 2006; Rana & Ilina, 2021).”
BackgroundHunter, L. M., Leyk, S., Maclaurin, G. J., Nawrotzki, R., Twine, W. C., Erasmus, B. F. N., & Collinson, M. (2017) · Comparative Population Studies · doi:10.12765/cpos-2017-11 · Cited by 9
Environmental Migration and Labor Markets in NepalPreprint
Maystadt, J.-F., Mueller, V., & Sebastian, A. R. (2014) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2483979 · Cited by 9
Self-citationNatural Disasters and Human MobilityPreprint
Mbaye, L. M., & Zimmermann, K. F. (2016) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2825015 · Cited by 8
Retrenchment under climate-driven risks in subsistence farming communities
Choquette-Levy, N., Ghimire, D. J., Oppenheimer, M., Ghimire, R., & Ck, D. (2025) · Population and Environment · doi:10.1007/s11111-025-00493-8 · Cited by 10
“…et al., 2014), and Bangladeshi households experiencing severe crop failure were less likely to migrate either locally or internationally (Gray & Mueller, 2012), while Nepali households perceiving environmental degradation were more likely to shift from international to local migration…”
To relocate or not: Climate-induced migration dynamics in the context of adaptation and intervention
Chen, X. (2025) · Energy Economics · doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108635 · Cited by 7
Global determinants of coastal migration under climate change
Duijndam, S., Botzen, W. J. W., Hagedoorn, L., Ton, M. J., de Bruijn, J., Carretero, S., Dachary-Bernard, J., Rulleau, B., & Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2025) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-025-59199-y · Cited by 7
Rusere, F., Li, Q., Hunter, L. M., Collinson, M., Ouma, S., Twine, W. C., & Samimi, C. (2025) · Journal of Rural Studies · doi:10.1016/j.jrurstud.2025.103819 · Cited by 8
Drought and migration: a case study of rural Mozambique
Yoo, S. H., & Agadjanian, V. (2024) · Population and Environment · doi:10.1007/s11111-023-00444-1 · Cited by 7
“…costs of crossing the border, proximity to the destination, and a deeply rooted culture of migration lower the risks and costs associated with migration and may push the migration option up in 3 Page 6 of 22 the ranking of coping strategies and hasten migration decisions (Gray & Mueller, 2012b).”
The Impact of Climate Change on Work: Lessons for Developing Countries
Feriga, M., Lozano‐Gracia, N., & Serneels, P. M. (2024) · The World Bank Research Observer · doi:10.1093/wbro/lkae002 · Cited by 16
Returners and explorers dichotomy in the face of natural hazards
He, Z., Hu, Y., Duan, L. L., & Michailidis, G. C. (2024) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-024-64087-4 · Cited by 9
Landslide and flood disaster: Causes and its responses
Linkha, T. R. (2024) · Journal of Population and Development · doi:10.3126/jpd.v5i1.67577 · Cited by 7
Metadata
- Authors
- Gray, C. L., & Mueller, V.
- Affiliations
- University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (US)
- International Food Policy Research Institute (US)
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2012-04-02
- Volume
- 109
- Issue
- 16
- Pages
- 6000-6005
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC3341015
- OpenAlex
- W1976473400
- Cited by
- 687
- References
- 57
- Citations by year
- 2026: 57 · 2025: 51 · 2024: 63 · 2023: 73 · 2022: 67 · 2021: 64 · 2020: 70 · 2019: 56 · 2018: 41 · 2017: 30 · 2016: 47 · 2015: 19 · 2014: 25 · 2013: 15 · 2012: 9
- FWCI
- 71.49
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Carolina Digital Repository (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) (submittedVersion)
- IFPRI E-brary (International Food Policy Research Institute) (submittedVersion)
- CGSPace A Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- International Food Policy Research Institute (International Food Policy Research Institute) (submittedVersion)
- UNC Libraries
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (2r24hd050924-06)
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R24 HD-050924, R00HD061752)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
- Social Sciences › Geography, Planning and Development › Earthquake and Disaster Impact Studies
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Hydropower, Displacement, Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- natural disasters, human mobility, climate change, floods, crop failure, rural migration, long-distance migration, disaster-induced migration, vulnerable families, women, poverty, adaptive capacity, Bangladesh
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Bangladesh, Disasters, Emigration and Immigration, Family Characteristics, Female, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Population Dynamics, Rural Population, Time Factors, Multivariate Analysis, Young Adult, Floods, Climate Change
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