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Natural disasters and population mobility in Bangladesh
Open accessAbstract
The consequences of environmental change for human migration have gained increasing attention in the context of climate change and recent large-scale natural disasters, but as yet relatively few large-scale and quantitative studies have addressed this issue. We investigate the consequences of climate-related natural disasters for long-term population mobility in rural Bangladesh, a region particularly vulnerable to environmental change, using longitudinal survey data from 1,700 households spanning a 15-y period. Multivariate event history models are used to estimate the effects of flooding and crop failures on local population mobility and long-distance migration while controlling for a large set of potential confounders at various scales. The results indicate that flooding has modest effects on mobility that are most visible at moderate intensities and for women and the poor. However, crop failures unrelated to flooding have strong effects on mobility in which households that are not directly affected but live in severely affected areas are the most likely to move. These results point toward an alternate paradigm of disaster-induced mobility that recognizes the significant barriers to migration for vulnerable households as well their substantial local adaptive capacity.
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“And yet, various studies suggest that most people remain in their place of residence even when environmental conditions deteriorate dramatically (Gray and Mueller 2012; Jamero et al. 2017; Khatun et al. 2022; Mallick and Mallick 2021; Penning-Rowsell et al. 2013).”
From Trapped by climate change? (In)voluntary immobility in Bangladesh (2025) · cites this paper as Gray and Mueller 2012
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“The latter finding is in line with recent studies from Bangladesh reporting that flooding has an insignificant or even negative effect on migration (Call et al., 2017; Chen et al., 2017; Gray & Mueller, 2012; Chen & Mueller, 2018).”
From Environmental shocks and migration among a climate-vulnerable population in Bangladesh (2025) · cites this paper as Gray & Mueller, 2012
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İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİNE BAĞLI ÇEVRESEL BOZULMANIN GÖÇ KARARINA ETKİSİ: GENEL BİR BAKIŞ
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“Most future climate migration were predicted to be domestic and intraregional, as international migration was very rare (Gray and Wise 2016), and the effects of climate change on migration were sometimes greater in short-term migration (Gray and Mueller 2012).”
BackgroundHow does perceived environmental pollution affect migration interests: adapt or flee?
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“Nevertheless, the existing literature mainly focuses on the impacts of disasters (Gray and Mueller 2012) and climate change (Feng, Krueger, and Oppenheimer 2010; Grace et al. 2018), while less attention has been paid to environmental pollution.”
BackgroundThe mediating role of residential time perspective between regional decline and place attachment
HATORI, T., SHIRAYANAGI, H., & Matsumura, N. (2023) · Journal of Environmental Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jenvp.2023.102022 · Cited by 7
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Climatic Variability and Internal Migration in Asia: Evidence from Big Microdata
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“For example, Gray and Mueller (2012) found that drought exposures in Ethiopia increase men’s labor migration, especially among land-poor households.”
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“Finally, populations whose main livelihood is ecosystem-based get trapped in this situation because the impacts of climate-related hazards may undermine household resources required to undertake migration (Gray and Mueller, 2012).”
BackgroundResultSalinization of the Bangladesh Delta worsens economic precarity
Chen, J., Mueller, V., Durand, F., Lisco, E., Zhong, Q., Sherin, V. R., & Islam, A. K. M. S. (2022) · Population and Environment · doi:10.1007/s11111-022-00411-2 · Cited by 6
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“Weather adversities in Gray and Mueller (2012a) do not influence mobility, likely because the shocks decrease available resources for migration.”
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“Among different social and economic adaptation approaches, involuntary migration is notable, especially for vulnerable coastal communities in the developing world [11].”
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BackgroundMethodResultInfluentialFamily Well-Being in the Context of Environmental Migration
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Yadav, R. K., Chand, S., & Khan, M. R. (2024) · GeoJournal · doi:10.1007/s10708-024-11267-4 · Cited by 2
“Historically, migration has responded to the pursuit of better economic and social opportunities (McNeill, 1984), influenced by shifting demographic patterns, socioeconomic conditions, and environmental changes (Chauhan, 2012; Gray & Mueller, 2012; Li et al., 2020; Singh, 2019).”
Firm-Level Adaptation to Climate Change in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
Goicoechea, A., & Lang, M. (2025) · The World Bank Research Observer · doi:10.1093/wbro/lkaf001 · Cited by 3
Benazir, B., Nurkhalis, Tursina, T., Fathani, T. F., & Handayani, T. N. (2025) · IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science · doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1479/1/012041 · Cited by 2
“Additionally, the concept of disaster-induced migration highlights the long-lasting impact of such events on urban development and population distribution [83].”
Environmental migration and race during the Great American Drought, 1935–1940
Sichko, C., Zimran, A., & Howlader, A. (2025) · American Journal of Agricultural Economics · doi:10.1111/ajae.12553 · Cited by 2
Trust Me, Stay: Institutional Trust, Drought Perceptions and Migration
Sánchez‐Carrasco, A., & Hernández‐Albújar, Y. (2025) · International Migration · doi:10.1111/imig.70050 · Cited by 3
Does climate risk influence exchange rates?
Ma, Y., Zhao, W., & Ding, Z. (2025) · Global Finance Journal · doi:10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101203 · Cited by 2
Migratory responses to air pollution reduction: Evidence from large-scale desulfurization programme
Mikula, Š., & Pytlíková, M. (2025) · European Economic Review · doi:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105154 · Cited by 3
It's Raining Babies? Flood Exposures and Fertility in Bangladesh
Thiede, B. C., Chen, J., Mueller, V., Hultquist, C., & Salim, Z. (2025) · Population and Development Review · doi:10.1111/padr.70030 · Cited by 2
“While previous studies have documented the effects of flooding on migration in Bangladesh (Call et al. 2017; Chen et al. 2017; Gray and Mueller 2012), our findings suggest that households also adapt demographically via changing fertility behaviors.”
InfluentialSelf-citationClimate change and labor mobility: A longitudinal study of agricultural households in Indonesia
Hastuti, H., Dartanto, T., Halimatussadiah, A., & Rifin, A. (2025) · World Development Perspectives · doi:10.1016/j.wdp.2025.100750 · Cited by 2
Randolph, G. F. (2026) · doi:10.1093/9780197769119.001.0001 · Cited by 2
Jing, X., Jiang, R., Ge, Y., & An, S. (2026) · Emerging Markets Finance and Trade · doi:10.1080/1540496x.2026.2695873 · Cited by 2
(2019) · Journal of Agriculture and Crops · doi:10.32861/jac.51.1.5 · Cited by 2
Punia, A., Singh, R. P., & Chauhan, N. S. (2023) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-24833-7_4 · Cited by 4
Mager, G., & Faße, A. (2023) · Journal of International Development · doi:10.1002/jid.3834 · Cited by 2
Urban Planning Approach and Production of Counter Architecture: A Case Study of New Market, Khulna
Khan, R., & Podder, A. K. (2023) · Journal of Regional and City Planning · doi:10.5614/jpwk.2023.34.3.5 · Cited by 2
“About 33% of the people in the city are migrants (Gray and Mueller, 2012).”
Background
Metadata
- Authors
- Gray, C. L., & Mueller, V.
- Affiliations
- University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (US)
- International Food Policy Research Institute (US)
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2012-04-02
- Volume
- 109
- Issue
- 16
- Pages
- 6000-6005
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC3341015
- OpenAlex
- W1976473400
- Cited by
- 687
- References
- 57
- Citations by year
- 2026: 57 · 2025: 51 · 2024: 63 · 2023: 73 · 2022: 67 · 2021: 64 · 2020: 70 · 2019: 56 · 2018: 41 · 2017: 30 · 2016: 47 · 2015: 19 · 2014: 25 · 2013: 15 · 2012: 9
- FWCI
- 71.49
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Carolina Digital Repository (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) (submittedVersion)
- IFPRI E-brary (International Food Policy Research Institute) (submittedVersion)
- CGSPace A Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- International Food Policy Research Institute (International Food Policy Research Institute) (submittedVersion)
- UNC Libraries
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (2r24hd050924-06)
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R24 HD-050924, R00HD061752)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
- Social Sciences › Geography, Planning and Development › Earthquake and Disaster Impact Studies
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Hydropower, Displacement, Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- natural disasters, human mobility, climate change, floods, crop failure, rural migration, long-distance migration, disaster-induced migration, vulnerable families, women, poverty, adaptive capacity, Bangladesh
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Bangladesh, Disasters, Emigration and Immigration, Family Characteristics, Female, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Population Dynamics, Rural Population, Time Factors, Multivariate Analysis, Young Adult, Floods, Climate Change
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