Natural disasters and population mobility in Bangladesh

“Gray and Mueller (2012) study internal migration in Bangladesh from 1994-2010.”

“…to disaster-inducedmigration,which has often occurred during drought, flooding, earthquake and other destructive climatic phenomena (Munshi, 2003; Gray and Mueller, 2012; Lu et al., 2012). using the company's mapping app, and thus can precisely reflect the population movements between cities.6…”

“The effect of natural hazards such as droughts and flooding can therefore be ambiguous (Chen et al., 2017; Gray & Mueller, 2012).”

“Recent quantitative evidence suggests that individual, permanent migration increases with natural disasters and climate shocks, but not uniformly (3-9).”

“Climate-related migration in rural Bangladesh: a behavioural model.”

“…has paid more and more attention to climatic and environmental factors, such as sea level rise, environmental degradation, weatherrelated crop failures, and extreme weather events (Hugo, 1996; Myers, 2002; Warner et al., 2009; Piguet et al., 2011; Foresight, 2011; Gray and Mueller, 2012).”

“Other trade-offs that occur when abrupt environmental changes stress agricultural systems include changes in rural and urban human migration patterns, as well as loss of cultural resources, which reduces the ability to manage land use effectively [41-43].”

“Furthermore, crowds’ movement between cities is influenced by migrations from rural to urban areas, such as those induced by natural disasters, climate change, and conflicts [2, 74, 121, 152, 169, 172].”

“…mobility patterns in urban environments 15,20 – 24 , the estimation of city population 25 – 27 , the migration induced by natural disasters, climate change, and con fl icts 28 – 32 , the prediction of traf fi c and crowd fl ows 14,33 – 37 , and the forecasting of the spreading of epidemics 38 – 42 .”

“vulnerable populations due to financial constraints (Gray and Mueller, 2012).”

“…and education, employment in the primary sector, rural location, and location in a low-precipitation district, but, consistent with previous studies (Gray and Mueller 2012a; Gray and Mueller 2012b; Mueller et al. 2014), we find that these interactions are largely nonsignificant (Supplement T1).”

“These studies show that adverse environmental conditions tend to increase migration, but not always (Gray and Mueller 2012b).”

“10Belasen and Polachek (2013) provide a useful review of this literature. incidence following natural disasters (Gray and Mueller 2012b, Badiani and Safir 2008, Beine and Parsons 2015), others find ambiguous or negative effects (Gray and Mueller 2012a, Tse 2011).”

“They follow selected households over time but generally do not study or quantify the number of new households appearing in the study area (Bohra-Mishra et al., 2014; Dillon et al., 2011; Gray and Mueller, 2012; Henry et al., 2004; Mueller et al., 2014).”

“…climate conditions and human migration, questions are routinely raised about the presence of heterogeneous populations characterized by differential vulnerability to climate change (Gray and Bilsborrow 2013; Gray and Mueller 2012a; Henry et al. 2004; Mastrorillo et al. 2016; Thiede et al. 2016).”

“Some prior studies have found significant rainfall effects (Gray and Mueller, 2012a; Henry et al., 2004), but recent findings suggest that temperature anomalies may also have consistent independent effects on migration (Bohra-Mishra et al., 2014; Gray and Wise, 2016; Mueller et al., 2014).”

“However, this narrative is increasingly being challenged by a growing body of empirical research which finds that climatic effects vary considerably over space and can even reduce migration by removing necessary household resources (Bohramishra et al., 2014; Gray and Mueller, 2012; Gray and Wise, 2016; Gray and Muelle…”

“3.3 Rural Bangladesh: Innovative Use of Existing Panel Data Gray and Mueller (2012b) challenge the “conventional narrative” often advanced in public and policy dialogue that the poor and vulnerable are most likely to migrate in the face of environmental challenges.”

“mechanisms for climate migration, such as the (agricultural) income channel (Cai et al., 2016; Chen and Mueller, 2018; Gray and Mueller, 2012).”

“Recurring crop losses because of climate change add to the “push” factors that incentivize relocation [70].”

“…change and seeks to relate observed dislocations of people to observed environmental events or stressors (Doevenspeck, 2011; Dun, 2011; Gray, 2008; Gray & Mueller, 2012a, 2012b; Halliday, 2006; Henry, Schoumaker, & Beauchemin, 2004; Jäger, Frühmann, Grünberger, & Vag, 2009; Massey, Axinn, &…”

“, 2014), or reverse effects, namely situations where adverse climate factors may reduce (and not increase) emigration flows (Gray and Mueller, 2012).”

“In Bangladesh, a place visibly experiencing the early effects of climate change through increased flooding, it was found that crop failures (and not flooding) better explained people’s propensity to migrate permanently (Gray and Mueller 2010).”

“…Daniel Lincke, Jochen Hinkel Writing – original draft: Daniel Lincke, Jochen Hinkel Writing – review & editing: Daniel Lincke, Jochen Hinkel 1 of 14 Earth’s Future (DeWaard et al., 2015; Gray & Mueller, 2012) or on small island states (Arenstam Gibbons & Nicholls, 2006; Speelman et al., 2017).”

“Drawing on a longitudinal survey of 102 rural communities distributed across multiple regions of Bangladesh, Gray and Mueller [ 55] conclude that “flooding undoubtedly causes substantial short-term population displacement but it appears that this translates into few long-term moves”.”

“…sites in which migration was only a coping strategy accessible to some, their last resort, with others staying in place because of conflict or poverty, or because disasters decreased financial resources with which to migrate (Foresight 2011; Gray and Mueller 2012; Penning-Rowsell et al. 2013).”

“Compared to estimates from other neighboring countries, Hassani-Mahmooei and Parris (2012) predict between 3 million and 10 million internal migrants in Bangladesh over the next 40 years.”

“…to the role of female migration (Findley, 1994; Gray & Mueller, 2011), the impact of natural disasters versus slow-onset climatic changes (Gray & Mueller, 2012; Halliday, 2006), or even sign of the relation between climatic factors and migration (see Black, Kniveton, & Schmidt-Verkerk, 2011;…”

“In addition, the effect of gender highlights that women are actually more likely to migrate (see also Gray and Mueller 2012a).”

“This work considerably expands our previous study on this topic (Gray 2009a), and complements recent work by ourselves and others on other aspects of the migrationenvironment nexus (Carr 2008; Gray 2009b; Massey et al. 2010; Fussell et al. 2010; Dillon et al. 2011; Gray and Mueller 2012; López-Carr 2012; Gray and Bils…”

“Numerous studies using empirical models have shown that climate variability significantly influences migration in Indonesia [5], Mexico [6], South Africa [7], Bangladesh [8], Pakistan [9] and many other countries (e.”

“…change or event, most migrants prefer to move relatively short distances, to places where they already have ties that allow them to exchange their human, social, and cultural capital, and to stay within their nations’ own boundaries (Findley 1994; Gray and Mueller 2012; Henry et al. 2004).”

“non-improved seed, or having access to variable social safety nets from kin or institutions) [13,14], or shocks can universally affect communities or regions (e.”

“For example, relatively poorer and smallscale farming community members can liquefy fixed assets like land property to help cover the cost of obtaining non-natural resource dependent employment in urban areas, which tends to be more financially profitable and less uncertain than farming (Gray and Mueller, 2012; Rahman…”

“Scholars have shown that such inequality can be even worse and more pronounced in socially vulnerable groups [29].”

“Additionally, the social disaster resulting from population outmigration has been shown to have the biggest impact on community social stability (Black et al., 2013; Dun, 2011; Gray & Mueller, 2012; Peek, 2019).”

“A gravity model analysis Backhaus et al. (2015) 2015 1 9 Climatic factors as determinants of international migration Beine and Parsons (2015) 2015 1 45 Climate Variability and International Migration: an empirical analysis Coniglio and Pesce (2015) 2015 1 44 Natural Disasters, Migration and Education: Drabo and Mbaye…”

“In some cases, a climate shock may lead to an immediate migration response (Gray and Mueller 2012b).”

“However, while migration was ‘modestly affected’ by flooding there was more of an effect from crop failure due to a lack of precipitation (Gray and Mueller, 2012).”

“Moreover, studies note that crop failure and related upstream variables like rainfall deficit can predict migration that may drive instability if migrants are competing with established populations for jobs and resources (Gray and Mueller 2012; Hunter et al. 2013).”

“…of scholarship and research on climate change and migration, which dates back three decades (Tickell 1990, Myers 1993, Myers 2002, Gemenne 2011, Marchiori and Schumacher 2011, Gray and Mueller 2012, Bohra-Mishra et al 2014, Mcleman 2014, Zickgraf et al 2016, Grace et al 2018, Piguet et al 2018).”

“Climate change-induced IDPs in Bangladesh have been trying to cope with the adverse scenarios of surroundings where different forms of barriers are hindering the adaptation to climate change in the coastal areas of Bangladesh (Berchin et al., 2017; Gray and Mueller, 2012).”

“Following this same line of thought, Gray and Mueller (2012) noted that migration in normal conditions is selective of people with above-average access to human, social, and financial capital, which conflicts with the expectation that disadvantaged persons are most likely to be displaced by climate…”

“Farmers with larger land holdings hope to recover even if they lose a significant portion of their farm produce due to an environmental crisis (Gray & Mueller, 2012).”

“…and wage labourers will have to reduce their food consumption to cope with the effects of rainfall variability or they will have to seek alternative income sources, for instance through migration (cf. Findlay & Geddes, 2011; Gray & Mueller, 2012; Poncelet, Gemenne, Martiniello, & Bousetta, 2010).”

“…2010; Groen and Polivka 2008), droughts in Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, and Mexico (Gray and Mueller 2012a; Henry, Schoumaker, and Beauchemin 2004; Nawrotzki, Riosmena, and Hunter 2012), earthquakes in El Salvador (Halliday 2006; Yang 2008), and flooding in Bangladesh (Gray and Mueller 2012b).”

“Gray and Mueller (2012b) show that severe droughts in Ethiopia increase male (usually long-distance) mobility from 5.7 to 9.8 percent a year.”

“5 Halliday (2006) finds that earthquakes have a negative effect on international migration flows, while Paul (2005), Gray and Mueller (2012), and Bohra-Mishra et al. (2014) find, respectively, that tornados, floods, and natural disasters generally had no significant impact on internal migration.”

“Gray and Mueller (2012) first challenged the conventional narrative of “environmental refugees” in Bangladesh, finding a greater role for drought-related crop failure (than flooding) on permanent migration.”

“According to Gray and Mueller (2012), a positive and significant relationship does exist between crop failures, which are primarily driven by rainfall variability, and long-term migration.”

“…they tend to report mixed results: while several scholars report that environmental changes lead to migration (i.e., Mueller et al. 2014; Dun 2011; Massey et al. 2010), others suggest that they may not have a significant effect on migration (Bohra-Mishra et al. 2014; Gray and Mueller 2012).”

“A study on the Indian State of Mumbai by Hallegatte et al. (2010) assess the risk and benefits of adaptation due to flood exposure and provides evidence of potential sensitivity and vulnerability to heavy precipitation signifying that improving drainage as part of disaster risk management and extended insurance could…”

“Existing research provides inconclusive evidence, likely driven by the external invalidity of existing survey data, and application of diverse methodologies and definitions of migration and exposure (Halliday 2006; Feng et al. 2010; Gray and Mueller 2012; Marchiori et al. 2012; Gray and Bilsborrow 2013; Bohra-Mishra e…”

“…migration responses to climate change, a few of which we cite here (Bohra-Mishra et al. 2014; Curtis and Schneider 2011; Gray and Bilsborrow 2013; Gray and Mueller 2012a, b; Henry et al. 2004; Hunter et al. 2013a, b; Mueller et al. 2014; Stal 2011; Dun 2011; Shen and Gemenne 2011; Renaud et al.…”

“, Adhikari 2013; Lubkemann 2004; Ruiz and Vargas-Silva 2013), individuals who migrate temporarily or permanently due to natural disasters (e.g., Asad 2015; Fussell et al. 2010; Gray et al. 2014; Gray and Mueller 2012; Groen and Polivka 2010), or those who are displaced permanently by development projects (e.”