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Natural disasters and population mobility in Bangladesh
Open accessAbstract
The consequences of environmental change for human migration have gained increasing attention in the context of climate change and recent large-scale natural disasters, but as yet relatively few large-scale and quantitative studies have addressed this issue. We investigate the consequences of climate-related natural disasters for long-term population mobility in rural Bangladesh, a region particularly vulnerable to environmental change, using longitudinal survey data from 1,700 households spanning a 15-y period. Multivariate event history models are used to estimate the effects of flooding and crop failures on local population mobility and long-distance migration while controlling for a large set of potential confounders at various scales. The results indicate that flooding has modest effects on mobility that are most visible at moderate intensities and for women and the poor. However, crop failures unrelated to flooding have strong effects on mobility in which households that are not directly affected but live in severely affected areas are the most likely to move. These results point toward an alternate paradigm of disaster-induced mobility that recognizes the significant barriers to migration for vulnerable households as well their substantial local adaptive capacity.
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“And yet, various studies suggest that most people remain in their place of residence even when environmental conditions deteriorate dramatically (Gray and Mueller 2012; Jamero et al. 2017; Khatun et al. 2022; Mallick and Mallick 2021; Penning-Rowsell et al. 2013).”
From Trapped by climate change? (In)voluntary immobility in Bangladesh (2025) · cites this paper as Gray and Mueller 2012
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“The latter finding is in line with recent studies from Bangladesh reporting that flooding has an insignificant or even negative effect on migration (Call et al., 2017; Chen et al., 2017; Gray & Mueller, 2012; Chen & Mueller, 2018).”
From Environmental shocks and migration among a climate-vulnerable population in Bangladesh (2025) · cites this paper as Gray & Mueller, 2012
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“For example, land-poor households in Ecuador were most likely to migrate in response to rainfall variability (Gray & Bilsborrow, 2013), while intense poverty may lessen household ability to migrate in the face of disaster as demonstrated during floods in Bangladesh (Gray & Mueller, 2012).”
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“Evidence for this hypothesis has been provided in many studies (Dell et al., 2014; Bohra-Mishra et al., 2014; Mueller et al., 2014; Gray and Mueller, 2012).”
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“…First, agricultural output is regressed on the disaster variables with other controls following the empirical model of Mendelsohn et al. 3As in other studies, we use the terms “natural disasters” and “weather shocks” interchangeably [Gray and Mueller (2012), Gröger and Zylberberg (2016)].”
BackgroundMethodIslam, M. (2022) · Weather Climate and Society · doi:10.1175/wcas-d-21-0124.1 · Cited by 16
Yang, T., Yu, N., Yang, T., & Hong, T. (2023) · International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction · doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103643 · Cited by 17
Topic modelling the mobility response to heat and drought
Zander, K. K., Baggen, H. S., & Garnett, S. T. (2023) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-023-03524-1 · Cited by 15
“There are different apaches to estimated LDA parameters, such as Gibbs sampling (Griffiths and Steyvers 2004) or, as applied here, the variational method (Blei et al.”
MethodRural migration under climate and land systems change
Salerno, J., Gaughan, A. E., Warrier, R., Boone, R. B., Stevens, F. R., Keys, P. W., Mangewa, L. J., Mombo, F. M., de Sherbinin, A., Hartter, J., et al. (2024) · Nature Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s41893-024-01396-6 · Cited by 21
“…systems have found that rainfall variability or drought can act as a migration driver but often only for certain sub-populations, including the poor 27 , those with social networks 28,29 or men 22,30 ; conversely, these stressors may limit migration among other cohorts, such as women for the…”
Optimal Environmental Tax Rate in an Open Economy with Labor Migration—An E-DSGE Model Approach
Chan, Y. T. (2019) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su11195147 · Cited by 16
“The Impact of Environmental Quality on Migration As pointed out by Gray and Bilsborrow [29], very few existing studies quantitatively estimate the relationship between environmental quality and migration (Note that there are also papers studying the effect on migration of other environmental conditions, such as rainfa…”
Infrastructure performance prediction under Climate-Induced Disasters using data analytics
Haggag, M., Yosri, A., El-Dakhakhni, W. W., & Hassini, E. (2021) · International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction · doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102121 · Cited by 16
Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Production in Bangladesh: A Review
(2019) · Journal of Agriculture and Crops · doi:10.32861/jac.51.6.14 · Cited by 16
“Gray and Mueller [67] found that of the total household expenditure, 20% damaged because of flooding and 12% for crop failure in every event.”
BackgroundImpacts of transient and permanent environmental shocks on internal migration
Pavel, T., Hasan, S. A., Halim, N., & Mozumder, P. (2018) · Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/00036846.2022.2087859 · Cited by 21
“We focused on Bangladesh, a developing nation, as natural disasters severely affect low-income people due to their dependence on natural resources and the lack of adaptive capacity and safety nets (O’Neill and Oppenheimer 2002).”
BackgroundResultInfluentialDrought Exposure and Accuracy: Motivated Reasoning in Climate Change Beliefs
Zappalà, G. (2023) · Environmental and Resource Economics · doi:10.1007/s10640-023-00779-1 · Cited by 17
“2015; Gray and Mueller 2012; Chen et al.”
BackgroundClimate change and migration in developing countries: evidence and implications for PRISE countries
Waldinger, M., & Fankhauser, S. (2015) · London School of Economics and Political Science Research Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) · Cited by 14
Climate and marriage in the Netherlands, 1871–1937
Jennings, J. A., & Gray, C. (2017) · Population and Environment · doi:10.1007/s11111-016-0266-7 · Cited by 16
Self-citationNaoi, M., Sato, K., Tanaka, Y., Matsuura, H., & Nagamatsu, S. (2020) · Population and Environment · doi:10.1007/s11111-020-00346-6 · Cited by 15
“For example, previous studies examine the impact of earthquakes (Xu and Wang 2019), flooding (Boustan et al. 2012; Gray and Mueller 2012; Husby et al. 2014), and hurricanes (Myers et al. 2008; Loebach 2016; Deryugina 2017) on subsequent migration and population changes.”
ResultChambers, K. G., Carrico, A. R., & Cook, S. M. (2021) · Environmental Science Water Research & Technology · doi:10.1039/d1ew00263e · Cited by 13
Ecosystem Services and Land Rental Markets: Producer Costs of Bat Population Crashes
Manning, D. T., & Ando, A. W. (2022) · Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists · doi:10.1086/720303 · Cited by 14
“…blooms on infant health, and economists have used natural shocks to quantify the impacts of climate change (Carleton and Hsiang 2016), temperature shocks (Dell et al. 2012), and natural disasters such as hurricanes (De Silva et al. 2010) and other extreme weather events (Gray and Mueller 2012).”
BackgroundThe links between climate change and migration: a review of South Asian experiences
Ahmed, M. N. Q., Givens, J. E., & Arredondo, A. (2024) · SN Social Sciences · doi:10.1007/s43545-024-00864-2 · Cited by 21
“For instance, during flooding in Bangladesh, people often cannot afford to relocate (Gray and Mueller 2012).”
Environmental migration and non-migration: Learning through an intergenerational lens
Mallick, B., & Hunter, L. M. (2024) · Migration Studies · doi:10.1093/migration/mnae031 · Cited by 17
López, E., & Greenlee, A. J. (2016) · Applied Geography · doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2016.08.013 · Cited by 14
Revisiting the climate driver and inhibitor mechanisms of international migration
Wesselbaum, D. (2020) · Climate and Development · doi:10.1080/17565529.2020.1711700 · Cited by 14
Asylum Migration in OECD Countries: In Search of Lost Well-Being
Paniagua, J., Peiró‐Palomino, J., & Picazo‐Tadeo, A. J. (2020) · Social Indicators Research · doi:10.1007/s11205-020-02528-z · Cited by 15
Population responses to the 1976 South Dakota drought: Insights for wider drought migration research
McLeman, R. A., Fontanella, F., Greig, C., Heath, G., & Robertson, C. (2021) · Population Space and Place · doi:10.1002/psp.2465 · Cited by 16
A literature review on the space of flows
Jin, B., Yang, W., Li, X., Sha, J., & Wang, X. (2021) · Arabian Journal of Geosciences · doi:10.1007/s12517-021-07632-z · Cited by 14
Metadata
- Authors
- Gray, C. L., & Mueller, V.
- Affiliations
- University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (US)
- International Food Policy Research Institute (US)
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2012-04-02
- Volume
- 109
- Issue
- 16
- Pages
- 6000-6005
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC3341015
- OpenAlex
- W1976473400
- Cited by
- 687
- References
- 57
- Citations by year
- 2026: 57 · 2025: 51 · 2024: 63 · 2023: 73 · 2022: 67 · 2021: 64 · 2020: 70 · 2019: 56 · 2018: 41 · 2017: 30 · 2016: 47 · 2015: 19 · 2014: 25 · 2013: 15 · 2012: 9
- FWCI
- 71.49
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Carolina Digital Repository (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) (submittedVersion)
- IFPRI E-brary (International Food Policy Research Institute) (submittedVersion)
- CGSPace A Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- International Food Policy Research Institute (International Food Policy Research Institute) (submittedVersion)
- UNC Libraries
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (2r24hd050924-06)
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R24 HD-050924, R00HD061752)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
- Social Sciences › Geography, Planning and Development › Earthquake and Disaster Impact Studies
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Hydropower, Displacement, Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- natural disasters, human mobility, climate change, floods, crop failure, rural migration, long-distance migration, disaster-induced migration, vulnerable families, women, poverty, adaptive capacity, Bangladesh
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Bangladesh, Disasters, Emigration and Immigration, Family Characteristics, Female, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Population Dynamics, Rural Population, Time Factors, Multivariate Analysis, Young Adult, Floods, Climate Change
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