The DOI matches its Crossref record; 3 of the 3 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Advancing front of old-age human survival
Published version of a preprint
Abstract
Significance: Old-age mortality decline has driven recent lifespan increases, but there is no agreement about the age pattern of old-age deaths. For example, some argue that old-age deaths should become compressed at advanced ages, and others argue that old-age deaths should become more dispersed with age. Here we show, for five decades in 20 developed countries, that old-age survival follows an advancing front, like a traveling wave. We make and test several predictions that support the existence of this front. Our unexpected result underscores the plasticity of old-age human mortality, with deaths steadily delayed as societies develop, and supports an ongoing increase in the age of transition to disability. We find no evidence of an impending limit to human lifespan.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Death rates beyond age 65 years can still plausibly go lower than the composite lowest death rates shown.
“Death rates beyond age 65 years can still plausibly go lower than the composite lowest death rates shown here25”
From Implausibility of radical life extension in humans in the twenty-first century (2024) · cites this paper as [25]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
Mortality and Morbidity Trends: Is There Compression of Morbidity?
Crimmins, E. M., & Beltran-Sanchez, H. (2011) · The Journals of Gerontology Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences · doi:10.1093/geronb/gbq088 · Cited by 694
Evidence for a limit to human lifespan
Dong, X., Milholland, B., & Vijg, J. (2016) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature19793 · Cited by 495
The plateau of human mortality: Demography of longevity pioneers
Barbi, E., Lagona, F., Marsili, M., Vaupel, J. W., & Wachter, K. W. (2018) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aat3119 · Cited by 299
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 23
- 10.1038/nature08984 · DOI · Paper page
- 10.1257/jep.13.1.117 · DOI
- 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2004.00001.x · DOI
- 10.2307/2061660 · DOI · Paper page
- 10.1257/jep.20.3.97 · DOI
- 10.1038/35041682 · DOI · Paper page
- J Poterba S Venti DA Wise What determines end-of-life assets? A retrospective view (National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge MA) Technical Report WP21682. (2015). · DOI
- 10.1126/science.aam9309 · DOI · Paper page
- 10.2105/AJPH.2009.172627 · DOI
- 10.2307/2648085 · DOI
- 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2005.00092.x · DOI
- 10.4054/DemRes.2010.22.17 · DOI
- 10.4054/DemRes.2000.3.6 · DOI
- 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2010.00344.x · DOI
- 10.1073/pnas.1518393112 · DOI · Paper page
- 10.1353/dem.2005.0003 · DOI
- 10.1001/jama.2016.4226 · DOI · Paper page
- B Bosworth, G Burtless, K Zhang, Later retirement, inequality in old age, and the growing gap in longevity between rich and poor. Economic Studies at Brookings (Brookings Institution, Washington DC, 2016).
- 10.1073/pnas.0501470103 · DOI
- RD Lee, LR Carter, Modeling and forecasting US mortality. J Am Stat Assoc 87, 659–671 (1992).
- 10.1038/35015561 · DOI
- 10.1257/0895330053147921 · DOI
- ; R Core Team R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, 2016).
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Dynamics of life expectancy and life span equality
Aburto, J. M., Villavicencio, F., Basellini, U., Kjærgaard, S., & Vaupel, J. W. (2020) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1915884117 · Cited by 254
Implausibility of radical life extension in humans in the twenty-first century
Olshansky, S. J., Willcox, B. J., Demetrius, L., & Beltrán-Sánchez, H. (2024) · Nature Aging · doi:10.1038/s43587-024-00702-3 · Cited by 115
Metadata
- Authors
- Zuo, W., Jiang, S., Guo, Z., Feldman, M. W., & Tuljapurkar, S.
- Affiliations
- Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94040;
- School of Sociology, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, People’s Republic of China
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2018-10-16
- Volume
- 115
- Issue
- 44
- Pages
- 11209-11214
- ISSN
- 0027-8424
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC6217443
- Cited by
- 63
- References
- 3
- Language
- en
- Funders
- Morrison Institute for Population and Resource Studies, Stanford University (na)
- Huazhong University of Science and Technology (na)
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
