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Cited by 694Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk ManagementAging, Health, and DisabilityChronic Disease Management Strategies

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 108 of the 108 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; none of the 53 sources its claims cite is checked for support yet.

Mortality and Morbidity Trends: Is There Compression of Morbidity?

Open access
Crimmins, E. M., Beltran-Sanchez, H.·2011·The Journals of Gerontology Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences
DOI 10.1093/geronb/gbq088PMC PMC3001754
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Abstract

OBJECTIVE: This paper reviews trends in mortality and morbidity to evaluate whether there has been a compression of morbidity. METHODS: Review of recent research and analysis of recent data for the United States relating mortality change to the length of life without 1 of 4 major diseases or loss of mobility functioning. RESULTS: Mortality declines have slowed down in the United States in recent years, especially for women. The prevalence of disease has increased. Age-specific prevalence of a number of risk factors representing physiological status has stayed relatively constant; where risks decline, increased usage of effective drugs is responsible. Mobility functioning has deteriorated. Length of life with disease and mobility functioning loss has increased between 1998 and 2008. DISCUSSION: Empirical findings do not support recent compression of morbidity when morbidity is defined as major disease and mobility functioning loss.

Overview

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

This review and empirical analysis finds that recent U.S. mortality declines have slowed, disease prevalence has increased, and mobility functioning has deteriorated, so life with disease and functioning loss has expanded. The authors conclude that empirical findings do not support compression of morbidity when morbidity is defined as major disease and mobility functioning loss.

Key findings

  • Mortality declines slowed in the United States, especially for women; U.S. life expectancy in 2006 was 78 years at birth and 18 years at age 65, compared with Japan’s 83 and 21 years.
  • Disease prevalence increased: older men and women showed increased cancer prevalence, diabetes increased across much of the adult age range, and CVD conditions increased among older males.
  • Mobility functioning loss increased across ages; for example, among those aged 80+, mobility disability rose from 27.68% to 41.74% for men and from 42.84% to 51.26% for women between 1998 and 2006.
  • Life expectancy with disease and with mobility functioning loss increased between 1998 and 2006: at age 20, years with at least one disease rose from 10.0 to 12.3 for men and 11.1 to 13.0 for women; years unable to function rose from 3.8 to 5.8 for men and 7.3 to 9.8 for women.

Methods

  • The paper reviews recent research on mortality and morbidity trends and analyzes recent U.S. data linking mortality change to length of life without one of four major diseases or loss of mobility functioning.
  • Empirical analysis uses National Health Interview Survey data for the noninstitutionalized U.S. population aged 20 and older in 1998 and 2006, with self-reported coronary heart disease, myocardial infarction, stroke, cancer, and diabetes, plus an indicator of mobility functioning loss based on inability to perform at least one of four tasks.
  • Official U.S. life tables for 1998 and 2006 are combined with prevalence data using the Sullivan approach to healthy life expectancy.

Limitations

  • The authors state that empirical results could overstate recent increases in disease because it is impossible to hold constant greater awareness of health problems and improved diagnosis and screening.
  • The authors note they did not consider depression and mental illness, which cause much disability and functioning loss, and they examined high-level functioning rather than severe disability.
  • The text makes evident that the empirical analysis relies on cross-sectional prevalence and life-table methods, so it cannot directly distinguish incidence from longer survival with disease; the abstract refers to 1998–2008 while the empirical tables use 1998 and 2006.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1093/geronb/gbq088

Cites

108 of 108 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Verification

Claims the paper makes

0 of 53 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged

  • Findingown data
    § Abstract

    The percentage of people with mobility difficulty increased markedly across the age range in this eight-year period.

    “Table 3 shows the percentage of people with mobility difficulty increased markedly across the age range in this eight-year period.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data
    § Abstract

    The prevalence of disease has increased.

    “The prevalence of disease has increased.”
    • Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
      “There is no hint of a declining prevalence of disease over these eight years.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data
    § Abstract

    Men also gained more life expectancy at age 65 than women (1.0 vs. 0.5 years).

    “Men also gained more life expectancy at age 65 than women (1.0 vs. 0.5 years).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingown data
    § Abstract

    Mortality declines have slowed down in the United States in recent years, especially for women.

    “Mortality declines have slowed down in the United States in recent years, especially for women.”
    • Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
      “Mortality decline in the United States over the 1998–2006 period has been relatively slow, particularly for women.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data
    § Abstract

    Diabetes increases are seen through much of the adult age range.

    “Diabetes increases are seen through much of the adult age range.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • It may state two separate claims as one. 34
  • Probably not a substantial claim. 9

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data
    § Abstract

    At ages 20 and 65 over the eight years from 1998 to 2006, life expectancy with disease increased and years without disease decreased.

    “At each age over the eight years, there is an increase in the life expectancy with disease and a decrease in the years without disease.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data
    § Abstract

    At ages 20 and 65 over the eight years from 1998 to 2006, expected years unable to function increased and years able to function decreased.

    “The same is true for functioning loss, an increase in expected years unable to function and a decrease in years able to function.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data
    § Abstract

    Between 1998 and 2006, survival curves for both survivors without functioning problems and survivors without disease shifted inward or leftward, indicating less survival without diseases and functioning loss.

    “For the curves representing both survivors without functioning problems and survivors without disease, later curves have shifted inward or leftward, indicating less survival without diseases and functioning loss.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data
    § Abstract

    The most striking change over the ten-year period is the increase in all the CVD conditions among older males; for females, the increase among the oldest group only occurs in the prevalence of stroke.

    “The most striking change over the ten-year period is the increase in all the CVD conditions among older males; for females, the increase among the oldest group only occurs in the prevalence of stroke.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data
    § Abstract

    Overall survival increased from 1998 to 2006, shown by an outward shift of the survival curve.

    “Figure 1 shows the increase in overall survival from 1998 to 2006 as a move outward of the survival curve, indicating more survival time.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingcitation
    § Abstract

    These large increases in functioning loss have not been previously reported across the age range, although Martin and colleagues (2009) reported recent increases in difficulty performing these functions for 50- to 64-year-olds.

    “These large increases in functioning loss have not been previously reported across the age range, although Martin and colleagues (2009) reported recent increases in difficulty performing these functions for 50- to 64-year-olds.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Martin and colleagues (2009)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data
    § Abstract

    At age 20, life expectancy for men increased by 1.1 years from 55.0 to 56.1 years; for women, the increase was only 0.7 years from 60.3 to 61.0 years.

    “At age 20, life expectancy for men increased by 1.1 years from 55.0 to 56.1 years; for women, the increase was only 0.7 years from 60.3 to 61.0 years (Table 4).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation
    § Abstract

    Decrease in cancer mortality after 1990 resulted from both decrease in incidence and increase in survival.

    “Decrease in mortality after 1990 resulted from both decrease in incidence and increase in survival (Coleman et al., 2008).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Coleman et al., 2008 source

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation
    § Abstract

    Several studies have reported significant decreases after the 1980s in the onset of disability or reductions in the transition from less severe to more severe disability.

    “Several studies have reported significant decreases after the 1980s in the onset of disability or reductions in the transition from less severe to more severe disability (Cai & Lubitz, 2007; Crimmins, Hayward, Hagedorn, Saito, & Brouard, 2009; Crimmins, Saito, & Reynolds, 1997; Manton, Corder, & Stallard, 1993; Wolf, Mendes de Leon, & Glass, 2007).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Cai & Lubitz, 2007 source
    • cites Crimmins, Hayward, Hagedorn, Saito, & Brouard, 2009 source
    • cites Crimmins, Saito, & Reynolds, 1997 source

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationcitation
    § Abstract

    Cancer survival has increased, but this has not resulted from major changes in cancer incidence, with the exception of lung cancer.

    “It is clear that cancer survival has increased, but this has not resulted from major changes in cancer incidence, with the exception of lung cancer (Garcia, 2010; Preston & Ho, 2010).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Garcia, 2010

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Preston & Ho, 2010

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Premisecitation
    § Abstract

    Crimmins, Hayward, and Saito (1994) report fairly similar results comparing the 1984 and 1994 cohorts of the Longitudinal Studies of Aging.

    “Crimmins Hayward, and Saito (1994) report fairly similar results comparing the 1984 and 1994 cohorts of the Longitudinal Studies of Aging.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Crimmins Hayward, and Saito (1994)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation
    § Abstract

    The most promising trends for older persons have been in the reduction of high cholesterol and, more recently, a reduction in hypertension.

    “The most promising trends for older persons have been in the reduction of high cholesterol and, more recently, a reduction in hypertension (Crimmins et al., 2005; Crimmins et al., 2010b).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Crimmins et al., 2005 source
    • cites Crimmins et al., 2010b

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

    Premisenone given
    § Abstract

    Most other analyses of changes in healthy life for the United States have examined change in life expectancy with and without disability rather than disease or functioning loss.

    “Most other analyses of changes in healthy life for the United States have examined change in life expectancy with and without disability rather than disease or functioning loss.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation
    § Abstract

    The most adverse change in physiological status in recent years is the marked increase in obesity, which has occurred across the adult age range.

    “The most adverse change in physiological status in recent years is the marked increase in obesity, which has occurred across the adult age range (Ogden et al., 2006).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Ogden et al., 2006 source

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation
    § Abstract

    Stroke incidence does not appear to have changed consistently over the period, whereas mortality was declining.

    “Stroke incidence does not appear to have changed consistently over the period, whereas mortality was declining.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation
    § Abstract

    In the 1980s, increased life expectancy in the United States was concentrated in years without disability, although this followed a decade when this was not true.

    “For instance, in the 1980s, increased life expectancy in the United States was concentrated in years without disability, although this followed a decade when this was not true (Crimmins, Saito, & Ingegneri, 1997).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Crimmins, Saito, & Ingegneri, 1997 source

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation
    § Abstract

    Age-adjusted death rates from diabetes declined from 1970 to the mid-1980s but increased substantially (about 47%) from 1987 to 2002.

    “Age-adjusted death rates from diabetes declined from 1970 to the mid-1980s but increased substantially (about 47%) from 1987 to 2002 (Jemal, Ward, et al., 2005).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Jemal, Ward, et al., 2005 source

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisenone given
    § Abstract

    Data on changes in incidence of disability and functioning problems are scarce and generally limited to the older population.

    “As indicated previously, data on changes in incidence of disability and functioning problems are scarce and generally limited to the older population.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § Abstract

    Evidence indicates increased survival among men who have a stroke with some decrease in the likelihood of having a stroke for both men and women.

    “Thus, the evidence indicates increased survival among men who have a stroke with some decrease in the likelihood of having a stroke for both men and women.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation
    § Abstract

    Cai and Lubitz (2007) found increases in the length of nondisabled or active life and decreases in the length of life with disability between 1992 and 2002.

    “Cai and Lubitz (2007) using data from the Medicare Beneficiary Survey found increases in the length of nondisabled or active life and decreases in the length of life with disability between 1992 and 2002.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Cai and Lubitz (2007) source

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation
    § Abstract

    Evidence on trends in recovery rates from disability is conflicting, although both Cai and Lubitz (2007) and Crimmins and colleagues (2009) report increased recovery in recent years in national samples of older Americans.

    “The evidence from the same studies on trends in recovery rates from disability is conflicting, although both Cai and Lubitz (2007) and Crimmins and colleagues (2009) report increased recovery in recent years in national samples of older Americans.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Cai & Lubitz, 2007 source
    • cites Crimmins and colleagues (2009)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation
    § Abstract

    Crimmins, Hayward, and Saito (1994) find increases in the length of disability-free life and no change in the length of disabled life resulting from decreases in rates of disability onset and increases in rates of disability recovery.

    “They find increases in the length of disability-free life and no change in the length of disabled life resulting from the decreases in the rates of disability onset and increases in rates of disability recovery.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Crimmins Hayward, and Saito (1994)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation
    § Abstract

    One marker of inflammation (C-reactive protein) and one marker of glucose regulation (glycosylated hemoglobin) have stayed roughly the same over the entire period from the late 1980s to about 2005 for persons aged 65 years and older.

    “On the other hand, the evidence is that one marker of inflammation, C-reactive protein (CRP), and one marker of glucose regulation, glycosylated hemoglobin, have stayed roughly the same over the entire period from the late 1980s to about 2005 for persons aged 65 years and older (Crimmins et al., 2010b).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Crimmins et al., 2010b

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation
    § Abstract

    CVD mortality rates declined remarkably between 1970 and 2000, accounting for about 60% of the increase in life expectancy at birth during this period.

    “Mortality rates from CVD experienced a remarkable decline between 1970 and 2000 accounting for about 60% of the increase in life expectancy at birth during this period (Beltrán-Sánchez, Preston, & Canudas-Romo, 2008).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Beltrán-Sánchez, Preston, & Canudas-Romo, 2008 source

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § Abstract

    Evidence indicates increased survival among those who have heart attacks; however, it is not until recently that there has been a decrease in the likelihood of actually having a heart attack by a given age.

    “Thus, the evidence indicates increased survival among those who have heart attacks; however, it is not until recently that there has been a decrease in the likelihood of actually having a heart attack by a given age.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationcitation
    § Abstract

    No change in age of disability onset is inconsistent with compression of morbidity and consistent with dynamic equilibrium.

    “The decline in disabled life is evidence of some compression of morbidity; however, they also found no change in age of disability onset, an inconsistency with compression of morbidity (but consistent with dynamic equilibrium).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation
    § Abstract

    One explanation for the decrease in disability has been that diseases have become less disabling as their progression has been halted before disability; this is true of both heart disease and arthritis.

    “One of the explanations for the decrease in disability has been that diseases have become less disabling as their progression has been halted before disability. This is true of both heart disease and arthritis, two of the most common causes of disability (Crimmins & Saito, 2000; Freedman et al., 2007).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Crimmins & Saito, 2000 source
    • cites Freedman et al., 2007 source

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationnone given
    § Abstract

    Both reductions in high cholesterol and hypertension are due primarily to increased use and efficacy of prescription drugs, not to reduction in the proportion of persons ever diagnosed with the condition.

    “Both of these changes are due primarily to increased use and efficacy of prescription drugs not to reduction in the proportion of persons ever diagnosed with the condition.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Study design and conductnone given
    § Abstract

    We have purposefully examined an indicator of functioning ability that represents fairly robust functioning and that is not likely to be significantly affected by environmental or social changes.

    “We have purposefully examined an indicator of functioning ability that represents fairly robust functioning and that is not likely to be significantly affected by environmental or social changes.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § DISCUSSION

    Our results are quite different from other analyses of changes in healthy life because our definition of healthy life differs.

    “Our results are quite different from other analyses of changes in healthy life because our definition of healthy life differs.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation
    § DISCUSSION

    The proportion of the population with multiple diseases and the number of diseases comorbid in an older individual has increased.

    “Although we have examined the increased prevalence in a number of individual diseases, we should note that the proportion of the population with multiple diseases and the number of diseases comorbid in an older individual has also increased (Crimmins & Saito, 2000).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Crimmins & Saito, 2000 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

    Interpretationnone given
    § DISCUSSION

    The increasing prevalence of disease may to some extent reflect better diagnostics.

    “The increasing prevalence of disease may to some extent reflect better diagnostics, but there is little indication of less disease.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation
    § DISCUSSION

    Much disability and functioning loss is caused by depression and mental illness, which the study did not consider.

    “Heart disease, stroke, diabetes, arthritis and musculoskeletal problems, cognitive loss, and obesity are major causes of functioning problems and disability; however, much disability and functioning loss is caused by depression and mental illness, which we have not considered here (Crimmins & Saito, 2000; Ettinger et al., 1994; Jagger et al., 2007; Martin et al., 2009).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Crimmins & Saito, 2000 source
    • cites Ettinger et al., 1994 source
    • cites Jagger et al., 2007 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation
    § DISCUSSION

    Heart disease, stroke, diabetes, arthritis and musculoskeletal problems, cognitive loss, and obesity are major causes of functioning problems and disability.

    “Heart disease, stroke, diabetes, arthritis and musculoskeletal problems, cognitive loss, and obesity are major causes of functioning problems and disability; however, much disability and functioning loss is caused by depression and mental illness, which we have not considered here (Crimmins & Saito, 2000; Ettinger et al., 1994; Jagger et al., 2007; Martin et al., 2009).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Crimmins & Saito, 2000 source
    • cites Ettinger et al., 1994 source
    • cites Jagger et al., 2007 source

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationnone given
    § DISCUSSION

    Some increases in the prevalence of conditions like heart disease and the incidence of conditions like cancer may result from greater awareness of health problems and improved methods of diagnosis and screening.

    “Some of the increases in both the prevalence of conditions, like heart disease, and the incidence of conditions, like cancer, may result from greater awareness among people of health problems and improved methods of diagnosis and screening.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

    Study design and conductnone given
    § DISCUSSION

    The change in mobility functioning loss examined should reflect changes within individuals rather than in the environment.

    “The change in mobility functioning loss that we examined should reflect changes within individuals rather than in the environment.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation
    § DISCUSSION

    Declines in instrumental activities of daily living disability, which may be more affected by the environment, have been more pervasive and occurred earlier than declines in activities of daily living disability, which are less environmentally affected.

    “For instance, the declines in disability characterized as instrumental activities of daily living disability, which may be more affected by the environment in which people live have been more pervasive and have occurred earlier than disability termed activities of daily living disability, which would be less environmentally affected (Freedman et al., 2004).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Freedman et al., 2004 source

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § DISCUSSION

    Even if the length of disabled life stays roughly the same but the length of life needing treatment for disease increases, lifetime health costs will increase unless the cost of health care is reduced.

    “Even if the length of disabled life stays roughly the same but the length of life needing treatment for disease increases, lifetime health costs will increase unless the cost of health care is reduced.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisereasoning
    § DISCUSSION

    Breast, prostate, and colon cancer mortality is reduced because of increased screening, early diagnosis, and new treatments regimens.

    “For instance, lung cancer is primarily declining because people have reduced smoking, whereas breast, prostate, and colon cancer mortality is reduced because of increased screening, early diagnosis, and new treatments regimens.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Premisenone given
    § DISCUSSION

    Lung cancer is primarily declining because people have reduced smoking.

    “For instance, lung cancer is primarily declining because people have reduced smoking, whereas breast, prostate, and colon cancer mortality is reduced because of increased screening, early diagnosis, and new treatments regimens.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
40 of 40

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Increasing prevalence and incidence of diabetes is related to the growing problem of obesity.

    “Increasing prevalence and incidence of diabetes is assumed to be related to the growing problem of obesity, and it is projected to continue to increase (Honeycutt et al., 2003).”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Self-reports of diagnosed disease in the National Health Interview Survey validly measure trends in disease prevalence.

    “Self-reports of whether a person has been diagnosed with coronary heart disease, myocardial infarction, stroke, cancer, and diabetes are contained in the National Health Interview Survey.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Each generation will be healthier and longer lived than the prior one.

    “We have always assumed that each generation will be healthier and longer lived than the prior one.”
3 of 3

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • Eight-year comparison is called a ten-year period

    Minor

    The stated comparison years, 1998 and 2006, are eight years apart, as the paper itself says elsewhere.

  • Abstract gives the wrong end year for the analysis

    Minor

    The abstract says the increase in life with disease and mobility functioning loss occurred between 1998 and 2008, but the analysis and Table 4 compare 1998 with 2006.

2 of 2

Citations

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 14

  1. Brown, 1996, Stroke, 27, 373
  2. 2007, Demography, 4, 479
  3. 1996, The Journals of Gerontology Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences, 51, S223
  4. 1997, JOURNAL OF GERONTOLOGY SERIES B SOCIAL SCIENCES, 52, 59S
  5. 2000, 18, 1584
  6. GOLDMAN, 1984, Annals of Internal Medicine, 101, 825, 10.1059/0003-4819-101-6-825 · DOI
  7. 2002, Wisconsin medical journal, 101, 46
  8. 2007, JOURNALS OF GERONTOLOGY SERIES A BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES AND MEDICAL SCIENCES, 62A, 408
  9. 2008, NATIONAL VITAL STATISTICS REPORTS FROM THE CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION NATIONAL CENTER FOR HEALTH STATISTICS NATIONAL VITAL STATISTICS SYSTEM, 56, 1
  10. 1993, JOURNAL OF GERONTOLOGY SERIES B PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCES AND SOCIAL SCIENCES, 48, 153S
  11. 2009, The Journals of Gerontology Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences, 64, 369
  12. 2005, AGEING HORIZONS, 3, 14
  13. 2001, The Journals of Gerontology Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences, 56B, S206
  14. 1996, The Journals of Gerontology Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences, 51, S226

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Metadata

Authors
Crimmins, E. M., & Beltran-Sanchez, H.
Affiliations
University of Southern California (US)
Venue
The Journals of Gerontology Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Published
2010-12-06
Volume
66B
Issue
1
Pages
75-86
ISSN
  • 1079-5014 (ISSN-L)
  • 1758-5368
DOI
10.1093/geronb/gbq088
PMC
PMC3001754
OpenAlex
W2125858619
Semantic Scholar
a980ec583ae85b6582ff40d214ee5b64b91497a2
Cited by
694
References
107
Citations by year
2026: 28 · 2025: 43 · 2024: 39 · 2023: 35 · 2022: 55 · 2021: 51 · 2020: 42 · 2019: 63 · 2018: 53 · 2017: 50 · 2016: 62 · 2015: 54 · 2014: 37 · 2013: 31 · 2012: 24
FWCI
5.45
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • The Journals of Gerontology Series B (publishedVersion)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
  • HighWire Press Open Archive (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • Agence Nationale pour le Développement de la Recherche Universitaire
  • National Institute on Aging (P30AG017265, T32AG000037)
  • Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (T32HD007242)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Aging, Health, and Disability
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Chronic Disease Management Strategies
Keywords
compression of morbidity, mortality trends, morbidity trends, disease prevalence, mortality decline, female mortality, physiological risk factors, drug use, aging
MeSH terms
Cardiovascular Diseases, Female, Persons with Disabilities, Humans, Life Expectancy, Male, Morbidity, Mortality, Neoplasms, United States, Incidence, Prevalence, Survival Rate, Sex Distribution

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-11-10, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).

A second model labelled each claim on 2026-11-10 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

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