Is green growth possible?

May combine two claims.

Non-energy material consumption in the OECD declined from 12 tonnes per capita in 2000 to 10 tonnes per capita in 2015, with the downward trend beginning after the 2008 financial crisis.

“Non-energy material consumption in the OECD declined from 12 tonnes per capita in 2000 to 10 tonnes per capita in 2015, with the downward trend beginning after the financial crisis in 2008”

• cites OECD 2017Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The OECD concluded that material productivity has been improving in some OECD countries.

“In the 2017 edition of Green Growth Indicators, the OECD concluded that 'material productivity has been improving in some OECD countries' (45).”

• cites OECD 2017Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

Wiedmann et al. show that the USA, UK, Japan, OECD, and EU-27 achieved relative decoupling of GDP from DMC including fossil fuels, but their material footprint rose at a rate equal to or greater than GDP, indicating no decoupling or re-coupling.

“Wiedmann et al show that while the USA, UK, Japan, the OECD and EU-27 have achieved relative decoupling of GDP from DMC (including fossil fuels), material footprint has been rising at a rate equal to or greater than GDP, suggesting no decoupling at all; indeed, in most cases re-coupling has occurred”

• cites Wiedmann et al 2015Not checked yet

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May combine two claims.

Krausmann et al. show global extraction and consumption of materials increased 8-fold from 1900 to 2005, reaching 59 billion tons per year, growing at annual rates between 1% and 4%.

“Krausmann et al (2009) show that global extraction and consumption of materials (including fossil fuels) increased 8-fold during the period 1900 to 2005, reaching 59 billion tons per year, growing at annual rates between 1 per cent and 4 per cent.”

• cites Krausmann et al 2009Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

The world economy is on a path of re-materialization and far from even relative decoupling.

“Currently, the world economy is therefore on a path of re-materialization and far away from anyeven relativedecoupling.”

• cites Materialflows.net 2015Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

South Africa had near-zero growth in material footprint since 1990, but no evidence of sustained absolute decoupling.

“South Africa is the most notable of the three, with near-zero growth in material footprint since 1990, although no evidence of sustained absolute decoupling.”

• cites Wiedmann et al 2015Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

Materialflows.net shows modest growth of global material footprint from 1980 to 2002 at 1.78% per year, slower than GDP, achieving some relative decoupling.

“Materialflows.net (2015) shows a period of modest growth of global material footprint from 1980 to 2002, at 1.78 per cent per year.As this was slower than the rate of GDP growth, some relative decoupling was achieved.”

• cites Materialflows.net 2015Not checked yet

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May combine two claims.

From 2002 to 2013, global material use accelerated at 3.85% per year, rising faster than GDP, so material intensity increased.

“However, the final decade from 2002 to 2013 shows an acceleration of global material use, at 3.85 per cent per year.3 Global material use rose more quickly than GDP during this decade.In other words, the material intensity of the world economy has been increasing in the 21 st century, not decreasing.”

• cites Materialflows.net 2015Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

Giljum et al. found global consumption grew 93.4% between 1980 and 2009, averaging 2.4% per year, reaching 67.6 billion tonnes.

“Giljum et al. (2014) find that global consumption grew by 93.4 per cent between 1980 and 2009, at an average rate of 2.4 per cent per year, to reach a total of 67.6 billion tonnes.”

• cites Giljum et al. 2014Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

Materialflows.net data show global material footprint grew 132% from 1980 to 2013, averaging 2.5% per year, reaching nearly 85 billion tons.

“Materialflows.net (2015), which is run by the Vienna University of Economics and Business, offers data for the period 1980 to 2013 and shows that global material footprint grew 132 per cent, at an average rate of 2.5 per cent per year, to reach nearly 85 billion tons.”

• cites Materialflows.net 2015Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

Giljum et al. found global consumption growth accelerated in the 21st century, averaging 3.4% per year between 2000 and 2009, with no decoupling.

“Giljum et al (2014) also find that the growth rate of global consumption accelerated in the 21 st century, averaging 3.4 per cent per year between 2000 and 2009; once again, no decoupling was achieved.”

• cites Giljum et al 2014Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

Global historical trends show relative decoupling but no evidence of absolute decoupling, and 21st century trends show worse efficiency and re-coupling.

“In sum: global historical trends show relative decoupling but no evidence of absolute decoupling, and 21 st century trends show not greater efficiency but rather worse efficiency, with recoupling occurring.”

May combine two claims.

In the 21st century, global consumption growth increased between 2000 and 2005, averaging 3.7% per year, matching GDP growth and achieving no decoupling.

“But this changed in the 21 st century: the growth rate of global consumption increased between 2000 and 2005, averaging 3.7 per cent per year.As this matched the growth rate of GDP, no decoupling was achieved.”

• cites Krausmann et al 2009Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

Services grew from 63% of world GDP in 1997 to 69% in 2015, while global material use accelerated and outstripped GDP growth.

“As a proportion of world GDP, services have grown from 63 per cent in 1997 to 69 per cent in 2015, according to World Bank data.Yet during this same period global material use has accelerated, outstripping global GDP growth.”

• cites World BankNot checked yet

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May combine two claims.

The Green Growth Indicators partly recognizes the indirect flows problem but provides no data on indirect flows, and available data suggests progress has been negative.

“The Green Growth Indicators partly recognises this problem, stating 'progress is moderate once indirect flows associated with trade are considered.'Yet the report does not provide any data on indirect flows; and the data that is available suggests that progress has been not moderate but negative.”

• cites OECD 2017Not checked yet

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Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Ekins and Hughes say UNEP's worse projections are because they incorporated the rebound effect.

“The model's authors, Ekins and Hughes, say this because they have incorporated the 'rebound effect' into their model (UNEP 2017c, 106 ff.).”

• cites UNEP 2017cNot checked yet

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May combine two claims.

In high-income nations, services rose from 69% to 74% of GDP, but DMC did not diminish and material footprint outpaced GDP growth.

“Services represent 74 per cent of GDP in high-income nations (up from 69 per cent in 1997), but DMC has not diminished and material footprint is outpacing GDP growth.”

• cites World BankNot checked yet

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May combine two claims.

Even with optimistic assumptions, Schandl et al. conclude that some relative decoupling can be achieved but none leads to absolute reduction in materials footprint.

“Yet even with this optimistic assumption, Schandl et al conclude: 'Our research shows that while some relative decoupling can be achieved in some scenarios, none would lead to an absolute reduction in… materials footprint.'”

• cites Schandl et al 2016Not checked yet

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May combine two claims.

Under Dittrich et al.'s optimistic scenario, resource use reaches 93 billion tons by 2050, representing relative decoupling but no absolute reduction.

“Under this scenario, resource use reaches 93 billion tons by 2050.This represents relative decoupling, but no absolute reduction in material use.”

• cites Dittrich et al 2012Not checked yet

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Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Dittrich et al. conclude that this level of resource use is not an option for the future.

“Dittrich et al conclude that this level of resource use is 'not an option for the future'.”

• cites Dittrich et al 2012Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

UNEP's high efficiency scenario projects global resource use rising to 132 billion tons in 2050, with some relative decoupling but no absolute reduction.

“The high efficiency scenario projects that global resource use rises to 132 billion tons in 2050.While some relative decoupling is achieved, there is no absolute reduction in resource use.”

• cites UNEP 2017cNot checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

UNEP states that productivity gains in today's linear production system likely lead to increased material demand through economic growth and rebound effects.

“Productivity gains in today's linear production system are likely to lead to increased material demand through a combination of economic growth and rebound effects' (12).”

• cites UNEP 2017cNot checked yet

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May combine two claims.

ABARE reports that efficiency is likely to improve by only 0.2% to 0.5% per year, at most one-eighth of the rate Hatfield-Dodds et al. assume.

“Indeed, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural Economics (ABARE 2008) reports that efficiency is likely to improve by only 0.2 per cent to 0.5 per cent per year into the futureat most one-eighth of the rate that Hatfield-Dodds assume.”

• cites ABARE 2008Not checked yet

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Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

UNEP acknowledges that resource efficiency improvements alone are not enough for sustainability or green growth.

“In light of these findings, UNEP acknowledges that improvements in resource efficiency will not be enough, in and of themselves, to achieve sustainability, or green growth.”

• cites UNEP 2017cNot checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

Ward et al. find material extraction declines until 2050 at about 4% per year, then flattens and rises, so by 2100 material use is 20% to 60% higher than in 2015.

“They find that material extraction declines until 2050 (decoupling at an average rate of about 4 per cent per year) but then flattens off and rises steadily so that by 2100 material use is 20 per cent to 60 per cent higher than its initial value in 2015.”

• cites Ward et al 2016Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

Hatfield-Dodds et al. find that substantial economic and physical decoupling is possible, with GDP increasing at 2.41% per year while environmental pressures ease.

“They find that 'substantial economic and physical decoupling is possible,' with GDP increasing at an average rate of 2.41 per cent per year 'while associated environmental pressures ease (greenhouse gas emissions, water stress, native habitat loss)'.”

• cites Hatfield-Dodds et al 2016Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

The empirical data suggest absolute decoupling from resource use may be possible short term in some rich nations with strong abatement policy, but only assuming theoretical efficiency gains that may be impossible.

“The empirical data suggest that absolute decoupling from resource use (a) may be possible in the short term in some rich nations with strong abatement policy, but only assuming theoretical efficiency gains that may be impossible to achieve in reality;”

May combine two claims.

From 2000 to 2014 there was no improvement in carbon productivity, so not even relative decoupling was achieved in the 21st century.

“However, from 2000 to 2014 there was no improvement in carbon productivityin other words, not even relative decoupling has been achieved in the 21 st century.”

• cites World BankNot checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

Global emissions began to rise again in 2017 (1.6%) and 2018 (2.7%).

“until global emissions began to rise again in 2017 (1.6 per cent) and 2018 (2.7 per cent).”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

China's emissions declined slightly between 2014 and 2016, a brief period of absolute decoupling, before growing again in 2017.

“China's emissions declined slightly between 2014 and 2016 (a brief period of absolute decoupling), before growing again in 2017.”

May combine two claims.

On a global level, CO2 emissions have increased steadily, falling only during periods of economic recession.

“On a global level, CO2 emissions have increased steadily, falling only during periods of economic recession.”

May combine two claims.

World Bank data show carbon productivity improved steadily from 1960 to 2000, with decarbonization averaging 1.28% per year (relative decoupling).

“World Bank data shows that carbon productivity (CO2 per 2010 $US GDP) improved steadily from 1960 to 2000, with decarbonization at an average rate of 1.28 per cent per year (relative decoupling).”

• cites World BankNot checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

Figure 4(a) shows declining emissions in the US and EU28 in both territorial and consumption-based terms from 2006 to 2016, i.e., absolute decoupling.

“Figure 4(a) above shows declining emissions in the US and EU28, in both territorial and consumption-based terms, from 2006 to 2016 (i.e., absolute decoupling).”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Analysts attribute the temporary plateau to a shift in China away from coal and mostly toward oil and gas, and a shift in the US to natural gas.

“Analysts attribute the temporary plateau to a shift in China away from coal and (mostly) toward oil and gas, and a shift in the US to natural gas.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

No credible empirical models contradict the conclusion that green growth theory lacks support on resource use.

“We are not aware of any credible empirical models that contradict this conclusion.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Global emissions leveled off in 2015 and 2016 while GDP continued to rise, prompting the IEA to announce decoupling of global emissions and economic growth confirmed.

“Global emissions did level off in 2015 and 2016 while GDP continued to rise, prompting the International Energy Agency, a research arm of the OECD, to announce 'Decoupling of global emissions and economic growth confirmed' (IEA 2016)”

• cites IEA 2016Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

High-income nations have done better in territorial emissions, but progress slowed from 1.91% per year from 1970 to 2000 to 1.61% per year from 2000 to 2014.

“High-income nations have done better, at least in terms of territorial emissions (the World Bank does not track consumption-based emissions), but even so progress has slowed, from an average rate of 1.91 per cent per year from 1970 to 2000, down to 1.61 per cent per year from 2000 to 2014.”

• cites World BankNot checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

There is a steady long-term trend toward relative decoupling of GDP from carbon emissions, and absolute reductions in carbon emissions are possible.

“Unlike with resource use, there is a steady long-term trend toward relative decoupling of GDP from carbon emissions, and we know that absolute reductions in carbon emissions are possible to achieve.”

May combine two claims.

Even with Nationally Determined Contributions and Intended Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement, global warming is projected to reach 3.3 degrees (1.9 to 4.4 degrees), still exceeding 1.5C and 2C.

“Even with the Nationally Determined Contributions and Intended Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement, global warming is still projected to reach 3.3 degrees (1.9 degrees to 4.4 degrees)an improvement over the BAU scenario but still far exceeding the 1.5C and 2C thresholds.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Anderson and Peters point out that the allure of BECCS is that it allows politicians to postpone rapid emissions reductions.

“Anderson and Peters (2016) point out that the 'allure' of BECCS is due to the fact that it allows politicians to postpone the need for rapid emissions reductions: 'BECCS licenses the ongoing combustion of fossil fuels while ostensibly fulfilling the Paris Commitments.'”

• cites Anderson and Peters 2016Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

The scale of biomass assumed in AR5 scenarios would require plantations covering land two to three times the size of India, raising questions about land availability, food competition, carbon neutrality, and biodiversity loss.

“Second, the scale of biomass assumed in the AR5 scenarios would require plantations covering land two to three times the size of India, which raises questions about land availability, competition with food production, carbon neutrality, and biodiversity loss (Smith et al 2015”

• cites Smith et al 2015Not checked yet

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Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted), S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Keith noted that while measured use of biomass could help mitigate environmental problems, large-scale use of cropped biomass will not.

“In Keith's (2001) initial formulation of the idea, he noted that while 'measured use' of biomass could help mitigate environmental problems, 'large scale use of cropped biomass will not.'”

• cites Keith 2001Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

The IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report includes 116 mitigation scenarios consistent with RCP2.6, which offers the best chances of staying below 2C.

“The IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) includes 116 mitigation scenarios that are consistent with Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6),which offers the best chances of staying below 2C.”

• cites IPCC AR5Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

Without BECCS, global emissions need to fall to net zero by 2050 for 1.5C, or by 2075 for 2C.

“Without BECCS, global emissions need to fall to net zero by 2050 for 1.5C, or by 2075 for 2C.”

May combine two claims.

The viability of power generation with CCS has never been proven economically viable or scalable; it would require construction of 15,000 facilities.

“First, the viability of power generation with CCS has never been proven to be economically viable or scalable; it would require the construction of 15,000 facilities (Peters 2017).”

• cites Peters 2017Not checked yet

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Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Obersteiner considers BECCS a risk-management strategy or backstop technology and says the IPCC has misused it by including it in regular scenarios to take pressure off conventional mitigation.

“he considers BECCS to be what he calls a 'riskmanagement strategy', or a 'backstop technology' in case climate feedback loops turn out to be worse than expected, and says the IPCC has 'misused' it by including it in regular scenarios to take pressure off of conventional mitigation pathways (i.e., emissions reductions) (Hickman 2016).”

• cites Hickman 2016Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

This entails reductions of 6.8% per year and 4% per year, respectively.

“This entails reductions of 6.8 per cent per year and 4 per cent per year, respectively.”

May combine two claims.

AR5 warns that these scenarios typically involve temporary overshoot of atmospheric concentrations and typically rely on widespread deployment of BECCS.

“AR5 warns, however, that these scenarios 'typically involve temporary overshoot of atmospheric concentrations' and 'typically rely on the availability and widespread deployment of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)' (2014:23).”

• cites IPCC AR5Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

The IRENA scenario requires adding 12,200 GW of solar and wind capacity by 2050, with installation rates 2.3 to 4.6 times faster than present.

“The scenario requires adding 12,200 GW of solar and wind capacity by 2050, with a dramatic increase in installation rates (2.3 to 4.6 times faster than the present).”

• cites IRENA 2018Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

Even this optimistic scenario accomplishes only 90% of the necessary emissions reductions for 2C, likely because it pays no attention to emissions from land use change and cement production.

“Still, even this optimistic scenario accomplishes only 90 per cent of the necessary emissions reductions for 2C (likely because it pays no attention to emissions from land use change and cement production).”

• cites IRENA 2018Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

The IRENA scenario requires the energy intensity of the global economy to fall by two-thirds, at 2.8% per year, double the historical rate, lowering energy demand in 2050 to slightly less than 2015 levels.

“The scenario also requires that the energy intensity of the global economy falls by two-thirds (by 2.8 per cent per year, double the historical rate), lowering energy demand in 2050 to slightly less than 2015 levels.”

• cites IRENA 2018Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

In this scenario, growth in energy demand outstrips the rate of decarbonization, violating the carbon budgets for 1.5C and 2C.

“In this scenario, growth in energy demand outstrips the rate of decarbonization, violating the carbon budgets for 1.5C and 2C.”

• cites Schandl et al 2016Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

These 6 scenarios work by assuming optimal full technology in all other areas, mass afforestation, and high mitigation costs.

“These work by assuming 'optimal full technology' in all other areas, plus mass afforestation, and with high mitigation costs.”

• cites IPCC AR5Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

These represent theoretically possible pathways, but without any empirical evidence as to their feasibility.

“These represent theoretically possible pathways, but without any empirical evidence as to their feasibility.”

May combine two claims.

Absolute decoupling of GDP from emissions is possible and already happening in some regions.

“while absolute decoupling of GDP from emissions is possible and is already happening in some regions”

May combine two claims.

DMC is a well-established and widely used proxy for ecological pressure with robust empirical grounding.

“While DMC is not a direct indicator of ecological pressure, it is a well-established and widely-used proxy in the policy literature and enjoys robust empirical grounding for this purpose (Krausmann et al. 2009, p. 2703).”

• cites Krausmann et al. 2009Not checked yet

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Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

UNEP defines green growth as requiring absolute decoupling of GDP from resource use and environmental impact.

“UNEP offers the clearestand strongestpolicy-oriented definition of green growth, namely, that green growth requires absolute decoupling of GDP from resource use and environmental impact.”

• cites UNEP 2011bNot checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

The OECD's DMC measure excludes fossil fuels, which is not normal practice in the material flows literature.

“it should be noted, however, that the OECD's version of DMC does not include fossil fuels; this is not normal practice in the literature on material flows”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Green growth theory is now assumed in national and international policy, including the Sustainable Development Goals.

“This claim is now assumed in national and international policy, including in the Sustainable Development Goals.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Green growth theory rests on the assumption that absolute decoupling of GDP growth from resource use and carbon emissions is feasible at a rate sufficient to prevent dangerous climate change and ecological breakdown.

“It rests on the assumption that absolute decoupling of GDP growth from resource use and carbon emissions is feasible (e.g., Solow 1973), and at a rate sufficient to prevent dangerous climate change and other dimensions of ecological breakdown.”

• cites Solow 1973Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted), S4 (based).

Green growth theory holds that continued GDP expansion can be compatible with ecology because technological change and substitution will absolutely decouple GDP growth from resource use and carbon emissions.

“Green growth theory asserts that continued economic expansion is compatible with our planet's ecology, as technological change and substitution will allow us to absolutely decouple GDP growth from resource use and carbon emissions.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

The OECD, UNEP, and World Bank agree that technological change and substitution will improve the ecological efficiency of the economy and that governments can accelerate this with regulations and incentives.

“The three institutions agree however on the mechanism for achieving green growth.The promise is that technological change and substitution will improve the ecological efficiency of the economy, and that governments can speed this process with the right regulations and incentives.”

May combine two claims.

The 4.5% annual material efficiency improvement assumed by Schandl et al. has no empirical basis and no evidence of being sustainable.

“It is important to note that the rate of material efficiency improvements that Schandl et al assume (viz., 4.5 per cent per year) has no empirical basis.They provide no evidence that such a rapid rate is possible to sustain.”

• cites Schandl et al 2016Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

Ward et al. conclude that GDP growth ultimately cannot plausibly be decoupled from growth in material and energy use, so GDP growth cannot be sustained indefinitely.

“Growth in GDP ultimately cannot plausibly be decoupled from growth in material and energy use, demonstrating categorically that GDP growth cannot be sustained indefinitely.”

• cites Ward et al 2016Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Ward et al. argue that the resurgence in material extraction occurs because resource efficiency cannot improve forever and eventually approaches physical limits.

“Ward et al (2016) argue that this resurgence in material extraction happens because resource efficiency cannot improve forever, as eventually it approaches physical limits.”

• cites Ward et al 2016Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

Hatfield-Dodds et al. provide no evidence for their assumption that a 70% drop in material intensity is possible; Alexander et al. call this rate baseless and unrealistic.

“First, they provide no evidence for their assumption that a 70 per cent drop in material intensity is possible.Alexander et al (2018) have pointed out that this rate of efficiency improvement is baseless and unrealistic.”

• cites Alexander et al 2018Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

The aggregate material footprint indicator is regarded as a useful proxy because all constituent material categories exhibit roughly the same trends as the total, all increasing with GDP growth.

“but the aggregate measure is nonetheless regarded as a useful proxy because all of the constituent material categories exhibit roughly the same trends as the total (i.e., they all increase with GDP growth).”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The aggregate material footprint indicator is a useful proxy because all constituent material categories exhibit roughly the same trends as the total, all increasing with GDP growth.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted).

For green growth, the question is whether emissions can be reduced fast enough to stay within carbon budgets for 1.5C or 2C while continuing economic growth.

“For green growth theory, then, the question is not only whether we can achieve absolute decoupling and reduce emissions, but whether we can reduce emissions fast enough to stay within the carbon budgets for 1.5C or 2C, as per the Paris Agreement, while still continuing economic growth.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

The studies cited are based on the existing relationship between GDP and material throughput and model known variables.

“Second, the studies cited above are based on the existing relationship between GDP and material throughput.They model the impact of known variables, such as efficiency improvements, technological innovation, taxes, shifts to services, etc.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

Bringezu suggests this reduction needs to happen by 2050.

“Bringezu (2015) goes further and suggests that this reduction needs to happen by 2050.”

• cites Bringezu 2015Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

Theoretically, this can be accomplished with a rapid shift to 100% renewable energy, afforestation and soil regeneration, and alternative industrial processes.

“Theoretically, this can be accomplished with (a) a rapid shift to 100 per cent renewable energy to eliminate emissions from fossil fuel combustion (Jacobson and Delucchi 2011); plus (b) afforestation and soil regeneration to eliminate emissions from land use change; plus (c) a shift to alternative industrial processes to eliminate emissions from the production of cement, steel, and plastic.”

• cites Jacobson and Delucchi 2011Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

Growth increases energy demand, making the transition to renewable energy more difficult, and increases emissions from land use change and industrial processes.

“Growth increases energy demand, making the transition to renewable energy more difficult, and increases emissions from land use change and industrial processes.”

May combine two claims.

The MESSAGE-Globium model is insensitive to changes in material throughput, so reductions in production and consumption do not affect output.

“As the model is insensitive to changes in material throughput, reductions in production and consumption do not affect output.”

May combine two claims.

In the LED scenario, industrial activity declines by 42% in the North and 12% in the South.

“Industrial activity declines by 42 per cent in the North and 12 per cent in the South.”

• cites Grubler et al (2018)Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

The LED scenario projects continued GDP growth at just over 2% per year.

“The LED scenario projects continued GDP growth at just over 2 per cent per year”

• cites Grubler et al (2018)Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

The low energy demand in the LED scenario does not affect growth because it is offset by efficiency improvements.

“The low energy demand in the LED scenario does not affect growth because it is offset by efficiency improvements.”

May combine two claims.

In the LED scenario, aggregate total material output decreases by close to 20% from today, one-third due to dematerialization and two-thirds due to material efficiency improvements.

“'The aggregate total material output decreases by close to 20 per cent from today, one-third due to dematerialization, and two-thirds due to improvements in material efficiency.'”

• cites Grubler et al (2018)Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

Technological development causes economic growth and growth in consumption.

“We know for example from basic growth economics that technological development (T) causes economic growth and growth in consumption (A).”

• cites basic growth economicsNot checked yet

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May combine two claims.

The metabolism of a larger organism is more efficient than that of a smaller one, but this is because the larger organism is bigger.

“the metabolism of a larger organism, say an elephant, is more efficient than that of a smaller one, say a mouse, but this is because the elephant is bigger (Polimeni et al 2008).”

• cites Polimeni et al 2008Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable). May combine two claims.

IPAT is a tautology, true by definition, and should not be confused with a causal model.

“But note that IPAT is a tautology, true by definition of the quantities involved, and should not be confused with a causal model.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

When technology improves labour productivity, it leads to more growth and more jobs as the relative cost of labour declines.

“when technology improves labour productivity, we expect that this will lead to more growth and more jobs as the relative cost of labour declines”

• cites Kallis 2018Not checked yet

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Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted), S3 (load-bearing).

Ward et al. indicate that the limits of resource efficiency may be reached by 2050.

“although note that Ward et al indicate that the limits of resource efficiency may be reached by 2050”

• cites Ward et alNot checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

It seems likely that the insistence on green growth is politically motivated.

“It seems likely that the insistence on green growth is politically motivated.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

Gough (2017) notes that combatting climate change might require not only new clean and efficient energy technologies, but also a reduction and re-composition of consumption, with a shift from carbon-intensive to low or zero carbon sectors.

“As Gough (2017) notes, combatting climate change might require not only new clean and efficient energy technologies, but also a reduction and re-composition of consumption, with a shift from carbon-intensive to low or zero carbon sectors.”

• cites Gough (2017)Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

Our only reliable guide to the green growth/decoupling question must be empirical.

“our only reliable guide to the green growth/decoupling question must be empirical.”

May combine two claims.

Neither the neoclassical nor the labour or energy theories of value have been empirically proven; they cannot accurately predict the price at which goods trade.

“Neither the neo-classical nor the labour or energy theories of value have been empirically proven; in other words, they cannot accurately predict the price at which goods trade.”

• cites Sagoff 2008Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

Green growth also requires permanent absolute decoupling of carbon emissions from GDP, and at a rate rapid enough to prevent exceeding the carbon budget for 1.5C or 2C.

“Green growth also requires that we achieve permanent absolute decoupling of carbon emissions from GDP, and at a rate rapid enough to prevent us from exceeding the carbon budget for 1.5C or 2C.”

May combine two claims.

While some models show absolute decoupling may be achieved in high-income nations under highly optimistic conditions, they indicate it is not possible to sustain this trajectory in the long term.

“While some models show that absolute decoupling may be achieved in high-income nations under highly optimistic conditions, they indicate that it is not possible to sustain this trajectory in the long term.”

May combine two claims.

Staying within planetary boundaries may require a de-growth of production and consumption in high-consuming nations, and a shift away from the narrow growth-focused development agenda in the global South.

“Staying within planetary boundaries may require a de-growth of production and consumption in high-consuming nations (Victor 2008, Jackson 2009, Alier 2009, Kallis 2011, Kallis et al. 2012), and a shift away from the narrow growth-focused development agenda in the global South.”

• cites Victor 2008Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

• cites Jackson 2009Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

• cites Kallis 2011Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable). May combine two claims.

One can imagine a society that values the natural environment above all; such a value could grow while throughput decreases, but calling it green growth stretches the meaning of the term beyond relevance.

“one can imagine a society that values above all the quality of the natural environment; such a value could of course grow while throughput decreases, but to call such a scenario 'green growth' is to stretch the meaning of the term beyond relevance.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

The green growth literature provides no theory of value.

“Unfortunately, the green growth literature provides no such theory.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

There are no scientific grounds upon which we should not question growth, if our goal is to avoid dangerous climate change and ecological breakdown.

“there are no scientific grounds upon which we should not question growth, if our goal is to avoid dangerous climate change and ecological breakdown.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

There might exist a more fundamental mechanism linking the scale of an economy to its throughput.

“it shows that there might exist a more fundamental mechanism that links the scale of an economy to its throughput that is worth exploring.”

Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

Wackernagel and Rees (1998) put it, 'the politically acceptable is ecologically disastrous while the ecologically necessary is politically impossible'.

“as Wackernagel and Rees (1998) put it, 'the politically acceptable is ecologically disastrous while the ecologically necessary is politically impossible'.”

• cites Wackernagel and Rees (1998)Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

It is impossible to calculate the total labour or energy that has gone into the production of a good, or the utility it provides.

“It is impossible to calculate the total labour or energy that has gone into the production of a good, or the utility it provides.”

• cites Sagoff 2008Not checked yet

  Not checked in the free run.

May combine two claims.

While absolute decoupling is possible at both national and global scales (and already achieved in some regions), and while it is technically possible to decouple in line with the carbon budget for 1.5C or 2C, empirical projections show this is unlikely to be achieved, even under highly optimistic conditions.

“While absolute decoupling is possible at both national and global scales (and indeed has already been achieved in some regions), and while it is technically possible to decouple in line with the carbon budget for 1.5C or 2C, empirical projections show that this is unlikely to be achieved, even under highly optimistic conditions.”