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Cited by 82Political Conflict and GovernanceNatural Resources and Economic DevelopmentTerrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence

Droughts, Land Appropriation, and Rebel Violence in the Developing World

Bagozzi, Benjamin E., Koren, Ore, Mukherjee, Bumba·2017·The Journal of Politics
DOI 10.1086/691057
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Abstract

Scholars note that rebel atrocities against civilians often arise within rural areas in the developing world. This characterization is not far-fetched, and recent data show that rebel atrocities do predominately occur within rural agricultural regions. Yet the frequency of such incidents also varies substantially across different agricultural regions and years. What accounts for this observed variation in rebel-perpetrated atrocities against civilians within agricultural areas in developing countries? We develop a formal model to address this question, which contends that severe droughts can decrease food availability, prompting civilians to allocate food for immediate consumption and become increasingly willing to defend their diminishing supplies against rebels. This leads rebels to preempt the civilians’ defensive efforts by committing atrocities, which forcibly separate civilians from their lands and food stockpiles. In empirically testing this hypothesis at the subnational level across the developing world, we find robust support for our game-theoretic model’s predictions.

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  • A climate-related hazard may contribute to local scarcity and elevate the strategic relevance of controlling food resources, potentially resulting in battles between armed actors and civilian targeting.

    “A climate-related hazard, such as a drought or flood, may contribute to local scarcity and further elevate the strategic relevance of controlling food resources, potentially resulting in battles between armed actors (176) as well as civilian targeting (177, 178) in order to gain access to the scarce resource.”

    From Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change (2021) · cites this paper as [177]

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Authors
Bagozzi, B. E., Koren, O., & Mukherjee, B.
Affiliations
  • University of Delaware (US)
  • University of Minnesota (US)
  • Pennsylvania State University (US)
ORCID
Venue
The Journal of Politics
Publisher
University of Chicago Press
Published
2017-07
Volume
79
Issue
3
Pages
1057-1072
ISSN
  • 0022-3816 (ISSN-L)
  • 1468-2508
DOI
10.1086/691057
OpenAlex
W2610680032
Cited by
82
References
62
Citations by year
2026: 5 · 2025: 8 · 2024: 7 · 2023: 11 · 2022: 9 · 2021: 8 · 2020: 2 · 2019: 3 · 2018: 25 · 2017: 4
FWCI
23.80
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Locations
The Journal of Politics (publishedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Natural Resources and Economic Development
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence
Keywords
drought, rebel violence, land appropriation, food availability, rural agriculture, civil conflict, game-theoretic model, subnational variation

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