Living off the land: The connection between cropland, food security, and violence against civilians
Abstract
Food security has attracted widespread attention in recent years. Yet, despite preliminary evidence connecting food insecurity to political violence, we lack a systematic understanding of the relationship(s) between local food resources and violence against civilians. This study develops a food-security based theory to explain the significant variation that we observe in violence against civilians across both time and subnational geographic space. We argue that combatants, be they government or rebel actors, often must turn to local agricultural resources for sustenance. During times of relative peace, armed actors and civilians have long time horizons, and the prospects of repeated interactions thereby promote a strategy of co-optation to obtain food resources. However, the existence of immediate conflict in a region leads armed actors to discount the benefits of future interactions in favor of obtaining food immediately, using violence if necessary. In estimating a series of statistical models on a sample of all African countries (1997–2009), we find robust support for our expectations: cropland increases the frequency of violence against civilians during periods of conflict, but has an added pacifying effect during times of peace.
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A climate-related hazard may contribute to local scarcity and elevate the strategic relevance of controlling food resources, potentially resulting in battles between armed actors and civilian targeting.
“A climate-related hazard, such as a drought or flood, may contribute to local scarcity and further elevate the strategic relevance of controlling food resources, potentially resulting in battles between armed actors (176) as well as civilian targeting (177, 178) in order to gain access to the scarce resource.”
From Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change (2021) · cites this paper as [178]
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- Authors
- Koren, O., & Bagozzi, B. E.
- Affiliations
- University of Minnesota (US)
- University of Delaware (US)
- Corresponding author
- Koren, Ore
- Venue
- Journal of Peace Research
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2017-05-01
- Volume
- 54
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 351-364
- ISSN
- 0022-3433 (ISSN-L)
- 1460-3578
- OpenAlex
- W2610268286
- Cited by
- 71
- References
- 49
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 10 · 2022: 8 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 4 · 2017: 6
- FWCI
- 13.30
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- Locations
- Journal of Peace Research (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Peacebuilding and International Security
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law › Environmental and Biological Research in Conflict Zones
- Keywords
- food security, violence against civilians, cropland, armed conflict, co-optation, time horizon, rebel groups, government forces, conflict duration, subnational variation, Africa
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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