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Cited by 458Political Conflict and GovernanceTransboundary Water Resource ManagementNatural Resources and Economic Development

Civil conflict sensitivity to growing-season drought

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von Uexkull, Nina, Croicu, Mihai, Fjelde, Hanne, Buhaug, Halvard·2016·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
DOI 10.1073/pnas.1607542113PMC PMC5098672
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Abstract

Significance: Understanding the conflict potential of drought is critical for dealing effectively with the societal implications of climate change. Using new georeferenced ethnicity and conflict data for Asia and Africa since 1989, we present an actor-oriented analysis of growing-season drought and conflict involvement among ethnic groups. Results from naive models common in previous research suggest that drought generally has little impact. However, context-sensitive models accounting for the groups’ level of vulnerability reveal that drought can contribute to sustaining conflict, especially for agriculturally dependent groups and politically excluded groups in very poor countries. These results suggest a reciprocal nature–society interaction in which violent conflict and environmental shock constitute a vicious circle, each phenomenon increasing the group’s vulnerability to the other.

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Crossref · 10.1073/pnas.1607542113

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  • These stressors and competition for available resources may have contributed to conflicts in Nigeria, Uganda, Sudan, and Kenya, although the relative causal contributions of climate change, governance, population pressures, and preexisting sectarian divisions to outbreaks of organized violence remain a subject of intense debate.

    “These stressors and competition for available resources may have contributed to conflicts in Nigeria [63], Uganda [64], Sudan [65], and Kenya [66], although the relative causal contributions of climate change, governance, population pressures, and preexisting sectarian divisions to outbreaks of organized violence remain a subject of intense debate [31, 67, 68].”

    From Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife. (2020) · cites this paper as [67]

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  • A drought-conflict nexus only manifests if contextual factors are present, including absence of wells, dams, and irrigation infrastructure, agricultural dependence, ethnic discrimination, pre-existing grievances, and lack of proper state action.

    “However, climate-related precipitation declines are not the most important conflict drivers, and a drought-conflict nexus only manifests if a number of contextual factors are present.”

    From The impacts of climate change on violent conflict risk: a review of causal pathways (2024) · cites this paper as von Uexkull et al 2016

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  • Conflict risk is associated with climate change, particularly in countries or regions highly dependent on agriculture for income and food production.

    “In previous research, some studies suggested that conflict risk is associated with climate change, particularly in countries or regions highly dependent on agriculture for income and food production (von Uexkull et al 2016, Ide et al 2020).”

    From The impacts of climate change on violent conflict risk: a review of causal pathways (2024) · cites this paper as von Uexkull et al 2016

    The Analytical Approach passage reports that drought can help sustain conflict, especially among agriculturally dependent groups in very poor countries. The cited study examines growing-season drought, however, rather than directly establishing an association between long-term climate change and conflict risk; its Results also find less evidence for new conflict onset. (LLM, conf=0.84)

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  • Patterns of exclusion from political power and government discrimination, often along ethnic lines, have been shown to condition the relationship of climatic hazards and conflict.

    “At different levels of analysis, patterns of exclusion from political power and government discrimination, often along ethnic lines, have been shown to condition the relationship of climatic hazards and conflict (99,101,103,105,110).”

    From Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change (2021) · cites this paper as [101]

    The Results report that drought increases sustained conflict involvement among politically marginalized, agriculturally dependent ethnic groups, especially in very poor countries. The paper thus supports political exclusion as a condition on the drought–conflict relationship, but it does not establish government discrimination as a separate conditioning factor or extend the finding to climatic hazards generally. (LLM, conf=0.84)

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  • Most studies of outbreak of armed conflict typically find only weak climate effects.

    “In contrast, most studies of outbreak of armed conflict typically find only weak climate effects (e.g.,94, 101, 172, 173).”

    From Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change (2021) · cites this paper as [101]

    The Results report less evidence that drought affects new conflict outbreaks than that it affects ongoing conflict. The Analytical Approach also says models common in previous research suggest drought generally has little impact. These passages support the characterization of weak outbreak effects, but they do not establish that most studies of climate effects find them weak; this paper examines growing-season drought specifically. (LLM, conf=0.82)

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Research works printed but not linked: 3

  1. [13]13. Field C, Barros V, Stocker T, Dahe Q, eds (2012) Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (Cambridge Univ Press, Cam- bridge, UK).
  2. [14]14. Oliver-Smith A (1996) Antropological research on hazards and disaster. Annu Rev Anthropol 25(1):303-328.
  3. [42]42. Oppenheimer M, et al. (2014) Emergent risks and key vulnerabilities. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Inter- governmental Panel of Climate Change, eds Field CB, et al. (Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, UK), pp 1039-1099.

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Authors
von Uexkull, N., Croicu, M., Fjelde, H., & Buhaug, H.
Affiliations
  • Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, SE-75120 Uppsala, Sweden;
  • Uppsala University (SE)
  • Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NO)
ORCID
Venue
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Publisher
National Academy of Sciences
Published
2016-10-17
Volume
113
Issue
44
Pages
12391-12396
ISSN
  • 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
  • 1091-6490
DOI
10.1073/pnas.1607542113
PMC
PMC5098672
OpenAlex
W2534127458
Cited by
458
References
65
Citations by year
2026: 35 · 2025: 35 · 2024: 42 · 2023: 37 · 2022: 53 · 2021: 43 · 2020: 101 · 2019: 67 · 2018: 29 · 2017: 15 · 2016: 1
FWCI
106.46
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
www.pnas.org/site/misc/userlicense.xhtml (vor)
Locations
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • KTH Publication Database DiVA (KTH Royal Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • KOPS (University of Konstanz) (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • EC | European Research Council (648291)
  • Swedish International Development Corporation (SWE-2010-063)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Transboundary Water Resource Management
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Natural Resources and Economic Development
Keywords
drought, armed conflict, climate variability, growing season drought, ethnic groups, political exclusion, livelihood vulnerability, agricultural dependence, conflict persistence, climate-conflict nexus, Asia, Africa
MeSH terms
Armed Conflicts, Africa, Agriculture, Asia, Climate, Humans, Politics, Risk Factors, Seasons, Time Factors, Violence, Crops, Agricultural, Droughts, Economic Development, Climate Change

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