The DOI matches its Crossref record; 49 of the 49 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Climate change impacts on agriculture in 2050 under a range of plausible socioeconomic and emissions scenarios
Open accessAbstract
Previous studies have combined climate, crop and economic models to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security, but results have varied widely due to differences in models, scenarios and input data. Recent work has examined (and narrowed) these differences through systematic model intercomparison using a high-emissions pathway to highlight the differences. This paper extends that analysis to explore a range of plausible socioeconomic scenarios and emission pathways. Results from multiple climate and economic models are combined to examine the global and regional impacts of climate change on agricultural yields, area, production, consumption, prices and trade for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar crops to 2050. We find that climate impacts on global average yields, area, production and consumption are similar across shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 1, 2 and 3, as we implement them based on population, income and productivity drivers), except when changes in trade policies are included. Impacts on trade and prices are higher for SSP 3 than SSP 2, and higher for SSP 2 than for SSP 1. Climate impacts for all variables are similar across low to moderate emissions pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0), but increase for a higher emissions pathway (RCP 8.5). It is important to note that these global averages may hide regional variations. Projected reductions in agricultural yields due to climate change by 2050 are larger for some crops than those estimated for the past half century, but smaller than projected increases to 2050 due to rising demand and intrinsic productivity growth. Results illustrate the sensitivity of climate change impacts to differences in socioeconomic and emissions pathways. Yield impacts increase at high emissions levels and vary with changes in population, income and technology, but are reduced in all cases by endogenous changes in prices and other variables.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
The representative concentration pathways: an overview
van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G. C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J.-F., et al. (2011) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z · Cited by 7,741
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
Moss, R. H., Edmonds, J. A., Hibbard, K. A., Manning, M. R., Rose, S. K., van Vuuren, D. P., Carter, T. R., Emori, S., Kainuma, M., Kram, T., et al. (2010) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature08823 · Cited by 6,467
Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980
Lobell, D. B., Schlenker, W., & Costa-Roberts, J. (2011) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1204531 · Cited by 4,546
O’Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Ebi, K. L., Kemp-Benedict, E., Riahi, K., Rothman, D. S., van Ruijven, B. J., van Vuuren, D. P., Birkmann, J., Kok, K., et al. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004 · Cited by 3,359
World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision
Alexandratos, N., Bruinsma, J., Alexandratos, N., & Bruinsma, J. (2012) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · doi:10.22004/ag.econ.288998 · Cited by 3,093
A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways
O’Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Riahi, K., Ebi, K. L., Hallegatte, S., Carter, T. R., Mathur, R., & van Vuuren, D. P. (2014) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0905-2 · Cited by 2,716
Rosenzweig, C., Elliott, J., Deryng, D., Ruane, A. C., Müller, C., Arneth, A., Boote, K. J., Folberth, C., Glotter, M., Khabarov, N., et al. (2014) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1222463110 · Cited by 2,319
Self-citationGlobal food security under climate change
Schmidhuber, J., & Tubiello, F. N. (2007) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0701976104 · Cited by 2,128
Potential impact of climate change on world food supply
Rosenzweig, C., & Parry, M. L. (1994) · Nature · doi:10.1038/367133a0 · Cited by 1,891
Parry, M. L., Rosenzweig, C., Iglesias, A., Livermore, M., & Fischer, G. (2004) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.008 · Cited by 1,806
Cited by
Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways
Popp, A., Calvin, K., Fujimori, S., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Stehfest, E., Bodirsky, B. L., Dietrich, J. P., Doelmann, J. C., Gusti, M., et al. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.002 · Cited by 1,070
Self-citationClimate change has likely already affected global food production
Ray, D. K., West, P. C., Clark, M., Gerber, J. S., Prishchepov, A. V., & Chatterjee, S. (2019) · PLOS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0217148 · Cited by 989
Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself?
van Ittersum, M. K., van Bussel, L. G. J., Wolf, J., Grassini, P., van Wart, J., Guilpart, N., Claessens, L., de Groot, H., Wiebe, K., Mason-D’Croz, D., et al. (2016) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1610359113 · Cited by 899
Self-citationFossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century
Kriegler, E., Bauer, N., Popp, A., Humpenöder, F., Leimbach, M., Strefler, J., Baumstark, L., Bodirsky, B. L., Hilaire, J., Klein, D., et al. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.015 · Cited by 735
Self-citationGlobal forecasts of shipping traffic and biological invasions to 2050
Sardain, A., Sardain, E., & Leung, B. (2019) · Nature Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s41893-019-0245-y · Cited by 466
Metadata
- Authors
- Wiebe, K., Lotze-Campen, H., Sands, R., Tabeau, A., van der Mensbrugghe, D., Biewald, A., Bodirsky, B., Islam, S., Kavallari, A., Mason-D’Croz, D., Müller, C., Popp, A., Robertson, R., Robinson, S., van Meijl, H., & Willenbockel, D.
- Venue
- Environmental Research Letters
- Publisher
- IOP Publishing
- Published
- 2015-08-01
- Volume
- 10
- Issue
- 8
- Pages
- 085010
- ISSN
- 1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1630534919
- Cited by
- 335
- References
- 49
- FWCI
- 28.91
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
How to cite
Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.
- This page
- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Climate change impacts on agriculture in 2050 under a range of plausible socioeconomic and emissions scenarios. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/085010
- The paper
- Wiebe, K., Lotze-Campen, H., Sands, R., Tabeau, A., van der Mensbrugghe, D., Biewald, A., Bodirsky, B., Islam, S., Kavallari, A., Mason-D’Croz, D., Müller, C., Popp, A., Robertson, R., Robinson, S., van Meijl, H., & Willenbockel, D. (2015). Climate change impacts on agriculture in 2050 under a range of plausible socioeconomic and emissions scenarios. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/085010
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
