Extreme precipitation response to climate perturbations in an atmospheric mesoscale model
Open accessAbstract
Observations of extreme (sub-)hourly precipitation at mid-latitudes show a large dependency on the dew point temperature often close to 14% per degree—2 times the dependency of the specific humidity on dew point temperature which is given by the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) relation. By simulating a selection of 11 cases over the Netherlands characterized by intense showers, we investigate this behavior in the non-hydrostatic weather prediction model Harmonie at a resolution of 2.5 km. These experiments are repeated using perturbations of the atmospheric profiles of temperature and humidity: (i) using an idealized approach with a 2° warmer (colder) atmosphere assuming constant relative humidity, and (ii) using changes in temperature and humidity derived from a long climate change simulation at 2° global warming. All perturbations have a difference in the local dew point temperature compared to the reference of approximately 2°. Differences are considerable between the cases, with dependencies ranging from almost zero to an increase of 18% per degree rise of the dew point temperature. On average however, we find an increase of extreme precipitation intensity of 11% per degree for the idealized perturbation, and 9% per degree for the climate change perturbation. For the most extreme events these dependencies appear to approach a rate of 11–14% per degree, in closer agreement with the observed relation.
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Convective precipitation extremes have been found to increase with warming considerably faster than implied by Clausius-Clapeyron scaling in some cases when a temperature increase is imposed that is constant in the vertical.
“Convective precipitation extremes have been found to increase with warming considerably faster than implied by Clausius-Clapeyron scaling in some cases when a temperature increase is imposed that is constant in the vertical [7, 79].”
From Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change (2015) · cites this paper as [7]
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“In a related result, temperature changes in climate-change simulations were found to be close to constant in the vertical for high-CAPE composites in the midlatitudes [50,7].”
BackgroundHeavier summer downpours with climate change revealed by weather forecast resolution model
Kendon, E. J., Roberts, N. M., Fowler, H. J., Roberts, M. J., Chan, S. C., & Senior, C. A. (2014) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2258 · Cited by 761 · see citing works
- Authors
- Attema, J. J., Loriaux, J. M., & Lenderink, G.
- Affiliations
- Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (NL)
- Venue
- Environmental Research Letters
- Publisher
- IOP Publishing
- Published
- 2014-01-01
- Volume
- 9
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 014003
- ISSN
- 1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2141988228
- Cited by
- 75
- References
- 34
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 10 · 2022: 11 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 4 · 2019: 3 · 2018: 11 · 2017: 3 · 2016: 8 · 2015: 6 · 2014: 4
- FWCI
- 5.78
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Environmental Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Research Repository (Delft University of Technology) (submittedVersion)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Keywords
- heavy rainfall, dew point, Clausius-Clapeyron equation, specific humidity, climate change, global warming, atmospheric disturbances, nonhydrostatic mesoscale model, precipitation intensity, relative humidity
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