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Negative emissions—Part 1: Research landscape and synthesis
Open accessAbstract
With the Paris Agreement's ambition of limiting climate change to well below 2 °C, negative emission technologies (NETs) have moved into the limelight of discussions in climate science and policy. Despite several assessments, the current knowledge on NETs is still diffuse and incomplete, but also growing fast. Here, we synthesize a comprehensive body of NETs literature, using scientometric tools and performing an in-depth assessment of the quantitative and qualitative evidence therein. We clarify the role of NETs in climate change mitigation scenarios, their ethical implications, as well as the challenges involved in bringing the various NETs to the market and scaling them up in time. There are six major findings arising from our assessment: first, keeping warming below 1.5 °C requires the large-scale deployment of NETs, but this dependency can still be kept to a minimum for the 2 °C warming limit. Second, accounting for economic and biophysical limits, we identify relevant potentials for all NETs except ocean fertilization. Third, any single NET is unlikely to sustainably achieve the large NETs deployment observed in many 1.5 °C and 2 °C mitigation scenarios. Yet, portfolios of multiple NETs, each deployed at modest scales, could be invaluable for reaching the climate goals. Fourth, a substantial gap exists between the upscaling and rapid diffusion of NETs implied in scenarios and progress in actual innovation and deployment. If NETs are required at the scales currently discussed, the resulting urgency of implementation is currently neither reflected in science nor policy. Fifth, NETs face severe barriers to implementation and are only weakly incentivized so far. Finally, we identify distinct ethical discourses relevant for NETs, but highlight the need to root them firmly in the available evidence in order to render such discussions relevant in practice.
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“Although there has been significant progress in negative emissions research [260,540,575,580,707], the actual CO 2 removal industry is still in its infancy.”
From Tackling climate change with machine learning (2023) · cites this paper as [540]
In the citing paper
“Current research on NETs has come from two main strands: technology-focused studies that explore specific technical configurations, and integrated assessment models that investigate NETs in the context of global and long-term climate change mitigation.[3][4][5]”
From The mutual dependence of negative emission technologies and energy systems (2019) · cites this paper as [4]
In the citing paper
“In fact, to meet current climate goals, the continued growth of emissions indicated by current trends will increasingly lock energy system transformations into pathways that require large-scale NETs. 4”
From The mutual dependence of negative emission technologies and energy systems (2019) · cites this paper as [4]
In the citing paper
“BECCS has been the first NET widely taken up in integrated assessment models 4 and shows some appealing characteristics.”
From The mutual dependence of negative emission technologies and energy systems (2019) · cites this paper as [4]
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BackgroundOptimization of enhanced weathering networks with alternative transportation modes
Tan, R. R., Belmonte, B. A., Benjamin, M. F. D., Andiappan, V., & Aviso, K. B. (2022) · Carbon Resources Conversion · doi:10.1016/j.crcon.2022.04.002 · Cited by 12
Development of ceramic-MOF filters from aluminum saline slags for capturing CO2
Torrez-Herrera, J. J., Korili, S. A., & Gil, A. (2023) · Powder Technology · doi:10.1016/j.powtec.2023.118962 · Cited by 12
“The Paris agreement established the objective of limiting the current increase in global temperatures to 2 ◦ C, thus meaning that, for example, CO 2 emissions into the atmosphere must be reduced and adsorption technologies developed [5 – 8].”
Lim, T. C., Cuéllar, A., Langseth, K., & Waldon, J. L. (2022) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/acs.est.1c03478 · Cited by 12
How do ambient conditions influence sorbent selection in adsorption-based direct air capture?
Glaser, M., Rajendran, A., & McCoy, S. (2025) · Sustainable Energy & Fuels · doi:10.1039/d5se00681c · Cited by 11
Alkalinity enhancement with sodium hydroxide in coastal ocean waters
Wynn-Edwards, C. A., Dillon, W., Akl, J., Neill, C. C., Anderson, H. J., Lim, H. S., Mongin, M., & Shadwick, E. H. (2025) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-025-31606-w · Cited by 11
Regional implications of carbon dioxide removal in meeting net zero targets for the United States
Fauvel, C., Fuhrman, J., Ou, Y., Shobe, W., Doney, S. C., McJeon, H. C., & Clarens, A. F. (2023) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aced18 · Cited by 12
Xing, X., Xiong, Y., Wang, R., Gao, Y., Xu, S., Ciais, P., Gasser, T., Peñuelas, J., Sardans, J., Chen, J., et al. (2024) · Next Sustainability · doi:10.1016/j.nxsust.2024.100040 · Cited by 11
Alcalde, J., Johnson, G., & Roberts, J. J. (2025) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-025-02043-4 · Cited by 11
Fuhr, M., Dale, A. W., Wallmann, K., Bährle, R., Kalapurakkal, H. T., Sommer, S., Spiegel, T., Dobashi, R., Buchholz, B., Schmidt, M., et al. (2025) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-025-02079-6 · Cited by 15
Introduction: Justice and food security in a changing climate
Wallimann-Helmer, I., & Schübel, H. (2021) · Congress of the European Society for Agricultural and Food Ethics (EurSafe) · doi:10.3920/978-90-8686-915-2_0 · Cited by 11
Unlocking CO2 infrastructure deployment: The impact of carbon removal accounting
Schippers, E. J., & Massol, O. (2022) · Energy Policy · doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113265 · Cited by 11
Modeling the energy mix and economic costs of deep decarbonization scenarios in a CGE framework
Gilmore, E., Ghosh, M., Johnston, P., Siddiqui, M.-S., & Macaluso, N. (2023) · Energy and Climate Change · doi:10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100106 · Cited by 11
Evaluation and Implication of the Policies towards China’s Carbon Neutrality
Wang, S., Tan, S., & Xu, J. (2023) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su15086762 · Cited by 12
Using Synthetic Biology to Avert Runaway Climate Change: A Consequentialist Appraisal
Fulvi, D., & Wodak, J. (2023) · Ethics Policy & Environment · doi:10.1080/21550085.2023.2215147 · Cited by 11
“Such a hubristic approach unreasonably overestimates ‘our collective ability to manage carbon cycle flows, thereby risking doing more harm than good’ (Minx et al., 2018, p. 21).”
BackgroundYang, Y., Liu, W., Wu, B. C., Wang, T., Dong, H., Fang, M., & Gao, X. (2023) · Separation and Purification Technology · doi:10.1016/j.seppur.2023.124504 · Cited by 11
Abdalqadir, M. O., Gomari, S. R., Hughes, D. J., Sidiq, A., & Shifa, F. (2023) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.138914 · Cited by 12
Mao, W., Sun, H., Wang, W., & Luo, D. (2024) · Energy Economics · doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107620 · Cited by 11
Silver bullet or bitter pill? Reassessing the scope of CO2capture and storage in India
Sharma, N. (2018) · Carbon Management · doi:10.1080/17583004.2018.1518108 · Cited by 11
Heinze, C., Blenckner, T., Brown, P. J., Fröb, F., Morée, A. L., New, A. L., Nissen, C., Rynders, S., Seguro, I., Aksenov, Y., et al. (2023) · BGD · doi:10.5194/bg-2023-182 · Cited by 11
BLOEM : A spatially explicit model of bioenergy and carbon capture and storage, applied to Brazil
Tagomori, I. S., Daioglou, V., Rochedo, P., Angelkorte, G. B., Schaeffer, R., van Vuuren, D. P., & Szklo, A. S. (2022) · GCB Bioenergy · doi:10.1111/gcbb.13008 · Cited by 10
“The maximum storage capacity for all sites, onshore and offshore, was collected from Nogueira et al. (2022) and Oliveira et al. (2020).”
BackgroundMethodBaum, C. M., Low, S., & Sovacool, B. K. (2023) · Technological Forecasting and Social Change · doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2023.122734 · Cited by 11
Leveni, M., & Bielicki, J. M. (2023) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad0924 · Cited by 10
“This transition must occur while still providing cost-effective energy to power economies and well-being (Fuss et al 2018, Minx et al 2018).”
BackgroundInfluentialScaling carbon removal systems: deploying direct air capture amidst Canada’s low-carbon transition
Cortinovis, S. R., Craik, N., Moreno‐Cruz, J., Motlaghzadeh, K., & Schweizer, V. J. (2024) · Frontiers in Climate · doi:10.3389/fclim.2024.1338647 · Cited by 13
Prudent carbon dioxide removal strategies hedge against high climate sensitivity
Schaber, T., Ekholm, T., Merikanto, J., & Partanen, A. (2024) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01456-x · Cited by 12
Brad, A., Schneider, E., Maneka, D., Hirt, C., & Gingrich, S. (2024) · Energy Research & Social Science · doi:10.1016/j.erss.2024.103697 · Cited by 12
Duval-Dachary, S., Lorne, D., Beauchet, S., Salou, T., & Hélias, A. (2024) · The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment · doi:10.1007/s11367-024-02388-6 · Cited by 10
“NETs are designed to intentionally remove atmospheric CO 2 (carbon dioxide captured from the atmosphere by biomass growth or other processes) (Minx et al. 2018).”
Contributions of countries without a carbon neutrality target to limit global warming
Zhou, J., Li, W., Ciais, P., Gasser, T., Wang, J., Li, Z., Zhu, L., Han, M., He, J., Sun, M., et al. (2025) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-024-55720-x · Cited by 10
Zheng, J., Chen, X., Ma, J., & Liang, C. (2025) · Separation and Purification Technology · doi:10.1016/j.seppur.2025.132099 · Cited by 10
Hwang, J., Lee, E.-S., Jeong, S., Kim, Y., Yoo, Y., Cha, S., & Jeon, S. (2025) · Land Use Policy · doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107504 · Cited by 10
Oliveira, T. D., Brunelle, T., Guenet, B., Ciais, P., Leblanc, F., & Céline Guivarch, A. (2021) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.15738 · Cited by 10
“…IAMs, mitigation scenarios, mixed- effect model, regional analysis Despite the number of CDR approaches increasingly discussed in the literature (Minx et al., 2018), most future mitigation scenarios remain predominantly concentrated on Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) and, to…”
BackgroundAsayama, S., Hulme, M., & Markusson, N. O. (2021) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-021-03174-1 · Cited by 13
Workman, M. H. W., Platt, D., Reddivari, U., Valmarana, B., Hall, S., & Ganpatsingh, R. (2022) · Energy Research & Social Science · doi:10.1016/j.erss.2022.102512 · Cited by 10
Zhang, Y., Li, Z., Aviso, K. B., Tan, R. R., Wang, F., & Jia, X. (2022) · Resources Conservation and Recycling · doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2022.106766 · Cited by 12
Stenström, O., Khatiwada, D., Levihn, F., Usher, W., & Rydén, M. (2024) · Frontiers in Energy Research · doi:10.3389/fenrg.2023.1250537 · Cited by 10
International Yearbook of Soil Law and Policy 2022
Ginzky, H., Correa, F. D. A., Dooley, E., Heuser, I. L., Kameri‐Mbote, P., Kibugi, R. M., & Ruppel, O. C. (2024) · International yearbook of soil law and policy · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-40609-6 · Cited by 11
Regional variation in the effectiveness of methane-based and land-based climate mitigation options
Hayman, G. D., Comyn‐Platt, E., Huntingford, C., Harper, A., Powell, T., Cox, P. M., Collins, W. J., Webber, C. P., Lowe, J. A., Sitch, S. A., et al. (2021) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-12-513-2021 · Cited by 11
Carbon footprints and reduction requirements: the Swiss real estate sector
Frischknecht, R., Alig, M., Nathani, C., Hellmüller, P., & Stolz, P. (2020) · Buildings and Cities · doi:10.5334/bc.38 · Cited by 10
“CO2 from carbonisation in clinker production), negative emission technologies (Minx et al. 2018) should be used to ensure net-zero emission products.”
BackgroundMethodSustainable Carbon Cycles: A Framework for the Ramp-up of Carbon Capture?
Wolf, A. (2022) · Intereconomics · doi:10.1007/s10272-022-1060-7 · Cited by 10
“This involves established techniques of sustainable land management as well as more recently explored technologies such as ocean fertilisation, biochar production, enhanced weathering or Direct Air Capture (Minx et al., 2018).”
Method
Metadata
- Authors
- Minx, J. C., Lamb, W. F., Callaghan, M. W., Fuss, S., Hilaire, J., Creutzig, F., Amann, T., Beringer, T., de Oliveira Garcia, W., Hartmann, J., Khanna, T., Lenzi, D., Luderer, G., Nemet, G. F., Rogelj, J., Smith, P., Vicente Vicente, J. L., Wilcox, J., & del Mar Zamora Dominguez, M.
- Affiliations
- University of Leeds (GB)
- Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (DE)
- Universität Hamburg (DE)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- University of Aberdeen (GB)
- Colorado School of Mines (US)
- Corresponding author
- Minx, Jan C
- ORCID
- Venue
- Environmental Research Letters
- Publisher
- IOP Publishing
- Published
- 2018-05-21
- Volume
- 13
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 063001
- ISSN
- 1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2803435903
- Cited by
- 865
- References
- 155
- Citations by year
- 2026: 68 · 2025: 113 · 2024: 125 · 2023: 141 · 2022: 134 · 2021: 115 · 2020: 82 · 2019: 71 · 2018: 16
- FWCI
- 41.61
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Environmental Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (acceptedVersion)
- Aberdeen University Research Archive (Aberdeen University) (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Max Planck Digital Library (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Spiral (Imperial College London) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- ETH Zürich Research Collection (cc-by)
- Funders
- UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC/FFR2/3)
- Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (01LS1610B, 03EK3046B)
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG EXEC 177, DFG SPP 1689)
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/P019455/1, NE/P019900/1)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Chemical Engineering › Filtration and Separation › Carbon Dioxide Capture Technologies
- Keywords
- negative emissions technologies, climate change mitigation, Paris Agreement, 1.5 °C warming target, 2 °C warming limit, ocean fertilization, implementation barriers, climate policy
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