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Negative emissions—Part 1: Research landscape and synthesis
Open accessAbstract
With the Paris Agreement's ambition of limiting climate change to well below 2 °C, negative emission technologies (NETs) have moved into the limelight of discussions in climate science and policy. Despite several assessments, the current knowledge on NETs is still diffuse and incomplete, but also growing fast. Here, we synthesize a comprehensive body of NETs literature, using scientometric tools and performing an in-depth assessment of the quantitative and qualitative evidence therein. We clarify the role of NETs in climate change mitigation scenarios, their ethical implications, as well as the challenges involved in bringing the various NETs to the market and scaling them up in time. There are six major findings arising from our assessment: first, keeping warming below 1.5 °C requires the large-scale deployment of NETs, but this dependency can still be kept to a minimum for the 2 °C warming limit. Second, accounting for economic and biophysical limits, we identify relevant potentials for all NETs except ocean fertilization. Third, any single NET is unlikely to sustainably achieve the large NETs deployment observed in many 1.5 °C and 2 °C mitigation scenarios. Yet, portfolios of multiple NETs, each deployed at modest scales, could be invaluable for reaching the climate goals. Fourth, a substantial gap exists between the upscaling and rapid diffusion of NETs implied in scenarios and progress in actual innovation and deployment. If NETs are required at the scales currently discussed, the resulting urgency of implementation is currently neither reflected in science nor policy. Fifth, NETs face severe barriers to implementation and are only weakly incentivized so far. Finally, we identify distinct ethical discourses relevant for NETs, but highlight the need to root them firmly in the available evidence in order to render such discussions relevant in practice.
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“Although there has been significant progress in negative emissions research [260,540,575,580,707], the actual CO 2 removal industry is still in its infancy.”
From Tackling climate change with machine learning (2023) · cites this paper as [540]
In the citing paper
“Current research on NETs has come from two main strands: technology-focused studies that explore specific technical configurations, and integrated assessment models that investigate NETs in the context of global and long-term climate change mitigation.[3][4][5]”
From The mutual dependence of negative emission technologies and energy systems (2019) · cites this paper as [4]
In the citing paper
“In fact, to meet current climate goals, the continued growth of emissions indicated by current trends will increasingly lock energy system transformations into pathways that require large-scale NETs. 4”
From The mutual dependence of negative emission technologies and energy systems (2019) · cites this paper as [4]
In the citing paper
“BECCS has been the first NET widely taken up in integrated assessment models 4 and shows some appealing characteristics.”
From The mutual dependence of negative emission technologies and energy systems (2019) · cites this paper as [4]
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“Additionally, utilization of the emitted CO 2 in the production of long-lasting products and materials could result in negative emissions technologies (NETs) 8 – 12 , if low-C or renewable energy sources are employed 13 .”
Low, S., Baum, C. M., & Sovacool, B. K. (2022) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102530 · Cited by 38
Ocean dynamics and biological feedbacks limit the potential of macroalgae carbon dioxide removal
Berger, M., Kwiatkowski, L., Ho, D. T., & Bopp, L. (2023) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acb06e · Cited by 37
“As discussed in the recent IPCC 6th Assessment Report, many of the scenarios likely to limit warming to 2 ◦C or below require CDR, up to 16 GtCO2 yr−1 by 2050 [7, 8].”
BackgroundScott-Buechler, C. M., Cain, B. E., Osman, K., Ardoin, N. M., Fraser, C. C., Adcox, G., Polk, E., & Jackson, R. B. (2024) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01334-6 · Cited by 43
Borchers, M., Thrän, D., Chi, Y., Dahmen, N., Dittmeyer, R., Dolch, T., Dold, C., Förster, J., Herbst, M., Heß, D., et al. (2022) · Frontiers in Climate · doi:10.3389/fclim.2022.810343 · Cited by 42
“Although CDR provides a wide range of highly differentiated solutions, none of them can be treated like a silver bullet for addressing climate change (Minx et al., 2018).”
BackgroundInfluentialEnhancing the photo-electrocatalytic properties of g-C3N4 by boron doping and ZIF-8 hybridization
Atta, M. R., Shaharun, M. S., Khan, M. M. R., Abdullah, B., Al-Mahmodi, A. F., Ridzuan, N. D. M., Munusamy, T. D., & Wei, L. J. (2022) · Inorganic Chemistry Communications · doi:10.1016/j.inoche.2022.110235 · Cited by 36
Le, C., Feng, J., Sun, L., Yuan, W., Wu, G., Zhang, S., & Yang, Z. (2023) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.137436 · Cited by 39
Key uncertainties behind global projections of direct air capture deployment
Motlaghzadeh, K., Schweizer, V. J., Craik, N., & Moreno‐Cruz, J. (2023) · Applied Energy · doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121485 · Cited by 40
Attention, sentiments and emotions towards emerging climate technologies on Twitter
Müller-Hansen, F., Repke, T., Baum, C. M., Brutschin, E., Callaghan, M., Debnath, R., Lamb, W. F., Low, S., Lück, S., Roberts, C., et al. (2023) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102765 · Cited by 44
“While GGR technologies address the cause of climate change by removing green-house gases from the atmosphere (Minx et al., 2018), SRM methods aim to reduce global warming and climate impacts by reflecting some of the sunlight ’ s energy away from the earth (National Academies of Sciences, 2021).”
BackgroundSelf-citationSokol, N. W., Sohng, J., Moreland, K. C., Slessarev, E. W., Goertzen, H., Schmidt, R., Samaddar, S., Holzer, I., Almaraz, M., Geoghegan, E. K., et al. (2024) · Biogeochemistry · doi:10.1007/s10533-024-01160-0 · Cited by 42
“To meet this target, most Integrated Assessment Models also require direct removal of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from the atmosphere—both to remove excess CO 2 that has accumulated in the atmosphere and to offset emissions that cannot be abated (Fuss et al. 2018; Minx et al. 2018).”
Near-term climate impacts of Finnish residential wood combustion
Savolahti, M., Karvosenoja, N., Soimakallio, S., Kupiainen, K., Tissari, J., & Paunu, V.-V. (2019) · Energy Policy · doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2019.06.045 · Cited by 43
Antacids for the Sea? Artificial Ocean Alkalinization and Climate Change
Burns, W., & Corbett, C. R. (2020) · One Earth · doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2020.07.016 · Cited by 36
“That is why prudent observers call for ‘‘an all-of-the-above approach’’ in researching and developing a portfolio of CDR strategies tominimize trade-offs and detrimental side effects and maximize co-benefits.(3) Other CDR strategies exist but remain underfunded, underdeveloped, and undertested.”
BackgroundPerceptions of naturalness predict US public support for Soil Carbon Storage as a climate solution
Sweet, S. K., Schuldt, J. P., Lehmann, J. C., Bossio, D., & Woolf, D. (2021) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-021-03121-0 · Cited by 39
“…Storage, which involves managing land in ways that increase the amount of carbon stored in soils, thus keeping it out of the atmosphere (Minasny et al. 2017), is one such strategy that is receiving increased attention from scientists and policymakers (Minx et al. 2017, 2018; Vermeulen et al. 2019).”
BackgroundSimionescu, M. (2021) · Environmental Science and Pollution Research · doi:10.1007/s11356-021-14905-3 · Cited by 36
Förster, J., Beck, S., Borchers, M., Gawel, E., Korte, K., Markus, T., Mengis, N., Oschlies, A., Schaller, R., Stevenson, A., et al. (2022) · Frontiers in Climate · doi:10.3389/fclim.2022.758628 · Cited by 36
“CDR options differ considerably in terms of their technological maturity, carbon removal potentials, costs, co-benefits, risks, and trade-offs (IPCC, 2018; Minx et al., 2018; Schenuit et al., 2021).”
BackgroundKurisingal, J. F., Choe, J. H., Kim, H. R., Youn, J., Cheon, G., & Hong, C. S. (2024) · Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society · doi:10.1002/bkcs.12885 · Cited by 35
Acen, C., Bamisile, O., Cai, D., Ukwuoma, C. C., Obiora, S. C., Huang, Q. Z., Ozsahin, D. U., & Adun, H. H. (2024) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174302 · Cited by 45
Freshwater requirements of large-scale bioenergy plantations for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C
Stenzel, F., Gerten, D., Werner, C., & Jägermeyr, J. (2019) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab2b4b · Cited by 39
“Since the remaining carbon emissions budget for such ambitious climate goals is very small (Fuss et al 2014), the use of negative emission technologies (NETs) seems almost inevitable (Rockström et al 2017, Minx et al 2018, Rogelj et al 2018).”
BackgroundThe role of soils in the regulation of ocean acidification
Renforth, P., & Campbell, J. S. (2021) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2020.0174 · Cited by 38
“Enhanced weathering may be part of a portfolio of approaches that intend to remove multiple GtCO2 yr −1 from the atmosphere by 2100 [25,26].”
BackgroundLand‐based climate solutions for the United States
Robertson, G. P., Hamilton, S. K., Paustian, K., & Smith, P. (2022) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.16267 · Cited by 37
“, 2016), and any single NET is unlikely to sustainably meet end- of- century removal goals (Minx et al., 2018).”
BackgroundSelf-citationMaize grain yield responses to realistic biochar application rates on smallholder farms in Kenya
Kätterer, T., Roobroeck, D., Kimutai, G., Karltun, E., Nyberg, G., Sundberg, C., & de Nowina, K. R. (2022) · Agronomy for Sustainable Development · doi:10.1007/s13593-022-00793-5 · Cited by 40
“Thus, application of biochar to soil may also contribute to climate change mitigation through long-term carbon storage in soil (Njenga et al. 2017; Minx et al. 2018).”
BackgroundTargeted rainfall enhancement as an objective of forestation
Staal, A., Theeuwen, J., Wang‐Erlandsson, L., Wunderling, N., & Dekker, S. C. (2024) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.17096 · Cited by 37
“…that is, a human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of green-house gases, whereas geoengineering is seen as efforts to stabilize the climate system by directly managing the energy balance of the Earth, thereby overcoming the enhanced greenhouse effect (Minx et al., 2018).”
Regional carbon drawdown with enhanced weathering of non-hazardous industrial wastes
Jia, X., Zhang, Z., Wang, F., Li, Z., Wang, Y., Aviso, K. B., Foo, D. C. Y., Nair, P. N. S. B., Tan, R. R., & Wang, F. (2021) · Resources Conservation and Recycling · doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2021.105910 · Cited by 36
Angers, D. A., Arrouays, D., Cardinael, R., Chenu, C., Corbeels, M., Demenois, J., Farrell, M., Martin, M. P., Minasny, B., Recous, S., et al. (2022) · European Journal of Soil Science · doi:10.1111/ejss.13242 · Cited by 36
“Even in a decarbonized world, some residual emissions will remain, and negative emissions technologies to remove CO 2 from the atmosphere will be needed to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 to meet the goal set in the Paris Agreement (Minx et al., 2018).”
BackgroundUnlocking the potential of BECCS with indigenous sources of biomass at a national scale
Zhang, D., Bui, M., Fajardy, M., Patrizio, P., Kraxner, F., & Dowell, N. M. (2019) · Sustainable Energy & Fuels · doi:10.1039/c9se00609e · Cited by 39
Future of forest industry in carbon-neutral reality: Finnish and Swedish visions
Lipiäinen, S., Sermyagina, E., Kuparinen, K., & Vakkilainen, E. (2022) · Energy Reports · doi:10.1016/j.egyr.2022.01.191 · Cited by 33
Azar, C., Martín, J. G., Johansson, D. J. A., & Sterner, T. (2023) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-023-03540-1 · Cited by 33
Irreversible loss in marine ecosystem habitability after a temperature overshoot
Santana‐Falcón, Y., Yamamoto, A., Lenton, A. A., JONES, C. D., Burger, F. A., John, J. G., Tjiputra, J. F., Schwinger, J., Kawamiya, M., Frölicher, T. L., et al. (2023) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-023-01002-1 · Cited by 44
A system analysis tool for sustainable biomass utilisation considering the Emissions-Cost Nexus
Fan, Y. V., Tan, R. R., & Klemeš, J. J. (2020) · Energy Conversion and Management · doi:10.1016/j.enconman.2020.112701 · Cited by 33
Integrated Climate-Change Assessment Scenarios and Carbon Dioxide Removal
Schweizer, V. J., Ebi, K. L., van Vuuren, D. P., Jacoby, H. D., Riahi, K., Strefler, J., Takahashi, K., van Ruijven, B. J., & Weyant, J. P. (2020) · One Earth · doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2020.08.001 · Cited by 33
Chemical Looping Combustion of a Biomass Char in Fe2O3-, CuO-, and SrFeO3−δ-Based Oxygen Carriers
Kwong, K. Y., Harrison, A. R. P., Gebers, J. C., Dennis, J. S., & Marek, E. (2022) · Energy & Fuels · doi:10.1021/acs.energyfuels.2c01269 · Cited by 33
Evaluation of Enterprise Decarbonization Scheme Based on Grey-MEREC-MAIRCA Hybrid MCDM Method
Esangbedo, M. O., & Tang, M. (2023) · Systems · doi:10.3390/systems11080397 · Cited by 36
“In a qualitative analysis of the literature, Minx et al. [19] presented the main approaches for negative emission technologies (NETs), including afforestation and reforestation, bioenergy carbon capture and storage, biochar, improved weathering, direct air capture, ocean fertilization, and soil…”
Background3775-year-old wood burial supports “wood vaulting” as a durable carbon removal method
Zeng, N., Zhao, X., Poisson, G., Clifford, B. C., Liu, Y., Liu, H., Meng, T., Picard, L., Zeng-Mariotti, E., Zaitchik, B. F., et al. (2024) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.adm8133 · Cited by 35
Assessment of technologies and economics for carbon dioxide removal from a portfolio perspective
Mühlbauer, A., Keiner, D., Gerhards, C., Caldera, U., Sterner, M., & Breyer, C. (2025) · International journal of greenhouse gas control · doi:10.1016/j.ijggc.2024.104297 · Cited by 37
Affordable CO2 negative emission through hydrogen from biomass, ocean liming, and CO2 storage
Caserini, S., Barreto, B. B., Lanfredi, C., Cappello, G., Morrey, D. R., & Grosso, M. (2019) · Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change · doi:10.1007/s11027-018-9835-7 · Cited by 32
“…capture and storage (BECCS), afforestation and reforestation, land management to increase carbon in soils, enhanced weathering, direct air capture and carbon storage, ocean fertilization, and ocean alkalinization, and have been widely discussed in the literature (Minx et al. 2018; EASAC 2018).”
BackgroundBiochar mines: Panacea to climate change and energy crisis?
Thengane, S. K., & Bandyopadhyay, S. K. (2019) · Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy · doi:10.1007/s10098-019-01790-1 · Cited by 32
Combining mitigation strategies to increase co-benefits for biodiversity and food security
Prudhomme, R., Palma, A. D., Dumas, P., Gonzalez, R., Leadley, P., Levrel, H., Purvis, A., & Brunelle, T. (2020) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abb10a · Cited by 35
The International Politics of Carbon Dioxide Removal: Pathways to Cooperative Global Governance
Maher, B., & Symons, J. (2021) · Global Environmental Politics · doi:10.1162/glep_a_00643 · Cited by 34
Committed Global Warming Risks Triggering Multiple Climate Tipping Points
Abrams, J. F., Huntingford, C., Williamson, M. S., McKay, D. I. A., Boulton, C. A., Buxton, J. E., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Zimm, C., Winkelmann, R., et al. (2023) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2022ef003250 · Cited by 40
“Previous analyses show that stabilizing or “reversing” climate change is still possible if we are able to achieve net-zero or net-negative emissions (Anderson & Peters, 2016; MacDougall et al., 2020; Minx et al., 2018).”
BackgroundWiedenhofer, D., Streeck, J., Wiese, F., Verdolini, E., Mastrucci, A., Ju, Y., Boza‐Kiss, B., Min, J., Norman, J., Wieland, H., et al. (2025) · Annual Review of Environment and Resources · doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-111523-102441 · Cited by 38
Metadata
- Authors
- Minx, J. C., Lamb, W. F., Callaghan, M. W., Fuss, S., Hilaire, J., Creutzig, F., Amann, T., Beringer, T., de Oliveira Garcia, W., Hartmann, J., Khanna, T., Lenzi, D., Luderer, G., Nemet, G. F., Rogelj, J., Smith, P., Vicente Vicente, J. L., Wilcox, J., & del Mar Zamora Dominguez, M.
- Affiliations
- University of Leeds (GB)
- Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (DE)
- Universität Hamburg (DE)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- University of Aberdeen (GB)
- Colorado School of Mines (US)
- Corresponding author
- Minx, Jan C
- ORCID
- Venue
- Environmental Research Letters
- Publisher
- IOP Publishing
- Published
- 2018-05-21
- Volume
- 13
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 063001
- ISSN
- 1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2803435903
- Cited by
- 865
- References
- 155
- Citations by year
- 2026: 68 · 2025: 113 · 2024: 125 · 2023: 141 · 2022: 134 · 2021: 115 · 2020: 82 · 2019: 71 · 2018: 16
- FWCI
- 41.61
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Environmental Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (acceptedVersion)
- Aberdeen University Research Archive (Aberdeen University) (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Max Planck Digital Library (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Spiral (Imperial College London) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- ETH Zürich Research Collection (cc-by)
- Funders
- UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC/FFR2/3)
- Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (01LS1610B, 03EK3046B)
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG EXEC 177, DFG SPP 1689)
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/P019455/1, NE/P019900/1)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Chemical Engineering › Filtration and Separation › Carbon Dioxide Capture Technologies
- Keywords
- negative emissions technologies, climate change mitigation, Paris Agreement, 1.5 °C warming target, 2 °C warming limit, ocean fertilization, implementation barriers, climate policy
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