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Negative emissions—Part 1: Research landscape and synthesis
Open accessAbstract
With the Paris Agreement's ambition of limiting climate change to well below 2 °C, negative emission technologies (NETs) have moved into the limelight of discussions in climate science and policy. Despite several assessments, the current knowledge on NETs is still diffuse and incomplete, but also growing fast. Here, we synthesize a comprehensive body of NETs literature, using scientometric tools and performing an in-depth assessment of the quantitative and qualitative evidence therein. We clarify the role of NETs in climate change mitigation scenarios, their ethical implications, as well as the challenges involved in bringing the various NETs to the market and scaling them up in time. There are six major findings arising from our assessment: first, keeping warming below 1.5 °C requires the large-scale deployment of NETs, but this dependency can still be kept to a minimum for the 2 °C warming limit. Second, accounting for economic and biophysical limits, we identify relevant potentials for all NETs except ocean fertilization. Third, any single NET is unlikely to sustainably achieve the large NETs deployment observed in many 1.5 °C and 2 °C mitigation scenarios. Yet, portfolios of multiple NETs, each deployed at modest scales, could be invaluable for reaching the climate goals. Fourth, a substantial gap exists between the upscaling and rapid diffusion of NETs implied in scenarios and progress in actual innovation and deployment. If NETs are required at the scales currently discussed, the resulting urgency of implementation is currently neither reflected in science nor policy. Fifth, NETs face severe barriers to implementation and are only weakly incentivized so far. Finally, we identify distinct ethical discourses relevant for NETs, but highlight the need to root them firmly in the available evidence in order to render such discussions relevant in practice.
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“Although there has been significant progress in negative emissions research [260,540,575,580,707], the actual CO 2 removal industry is still in its infancy.”
From Tackling climate change with machine learning (2023) · cites this paper as [540]
In the citing paper
“Current research on NETs has come from two main strands: technology-focused studies that explore specific technical configurations, and integrated assessment models that investigate NETs in the context of global and long-term climate change mitigation.[3][4][5]”
From The mutual dependence of negative emission technologies and energy systems (2019) · cites this paper as [4]
In the citing paper
“In fact, to meet current climate goals, the continued growth of emissions indicated by current trends will increasingly lock energy system transformations into pathways that require large-scale NETs. 4”
From The mutual dependence of negative emission technologies and energy systems (2019) · cites this paper as [4]
In the citing paper
“BECCS has been the first NET widely taken up in integrated assessment models 4 and shows some appealing characteristics.”
From The mutual dependence of negative emission technologies and energy systems (2019) · cites this paper as [4]
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ResultMarcucci, A., Kypreos, S., & Panos, E. (2017) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-017-2051-8 · Cited by 133
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“Data sources: LIMITS (Kriegler et al 2013c), RoSE (Kriegler et al 2013b), AMPERE (Riahi et al 2015). diffusion of technologies to attain widespread adoption.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSelf-citationA review of climate geoengineering appraisals
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BackgroundCan we control the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere?
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“The exclusion criteria are discussed in more detail in the Supporting Information of Fuss et al (2018). In order to ensure consistency in applying the criteria, random samples of papers were screened and cross-checked within the technology teams until a good level of agreement was reached among the experts (90%).”
BackgroundMethodIs atmospheric carbon dioxide removal a game changer for climate change mitigation?
Kriegler, E., Edenhofer, O., Reuster, L., Luderer, G., & Klein, D. (2013) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0681-4 · Cited by 130 · cited 6×
“Data sources: LIMITS (Kriegler et al 2013c), RoSE (Kriegler et al 2013b), AMPERE (Riahi et al 2015). diffusion of technologies to attain widespread adoption.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSelf-citation2.6: Limiting climate change to 450 ppm CO2 equivalent in the 21st century
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“This effect is widely recognised (Calvin et al 2009, Kriegler et al 2013a, Azar et al 2006, Rao and Riahi 2006, Clarke et al 2009).”
BackgroundNational post-2020 greenhouse gas targets and diversity-aware leadership
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“In fact, global GHG emissions will continue to grow until 2030 unless short-term ambition is ratcheted up by many countries (Rogelj et al 2016a, Meinshausen et al 2015, Schleussner et al 2016).”
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“22 Hamilton (2013) argues that CCS has already displaced mitigation over the past decade.”
BackgroundStrefler, J., Bauer, N., Kriegler, E., Popp, A., Giannousakis, A., & Edenhofer, O. (2018) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aab2ba · Cited by 118
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“We therefore prefer typologies which clearly distinguish SRM from NETs, and both from conventional mitigation and adaptation (Heyward 2013).”
MethodPolicy: Climate advisers must maintain integrity
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“…both the scenario literature where BECCS studies initially gained prominence, as well more general discussions of negative emissions where scenarios are often used as a starting point (Smith et al 2016, Anderson 2015, Anderson and Peters 2016, Fuss et al 2014, 2016, Gasser et al 2015, Geden 2015).”
BackgroundInfluentialThe 'best available science' to inform 1.5 °C policy choices
Peters, G. P. (2016) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate3000 · Cited by 107
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Stéphane Hallegatte, A., Rogelj, J., Allen, M. R., Clarke, L., Edenhofer, O., Field, C. B., Friedlingstein, P., van Kesteren, L., Knutti, R., Mach, K. J., et al. (2016) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate3057 · Cited by 106 · cited 1×
“…warming to below 1.5 ◦C was added to the Paris Agreement (UNFCCC 2015), NETs have secured a place directly in the spotlight of many climate change mitigation discussions ever since (Hallegatte et al 2016, Hulme 2016, Schleussner et al 2016, Luderer et al 2013, Peters 2016, Rogelj et al 2015, 2018).”
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Geoengineering with seagrasses: is credit due where credit is given?
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Reframing the policy approach to greenhouse gas removal technologies
Lomax, G., Workman, M. H. W., Lenton, T. M., & Shah, N. (2015) · Energy Policy · doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2014.10.002 · Cited by 100 · cited 4×
“A series of high level commentaries picked up on the issue (Field and Mach 2017, Gasser et al 2015, Lomax et al 2015a, Parson 2017, Peters and Geden 2017, Obersteiner et al 2018, Vuuren et al 2017, Anderson 2015, Anderson and Peters 2016, Geden 2015, Williamson 2016, Fuss et al 2014).”
BackgroundInfluentialGardiner, S. M. (2011) · Environmental Values · doi:10.3197/096327111x12997574391689 · Cited by 99
High-level techno-economic assessment of negative emissions technologies
McGlashan, N. R., Shah, N., Caldecott, B., & Workman, M. H. W. (2012) · Process Safety and Environmental Protection · doi:10.1016/j.psep.2012.10.004 · Cited by 98 · cited 2×
“…2015, Shepherd et al 2009), NGOs (Friends of the Earth 2011), government funded projects (Rickels et al 2011) as well as individual or groups of scholars (Fuss et al 2016, Smith et al 2016, Vaughan and Lenton 2011, McLaren 2012, McGlashan et al 2012, Lenton 2010, 2014, Caldecott et al 2015).”
BackgroundMid- and long-term climate projections for fragmented and delayed-action scenarios
Schaeffer, M., Gohar, L., Kriegler, E., Lowe, J. A., Riahi, K., & van Vuuren, D. P. (2013) · Technological Forecasting and Social Change · doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.013 · Cited by 97 · cited 1×
“…clusters (Krey et al 2014, Kriegler et al 2016, Rose et al 2014, Kriegler et al 2014), and (2) the exploration of the impact of less optimal policy trajectories (delayed action; fragmented action) for meeting a particular climate goal (Eom et al 2015, Schaeffer et al 2015, Blanford et al 2014).”
BackgroundThe potential for land-based biological CO2removal to lower future atmospheric CO2concentration
Lenton, T. M. (2010) · Carbon Management · doi:10.4155/cmt.10.12 · Cited by 97
Boucher, O., Forster, P. M. D. F., Gruber, N., Ha‐Duong, M., Lawrence, M. G., Lenton, T. M., Maas, A., & Vaughan, N. E. (2013) · Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.261 · Cited by 90 · cited 4×
“…and confusion around definitions of negative emissions and how they relate to other key concepts of climate policy (table 1)—most importantly mitigation, adaptation and geoengineering (Boucher et al 2014, Shepherd 2012, Shepherd et al 2009, Vaughan and Lenton 2011, IPCC 2014b, Keith 2000).”
BackgroundInfluentialBioenergy and Land Use: Framing the Ethical Debate
Gamborg, C., Millar, K. M., Shortall, O., & Sandøe, P. (2011) · Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Ethics · doi:10.1007/s10806-011-9351-1 · Cited by 87 · cited 1×
“Concerns have been expressed about the sustainability and justice implications of large-scale bioenergy production (Gamborg et al 2012).”
BackgroundON THE VARIATIONS OF THE CLIMATE OF THE GEOLOGICAL AND HISTORICAL PAST AND THEIR CAUSES
Ekholm, N. (1901) · Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society · doi:10.1002/qj.49702711702 · Cited by 85 · cited 1×
“Initial discussions concerned the benefits of human-induced warming on agricultural productivity and forestalling a future ice age by adding CO2 to the atmosphere (Ekholm 1901, Fleming 2000, Keith 2000, National Research Council 2015, Arrhenius 1896).”
Backgroundde Richter, R. K., Ming, T., Caillol, S., & Liu, W. (2016) · International journal of greenhouse gas control · doi:10.1016/j.ijggc.2016.02.027 · Cited by 84 · cited 1×
“Our focus is on CO2 removal only, but we note the existence of technologies that remove other non-CO2 greenhouse gases from the atmosphere (de Richter et al 2016, Ming et al 2016, Stolaroff et al 2012, Lomax et al 2015b, Boucher et al 2014).”
BackgroundThe ethics of negative emissions
Lenzi, D. (2018) · Global Sustainability · doi:10.1017/sus.2018.5 · Cited by 84
Self-citationScientific assessments to facilitate deliberative policy learning
Kowarsch, M., Garard, J., Riousset, P., Lenzi, D., Dorsch, M. J., Knopf, B., Harrs, J.-A., & Edenhofer, O. (2016) · Humanities and Social Sciences Communications · doi:10.1057/palcomms.2016.92 · Cited by 82 · cited 1×
“We argue that expert judgements are a crucial component of assessment processes, but highlight the importance of transparently locating those within the wider literature and an assessment of uncertainty, wherever possible (Kowarsch et al 2017, 2016, Mach and Field 2017).”
BackgroundSelf-citationInvesting in negative emissions
Lomax, G., Lenton, T. M., Adeosun, A., & Workman, M. H. W. (2015) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2627 · Cited by 81 · cited 4×
“A series of high level commentaries picked up on the issue (Field and Mach 2017, Gasser et al 2015, Lomax et al 2015a, Parson 2017, Peters and Geden 2017, Obersteiner et al 2018, Vuuren et al 2017, Anderson 2015, Anderson and Peters 2016, Geden 2015, Williamson 2016, Fuss et al 2014).”
BackgroundInfluentialThe impact of near-term climate policy choices on technology and emission transition pathways
Eom, J., Edmonds, J., Krey, V., Johnson, N., Longden, T., Luderer, G., Riahi, K., & van Vuuren, D. P. (2013) · Technological Forecasting and Social Change · doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.017 · Cited by 81 · cited 1×
“…clusters (Krey et al 2014, Kriegler et al 2016, Rose et al 2014, Kriegler et al 2014), and (2) the exploration of the impact of less optimal policy trajectories (delayed action; fragmented action) for meeting a particular climate goal (Eom et al 2015, Schaeffer et al 2015, Blanford et al 2014).”
BackgroundSelf-citationPreston, C. J. (2011) · Environmental Values · doi:10.3197/096327111x13150367351212 · Cited by 81
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Shue, H. (2017) · Journal of Human Rights and the Environment · doi:10.4337/jhre.2017.02.02 · Cited by 76 · cited 4×
“While the relative neglect of NETs among ethicists appears to be changing (Shue 2017, Morrow and Svoboda 2016, Preston 2016), it remains conventional to view NETs as less ethically problematic than SRM.”
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Shepherd, J. G. (2012) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2012.0186 · Cited by 73 · cited 3×
“…al 2014, 2016, McGlashan et al 2012, Vaughan and Lenton 2011, Lenton 2014, National Research Council 2015, Friends of the Earth 2011, Lenton 2010, Shepherd 2012, Shepherd et al 2009, Caldecott et al 2015) and more emphasis in the most recent IPCC report (Clarke et al 2014, Ciais et al 2013), the…”
BackgroundEthical aspects of the mitigation obstruction argument against climate engineering research
Morrow, D. R. (2014) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2014.0062 · Cited by 73
A road map for global environmental assessments
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“We argue that expert judgements are a crucial component of assessment processes, but highlight the importance of transparently locating those within the wider literature and an assessment of uncertainty, wherever possible (Kowarsch et al 2017, 2016, Mach and Field 2017).”
BackgroundSelf-citationOcean iron fertilization: Why further research is needed
Güssow, K., Proelß, A., Oschlies, A., Katrin Rehdanz, A., & Rickels, W. (2010) · Marine Policy · doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2010.01.015 · Cited by 66 · cited 1×
“Moreover, NETs discourses show a steady increase across all technologies, with the exception of OF, which peaked between 2005 and 2010 and declined thereafter over concerns on adverse side-effect, effectiveness and legal issues (Rayfuse et al 2008, Lukacs 2012, Güssow et al 2010).”
BackgroundToward the Next Generation of Assessment
Mach, K. J., & Field, C. B. (2017) · Annual Review of Environment and Resources · doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-102016-061007 · Cited by 65
Harmonization vs. fragmentation: overview of climate policy scenarios in EMF27
Blanford, G. J., Kriegler, E., & Tavoni, M. (2014) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0951-9 · Cited by 63
Ming, T., de Richter, R. K., Shen, S., & Caillol, S. (2016) · Environmental Science and Pollution Research · doi:10.1007/s11356-016-6103-9 · Cited by 59
Edenhofer, O. (2014) · Kent Academic Repository (University of Kent) · Cited by 59
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Parson, E. A. (2017) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1713456114 · Cited by 50 · cited 1×
“A series of high level commentaries picked up on the issue (Field and Mach 2017, Gasser et al 2015, Lomax et al 2015a, Parson 2017, Peters and Geden 2017, Obersteiner et al 2018, Vuuren et al 2017, Anderson 2015, Anderson and Peters 2016, Geden 2015, Williamson 2016, Fuss et al 2014).”
BackgroundThe Collection, Disposal, and Storage of Carbon Dioxide
Baes, C. F., Beall, S. E., Lee, D. W., & Marland, G. H. (1980) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-94-009-9111-8_28 · Cited by 47 · cited 1×
“During the second half of the 20th century more concrete proposals were made on how to remove CO2 from the atmosphere by planting trees among others (Baes et al 1980, 1977, Dyson 1977, Marchetti 1977, 1979).”
BackgroundGovern land as a global commons
Creutzig, F. (2017) · Nature · doi:10.1038/546028a · Cited by 45
Self-citationOcean Fertilisation and Climate Change: The Need to Regulate Emerging High Seas Uses
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“Moreover, NETs discourses show a steady increase across all technologies, with the exception of OF, which peaked between 2005 and 2010 and declined thereafter over concerns on adverse side-effect, effectiveness and legal issues (Rayfuse et al 2008, Lukacs 2012, Güssow et al 2010).”
BackgroundThe Global Potential for Carbon Dioxide Removal
Lenton, T. M. (2014) · Royal Society of Chemistry eBooks · doi:10.1039/9781782621225-00052 · Cited by 43
Using Systematic Reviews to Separate Scientific from Policy Debate Relevant to Climate Change
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“Literature review methods are rarely discussed in the field of climate change research, despite their central importance to knowledge synthesis and policy-relevant assessments (Minx et al 2017a, Ringquist 2013, Petticrew and Roberts 2008, Petticrew and McCartney 2017, Higgins and Green 2008).”
BackgroundClimate Conflicts 2.0? Climate Engineering as a Challenge for International Peace and Security
Maas, A., & Scheffran, J. (2012) · Sicherheit & Frieden · doi:10.5771/0175-274x-2012-4-193 · Cited by 41
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“Adelman (2017) claims that the unforeseen, unintended and uncontrollable consequences of both SRM and NETs make them unacceptably risky to use, and impossible to gain consent for.”
BackgroundInfluentialBurns, W., Strauss, A. L., Abate, R. S., Davies, G., Gardiner, S. M., Güssow, K., Hamilton, C., Hester, T., Horton, J. B., Kopp, R. E., et al. (2013) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9781139161824 · Cited by 35
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Hale, B., & Dilling, L. (2010) · Science Technology & Human Values · doi:10.1177/0162243910366150 · Cited by 32
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“…long-term mitigation pathways: (1) the exploration of the impact of excluding individual technologiesor technology clusters (Krey et al 2014, Kriegler et al 2016, Rose et al 2014, Kriegler et al 2014), and (2) the exploration of the impact of less optimal policy trajectories (delayed…”
BackgroundSelf-citationThe promise of negative emissions
Lackner, K. S., Aines, R. D., Atkins, S., AtKisson, A., Barrett, S. A., Barteau, M. A., Braun, R. J., Brouwer, J., Broecker, W. S., Browne, J. B., et al. (2016) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aal2432 · Cited by 32
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Caldecott, B., Lomax, G. A., & Workman, M. H. W. (2015) · Cited by 28
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Kriegler, E., Riahi, K., Bosetti, V., Capros, P., Petermann, N., van Vuuren, D. P., Weyant, J. P., & Edenhofer, O. (2014) · Technological Forecasting and Social Change · doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2014.10.012 · Cited by 27 · cited 1×
“In the AR5 period, the major modelling inter-comparison exercises focused on understanding the technological and economic requirements of meeting stringent long-term climate goals (Kriegler et al 2014, 2013b, 2015, Riahi et al 2015, Clarke et al 2009).”
MethodConstructive Solutions to the Co2 Problem
Marchetti, C. (1979) · Developments in atmospheric science · doi:10.1016/b978-0-444-41766-4.50029-1 · Cited by 26 · cited 1×
“During the second half of the 20th century more concrete proposals were made on how to remove CO2 from the atmosphere by planting trees among others (Baes et al 1980, 1977, Dyson 1977, Marchetti 1977, 1979).”
BackgroundA generic assessment of response options
Jepma, C. J. (1996) · University of Groningen research database (University of Groningen / Centre for Information Technology) · Cited by 23
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Preston, C. J. (2016) · Environmental Values · doi:10.3197/096327115x14497392134964 · Cited by 18
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“For example, AR measures in the North are often not very effective due to changes in the albedo (Wang et al 2014, Anderson et al 2011).”
BackgroundGezielte Eingriffe in das Klima? Eine Bestandsaufnahme der Debatte zu Climate Engineering
Rickels, W., Klepper, G., Dovern, J., Betz, G., Nadine, B., Cacean, S., Güssow, K., Heintzenberg, J., Hiller, S., Hoose, C., et al. (2011) · Cited by 16
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Baatz, C., Heyward, C., & Stelzer, H. (2016) · Environmental Values · doi:10.3197/096327115x14497392134766 · Cited by 16 · cited 1×
“Ethical analyses are required which adequately reflect the differences between SRM and NETs, and between particular techniques (Baatz et al 2016, Preston 2013).”
MethodClimate Change Geoengineering: List of Contributors
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Fleming, J. R. (2000) · Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics · doi:10.1016/s1355-2198(00)00015-0 · Cited by 8 · cited 1×
“Initial discussions concerned the benefits of human-induced warming on agricultural productivity and forestalling a future ice age by adding CO2 to the atmosphere (Ekholm 1901, Fleming 2000, Keith 2000, National Research Council 2015, Arrhenius 1896).”
BackgroundGetting the Bad Out: Remediation Technologies and Respect for Others
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“Hale (2012a) argues DAC appears to be more permissible since its effects would be localised, and hence achieving consent would be feasible.”
BackgroundThe promise of negative emissions—Response
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“…either through reforestation and other landbased ‘natural climate solutions’ (Griscom et al 2017) or negative emission technologies (Fuss et al 2018, Minx et al 2018, Nemet et al 2018, Rogelj et al 2019), are required after 2050 to bring the climate back from an overshoot over the climate-change…”
BackgroundSelf-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Minx, J. C., Lamb, W. F., Callaghan, M. W., Fuss, S., Hilaire, J., Creutzig, F., Amann, T., Beringer, T., de Oliveira Garcia, W., Hartmann, J., Khanna, T., Lenzi, D., Luderer, G., Nemet, G. F., Rogelj, J., Smith, P., Vicente Vicente, J. L., Wilcox, J., & del Mar Zamora Dominguez, M.
- Affiliations
- University of Leeds (GB)
- Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (DE)
- Universität Hamburg (DE)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- University of Aberdeen (GB)
- Colorado School of Mines (US)
- Corresponding author
- Minx, Jan C
- ORCID
- Venue
- Environmental Research Letters
- Publisher
- IOP Publishing
- Published
- 2018-05-21
- Volume
- 13
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 063001
- ISSN
- 1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2803435903
- Cited by
- 865
- References
- 155
- Citations by year
- 2026: 68 · 2025: 113 · 2024: 125 · 2023: 141 · 2022: 134 · 2021: 115 · 2020: 82 · 2019: 71 · 2018: 16
- FWCI
- 41.61
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Environmental Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (acceptedVersion)
- Aberdeen University Research Archive (Aberdeen University) (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Max Planck Digital Library (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Spiral (Imperial College London) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- ETH Zürich Research Collection (cc-by)
- Funders
- UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC/FFR2/3)
- Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (01LS1610B, 03EK3046B)
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG EXEC 177, DFG SPP 1689)
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/P019455/1, NE/P019900/1)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Chemical Engineering › Filtration and Separation › Carbon Dioxide Capture Technologies
- Keywords
- negative emissions technologies, climate change mitigation, Paris Agreement, 1.5 °C warming target, 2 °C warming limit, ocean fertilization, implementation barriers, climate policy
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