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Negative emissions—Part 1: Research landscape and synthesis
Open accessAbstract
With the Paris Agreement's ambition of limiting climate change to well below 2 °C, negative emission technologies (NETs) have moved into the limelight of discussions in climate science and policy. Despite several assessments, the current knowledge on NETs is still diffuse and incomplete, but also growing fast. Here, we synthesize a comprehensive body of NETs literature, using scientometric tools and performing an in-depth assessment of the quantitative and qualitative evidence therein. We clarify the role of NETs in climate change mitigation scenarios, their ethical implications, as well as the challenges involved in bringing the various NETs to the market and scaling them up in time. There are six major findings arising from our assessment: first, keeping warming below 1.5 °C requires the large-scale deployment of NETs, but this dependency can still be kept to a minimum for the 2 °C warming limit. Second, accounting for economic and biophysical limits, we identify relevant potentials for all NETs except ocean fertilization. Third, any single NET is unlikely to sustainably achieve the large NETs deployment observed in many 1.5 °C and 2 °C mitigation scenarios. Yet, portfolios of multiple NETs, each deployed at modest scales, could be invaluable for reaching the climate goals. Fourth, a substantial gap exists between the upscaling and rapid diffusion of NETs implied in scenarios and progress in actual innovation and deployment. If NETs are required at the scales currently discussed, the resulting urgency of implementation is currently neither reflected in science nor policy. Fifth, NETs face severe barriers to implementation and are only weakly incentivized so far. Finally, we identify distinct ethical discourses relevant for NETs, but highlight the need to root them firmly in the available evidence in order to render such discussions relevant in practice.
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“Although there has been significant progress in negative emissions research [260,540,575,580,707], the actual CO 2 removal industry is still in its infancy.”
From Tackling climate change with machine learning (2023) · cites this paper as [540]
In the citing paper
“Current research on NETs has come from two main strands: technology-focused studies that explore specific technical configurations, and integrated assessment models that investigate NETs in the context of global and long-term climate change mitigation.[3][4][5]”
From The mutual dependence of negative emission technologies and energy systems (2019) · cites this paper as [4]
In the citing paper
“In fact, to meet current climate goals, the continued growth of emissions indicated by current trends will increasingly lock energy system transformations into pathways that require large-scale NETs. 4”
From The mutual dependence of negative emission technologies and energy systems (2019) · cites this paper as [4]
In the citing paper
“BECCS has been the first NET widely taken up in integrated assessment models 4 and shows some appealing characteristics.”
From The mutual dependence of negative emission technologies and energy systems (2019) · cites this paper as [4]
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“Overall, ethical costs may be reduced by relying on a portfolio of different emission reduction measures and various CDR technologies, as this minimizes the risks associated with various technologies (Cox et al., 2018; Fuhrman et al., 2023; Minx et al., 2018).”
Migo-Sumagang, M. V., Aviso, K. B., Tan, R. R., & Foo, D. C. Y. (2024) · Process Integration and Optimization for Sustainability · doi:10.1007/s41660-023-00390-3 · Cited by 2
“Because NETs have multiple footprints and may impact biodiversity and livelihoods when poorly implemented (IPCC 2022), NET portfolios as opposed to deploying single NETs are better at reducing the risks and sustainability concerns in their wide-scale implementation (Minx et al. 2018).”
Sustainable investing and market governance
Chen, A., Gupta, D., & Starmans, J. (2026) · Journal of Financial Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2026.104273 · Cited by 2
Arcusa, S., & Lackner, K. S. (2022) · OSF Preprints (OSF Preprints) · doi:10.31219/osf.io/b3wkr · Cited by 2
A spatial framework for prioritizing biochar application to arable land: a case study for SwedenPreprint
Karan, S. K., Osslund, F., Azzi, E., Karltun, E., & Sundberg, C. (2022) · doi:10.31223/x5q35v · Cited by 2
Understanding and Preventing Climate Breakdown: A Guide for Social and Behavioral ScientistsPreprint
Dablander, F. (2023) · PsyArXiv (OSF Preprints) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/4uzjs · Cited by 3
An, K., Heine, M., Hanes, R. J., Roberts, B., & Lamers, P. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5036530 · Cited by 2
The Economics of Carbon Dioxide Removal: A Governance PerspectivePreprint
Edenhofer, O., Franks, M., Gruner, F., Kalkuhl, M., & Lessmann, K. (2024) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5053587 · Cited by 2
A paradigm shift in sustainable use of natural resources and their ecosystem services
Abasi, F., Raja, N. I., Mashwani, Z., Amjad, M. S., Ehsan, M., Mustafa, N., Mehmood, A., & Ali, K. (2023) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-443-15847-6.00013-6 · Cited by 1
Mackay, A. W. (2023) · Digital War · doi:10.1057/s42984-023-00062-z · Cited by 1
“And while most modelling scenarios for reduction in atmospheric carbon involve the use of BECCS (Minx et al. 2018), the crops required to produce the energy would take a vast area of land conversion (possibly the size of Australia), posing real and significant threats to biodiversity and food security, and even carbon…”
InfluentialMarine CO2 Removal Joins Race to Scale Up Mitigation Tech
Peplow, M. (2024) · Engineering · doi:10.1016/j.eng.2024.07.017 · Cited by 1
Hook, S. E., Bodrossy, L., Brewer, E. A., & Willis, A. (2024) · Frontiers in Climate · doi:10.3389/fclim.2024.1471313 · Cited by 1
Ways to achieve carbon neutrality
Доржиевна, Ч. Г. (2024) · Вестник Российской академии наук · doi:10.31857/s0869587324110058 · Cited by 1
Pérez‐Tomás, A., Pastor-Andreu, P., Bujaldon, M., Argemí, À., Nieva, C., Arbiol, J., Riqué, E., Mas-Castellà, J., Garrell, E., & Medall, F. N. (2025) · APL Energy · doi:10.1063/5.0240389 · Cited by 1
Heimann, T., Wähling, L.-S., Honkomp, T., Delzeit, R., Pirrone, A., Schier, F., & Weimar, H. (2025) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ada16f · Cited by 2
“In addition to reducing emissions, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) methods are vital for removing existing CO 2 emissions from the atmosphere and counterbalancing residual emissions in the medium term (Minx et al 2018, Rogelj et al 2018b, 2018a, IPCC 2023).”
Allocation procedures in life cycle assessment of negative emission technologies
Fischer, M., Joseph, W., Hagemann, N., Herceg, S., Drews, M., & Kühnhold-Pospischil, S. (2025) · Procedia CIRP · doi:10.1016/j.procir.2024.12.046 · Cited by 1
Land Use Pinch Analysis of Carbon Dioxide Removal Portfolios
Cheng, X. H., Chew, Y. E., Rajakal, J. P., Andiappan, V., How, B. S., & Tan, R. R. (2025) · Industrial & Engineering Chemistry Research · doi:10.1021/acs.iecr.5c02113 · Cited by 1
Dörpmund, F., Reiner, D. M., Pongratz, J., & Fuss, S. (2025) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ae0b93 · Cited by 1
“CDR encompasses various methods at varying levels of technology readiness, ranging from established practices, such as afforestation, to novel, engineered approaches, such as direct air capture (Minx et al 2018, Smith et al 2024).”
Self-citationAntoni, D., Rump, M., & Gerdts, G. (2025) · Frontiers in Microbiomes · doi:10.3389/frmbi.2025.1659695 · Cited by 1
Ocean dynamics amplify remote warming effects of reforestation
Banville, P. E., MacIsaac, A., & Zickfeld, K. (2026) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-17-1315-2026 · Cited by 1
Effects of temperature overshoot amplitude on regional climate
Douglas, H., Revell, L. E., King, A. D., Harrington, L. J., & Frame, D. J. (2025) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ae114f · Cited by 1
“The scale of this challenge has led some to consider whether it may be more realistic to exceed or ‘overshoot’ a given temperature target before using negative emissions techniques to return to the target level (Fuss et al 2018, Minx et al 2018, van der Wijst et al 2021, Reisinger and Geden 2023).”
Kim, N. S., Lee, J.-H., & Lee, C. S. (2025) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su17219490 · Cited by 1
Global Collaboration in Carbon Dioxide Removal: Navigating a Fragmented Landscape
Presty, R., Massol, O., & da Costa, P. (2025) · Current Sustainable/Renewable Energy Reports · doi:10.1007/s40518-025-00280-x · Cited by 1
“The search strategy follows established methodologies from previous bibliometric studies on CDR [5, 19–22].”
Natale, C. M. D., Schaber, T., Tran, G., Susiluoto, J., Keller, D. P., Ekholm, T., & Partanen, A. (2025) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ae20a5 · Cited by 2
“…emission reductions are indispensable, the scientific community is slowly reaching a consensus about the need for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to achieve net-negative emissions and reverse a possible temperature overshoot (Minx et al 2018, Obersteiner et al 2018, IPCC 2022, Smith et al 2024).”
Guzman‐Urbina, A., Thanapan, T., Joy, J., Anaya, K., Shadbahr, J., Kumar, A., Gonzales‐Calienes, G., & Morimoto, S. (2026) · Journal of CO2 Utilization · doi:10.1016/j.jcou.2026.103319 · Cited by 1
MacIsaac, A., Zickfeld, K., Banville, P. E., & Matthews, H. D. (2026) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-026-03329-x · Cited by 2
Bringing fairness also into carbon removal shares of countries is essential for a just transition
Danzer, J., & Kirchengast, G. (2026) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103114 · Cited by 1
Bourban, M. (2026) · Environmental Values · doi:10.1177/09632719261421916 · Cited by 3
“Third, it relies on dubious judgements of technical feasibility of upscaling CDR (it remains unclear whether large-scale implementation of CDR is feasible) and political feasibility of CDR measures (claims about what is politically feasible or infeasible may be disguised statements of willingness or unwillingness to i…”
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Assessment of biomass utilization pathways: a German case study
Ruett, J., Abdelshafy, A., Wichelhaus, B., & Walther, G. (2026) · Journal of Industrial Ecology · doi:10.1007/s44498-026-00083-3 · Cited by 1
“Although the assessed pre-combustion BECCS setup is competitive with post-combustion and oxy-fuel BECCS, it demands high energy input (Minx et al., 2018; Sher et al., 2025).”
Sanjuán-Ruiz, Á., Infante‐Amate, J., & Aguilera, E. (2026) · Journal of Industrial Ecology · doi:10.1007/s44498-026-00077-1 · Cited by 1
Isogai, H., & Nakagaki, T. (2026) · Energy Conversion and Management · doi:10.1016/j.enconman.2026.121531 · Cited by 1
Concerns and Questions About Carbon Dioxide Removal Technologies
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Biochar co-benefits are valued in the voluntary carbon market
Jokubė, M., Hyyrynen, M., Pihlainen, S., & Hyytiäinen, K. (2026) · Communications Sustainability · doi:10.1038/s44458-026-00096-w · Cited by 1
Jansuda, W., Phianchana, K., Nokpho, P., Chalermsinsuwan, B., Potiyaraj, P., & Prasittisopin, L. (2026) · ACS Omega · doi:10.1021/acsomega.6c02131 · Cited by 1
Kant, R. (2026) · Bioresource Technology Reports · doi:10.1016/j.biteb.2026.102974 · Cited by 1
ТЕХНИКО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКАЯ ОЦЕНКА УСТАНОВОК ПРЯМОГО УЛАВЛИВАНИЯ СО2 ИЗ АТМОСФЕРНОГО ВОЗДУХА
Fasihi, M., Fasihi, M., Efimova, O., Efimova, O., Breyer, C., & Breyer, C. (2019) · Научные и технические аспекты охраны окружающей среды · doi:10.36535/0869-1002-2019-06-1 · Cited by 1
Kumar, A., Witharana, C., Arora, S., Saxena, S., & Yau, Y. (2022) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-981-16-9001-3_6 · Cited by 1
Metadata
- Authors
- Minx, J. C., Lamb, W. F., Callaghan, M. W., Fuss, S., Hilaire, J., Creutzig, F., Amann, T., Beringer, T., de Oliveira Garcia, W., Hartmann, J., Khanna, T., Lenzi, D., Luderer, G., Nemet, G. F., Rogelj, J., Smith, P., Vicente Vicente, J. L., Wilcox, J., & del Mar Zamora Dominguez, M.
- Affiliations
- University of Leeds (GB)
- Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (DE)
- Universität Hamburg (DE)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- University of Aberdeen (GB)
- Colorado School of Mines (US)
- Corresponding author
- Minx, Jan C
- ORCID
- Venue
- Environmental Research Letters
- Publisher
- IOP Publishing
- Published
- 2018-05-21
- Volume
- 13
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 063001
- ISSN
- 1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2803435903
- Cited by
- 865
- References
- 155
- Citations by year
- 2026: 68 · 2025: 113 · 2024: 125 · 2023: 141 · 2022: 134 · 2021: 115 · 2020: 82 · 2019: 71 · 2018: 16
- FWCI
- 41.61
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Environmental Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (acceptedVersion)
- Aberdeen University Research Archive (Aberdeen University) (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Max Planck Digital Library (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Spiral (Imperial College London) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- ETH Zürich Research Collection (cc-by)
- Funders
- UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC/FFR2/3)
- Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (01LS1610B, 03EK3046B)
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG EXEC 177, DFG SPP 1689)
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/P019455/1, NE/P019900/1)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Chemical Engineering › Filtration and Separation › Carbon Dioxide Capture Technologies
- Keywords
- negative emissions technologies, climate change mitigation, Paris Agreement, 1.5 °C warming target, 2 °C warming limit, ocean fertilization, implementation barriers, climate policy
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