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Negative emissions—Part 1: Research landscape and synthesis
Open accessAbstract
With the Paris Agreement's ambition of limiting climate change to well below 2 °C, negative emission technologies (NETs) have moved into the limelight of discussions in climate science and policy. Despite several assessments, the current knowledge on NETs is still diffuse and incomplete, but also growing fast. Here, we synthesize a comprehensive body of NETs literature, using scientometric tools and performing an in-depth assessment of the quantitative and qualitative evidence therein. We clarify the role of NETs in climate change mitigation scenarios, their ethical implications, as well as the challenges involved in bringing the various NETs to the market and scaling them up in time. There are six major findings arising from our assessment: first, keeping warming below 1.5 °C requires the large-scale deployment of NETs, but this dependency can still be kept to a minimum for the 2 °C warming limit. Second, accounting for economic and biophysical limits, we identify relevant potentials for all NETs except ocean fertilization. Third, any single NET is unlikely to sustainably achieve the large NETs deployment observed in many 1.5 °C and 2 °C mitigation scenarios. Yet, portfolios of multiple NETs, each deployed at modest scales, could be invaluable for reaching the climate goals. Fourth, a substantial gap exists between the upscaling and rapid diffusion of NETs implied in scenarios and progress in actual innovation and deployment. If NETs are required at the scales currently discussed, the resulting urgency of implementation is currently neither reflected in science nor policy. Fifth, NETs face severe barriers to implementation and are only weakly incentivized so far. Finally, we identify distinct ethical discourses relevant for NETs, but highlight the need to root them firmly in the available evidence in order to render such discussions relevant in practice.
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“Although there has been significant progress in negative emissions research [260,540,575,580,707], the actual CO 2 removal industry is still in its infancy.”
From Tackling climate change with machine learning (2023) · cites this paper as [540]
In the citing paper
“Current research on NETs has come from two main strands: technology-focused studies that explore specific technical configurations, and integrated assessment models that investigate NETs in the context of global and long-term climate change mitigation.[3][4][5]”
From The mutual dependence of negative emission technologies and energy systems (2019) · cites this paper as [4]
In the citing paper
“In fact, to meet current climate goals, the continued growth of emissions indicated by current trends will increasingly lock energy system transformations into pathways that require large-scale NETs. 4”
From The mutual dependence of negative emission technologies and energy systems (2019) · cites this paper as [4]
In the citing paper
“BECCS has been the first NET widely taken up in integrated assessment models 4 and shows some appealing characteristics.”
From The mutual dependence of negative emission technologies and energy systems (2019) · cites this paper as [4]
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“Published by IOP Publishing Ltd within a couple of decades (Minx et al 2018).”
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“Similarly, much of the scientific literature argues that GGR (unlike SRM) treats the root cause of the problem rather than the ‘symptoms’ (Minx et al. 2018).”
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“Page 7 / 17 (Hilaire et al., 2019; Minx et al., 2018) indicate that a temperature increase limit of 1.”
BackgroundInfluentialMitigating Climate Change Will Depend on Negative Emissions Technologies
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“Maintaining a global temperature increase below 1.5°C relies significantly on the large scale deployment of negative CO 2 emissions (carbon dioxide removal) technologies (Fuss et al., 2018; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2018; Minx et al., 2018; Nemet et al., 2018).”
BackgroundInfluentialTemperature overshoot responses to ambitious forestation in an Earth System Model
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“To date, there are various negative emission technologies available such as (but not limited to) afforestation and deforestation, direct air capture, enhanced weathering, carbon capture and storage and so on (Minx et al. 2018).”
BackgroundDelina, L. L. (2021) · Environmental Research Communications · doi:10.1088/2515-7620/ac3dc1 · Cited by 22
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“Many authors have criticized the lack of evidence for the overly optimistic assumptions on BECCS in the models.6 CDR is still far from delivering anywhere close to the scales assumed in the models (Minx et al., 2018).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialPathways to Water Sector Decarbonization, Carbon Capture and Utilization
Ren, Z. J., Pagilla, K. R., Ren, Z. J., Schnoor, J. L., Pagilla, K. R., Simon, A. J., Snyder, S. W., Shaw, A., Chetty, K., Chan, T. F., et al. (2023) · IWA Publishing eBooks · doi:10.2166/9781789063738 · Cited by 21
Bellamy, R., & Raimi, K. T. (2023) · Frontiers in Climate · doi:10.3389/fclim.2023.1205388 · Cited by 21
“There are different methods of carbon removal, including those that capture carbon through photosynthesis, such as forestation, biochar, and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS); and those that capture carbon through chemical processes, such as direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), enhanced weath…”
MethodBio‐ethylene from sugarcane as a competitiveness strategy for the Brazilian chemical industry
Souza, C. D. O., Rochedo, P., Bhardwaj, R., Worrell, E., & Szklo, A. S. (2019) · Biofuels Bioproducts and Biorefining · doi:10.1002/bbb.2069 · Cited by 21
Global scenarios of irrigation water abstractions for bioenergy production: a systematic review
Stenzel, F., Gerten, D., & Hanasaki, N. (2021) · Hydrology and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/hess-25-1711-2021 · Cited by 22
“5 C (UNFCCC, 2015), technologies providing additional negative emissions (NEs) are potentially needed to compensate for residual and past emissions (Rockström et al., 2017; Minx et al., 2018; Rogelj et al., 2018).”
Jacobs, J. E., Stanfield, C. H., Miller, Q. R. S., Villante, M. A., Marcial, J., Nienhuis, E. T., Silverstein, J. A., Polites, E. G., Bartels, M. F., Gooch, B. T., et al. (2025) · ACS Sustainable Resource Management · doi:10.1021/acssusresmgt.4c00541 · Cited by 20
Risks of relying on uncertain carbon dioxide removal in climate policy
Bindl, M., Edwards, M. R., & Cui, R. Y. (2025) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-025-61106-4 · Cited by 20
“However, these technologies are in the early stages of adoption, and thus their future role in the global economy is highly uncertain 15,16 .”
Lück, S., Callaghan, M., Borchers, M., Cowie, A., Fuss, S., Gidden, M., Hartmann, J., Kammann, C. I., Keller, D. P., Kraxner, F., et al. (2025) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-025-61485-8 · Cited by 36
Self-citationPinch-based planning of terrestrial carbon management networks
Tan, R. R., Aviso, K. B., & Bandyopadhyay, S. K. (2021) · Cleaner Engineering and Technology · doi:10.1016/j.clet.2021.100141 · Cited by 21
Accelerating the Renewable Energy Revolution to Get Back to the Holocene
Abbott, B. W., Abrahamian, C., Newbold, N., Smith, P., Merritt, M., Sayedi, S. S., Bekker, J., Greenhalgh, M., Gilbert, S. L., King, M. D., et al. (2023) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2023ef003639 · Cited by 20
Self-citationAbdalqadir, M. O., Gomari, S. R., Pak, T., Hughes, D. J., & Shwan, D. M. S. (2023) · Reaction Kinetics Mechanisms and Catalysis · doi:10.1007/s11144-023-02521-w · Cited by 21
Ali, A.-R., Haupt, J., Werra, M., Gernuks, S., Wiegel, M., Rueggeberg, M., Cerdas, F., & Herrmann, C. A. (2024) · Resources Conservation and Recycling · doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2024.107837 · Cited by 19
Migo-Sumagang, M. V., Tan, R. R., Tapia, J. F. D., & Aviso, K. B. (2022) · Cleaner Engineering and Technology · doi:10.1016/j.clet.2022.100507 · Cited by 19
Patange, O., GARG, A. K., & Jayaswal, S. (2022) · Energy · doi:10.1016/j.energy.2022.124508 · Cited by 19
Large‐scale deployment of grass in crop rotations as a multifunctional climate mitigation strategy
Englund, O., Mola‐Yudego, B., Börjesson, P., Cederberg, C., Dimitriou, I., Scarlat, N., & Berndes, G. (2022) · GCB Bioenergy · doi:10.1111/gcbb.13015 · Cited by 19
“, methods for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere (IPCC, 2022; Minx et al., 2018).”
MethodInfluentialOptimal pricing for carbon dioxide removal under inter-regional leakage
Franks, M., Kalkuhl, M., & Lessmann, K. (2022) · Journal of Environmental Economics and Management · doi:10.1016/j.jeem.2022.102769 · Cited by 19
“An extensive literature has investigated its potentials, costs and side effects (Minx et al., 2018; Fuss et al., 2018; Nemet et al., 2018), but research into efficient governance of CDR is in its infancy.”
BackgroundImportance of biochar as a key amendment to convert rice paddy into carbon negative
Canatoy, R. C., Jeong, S. T., Cho, S. R., Galgo, S. J. C., & Kim, P. J. (2023) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162331 · Cited by 19
Harvey, V., Workman, M. H. W., & Heap, R. (2023) · Energy Research & Social Science · doi:10.1016/j.erss.2023.103185 · Cited by 19
Enacting biochar as a climate solution in Denmark
Hougaard, I. (2023) · Environmental Science & Policy · doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2023.103651 · Cited by 21
Keiner, D., Mühlbauer, A., Lopez, G., Koiranen, T., & Breyer, C. (2023) · Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change · doi:10.1007/s11027-023-10090-5 · Cited by 19
“…are afforestation and/or reforestation, biochar, bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS), direct air capture and carbon storage (DACCS), enhanced weathering, ocean fertilisation, and soil carbon sequestration (Fuss et al. 2016; Minx et al. 2018; Osman et al. 2021; Park et al. 2022).”
von Rothkirch, J., Ejderyan, O., & Stauffacher, M. (2024) · Environmental Science & Policy · doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2023.103659 · Cited by 19
McElwee, P. D. (2022) · The Journal of Peasant Studies · doi:10.1080/03066150.2022.2117032 · Cited by 22
“…several thousand Mha of existing land use, but realistically less No 1–33 ha <0–$100 Sources: (Moosdorf, Renforth, and Hartmann 2014; Smith 2016; Beerling 2017; Griscom et al. 2017; Bernal, Murray, and Pearson 2018; Minx et al. 2018; NAS 2019; Fuss et al. 2020; Smith et al. 2020; Roe et al. 2021).”
Resources and reserves in a carbon-constrained world
Cook, P. J. (2022) · Mineral Economics · doi:10.1007/s13563-022-00318-2 · Cited by 19
Kanzaki, Y., Zhang, S., Planavsky, N. J., & Reinhard, C. T. (2022) · Geoscientific model development · doi:10.5194/gmd-15-4959-2022 · Cited by 26
Nondimensional Analysis of a Hollow Fiber Membrane Contactor for Direct Air Capture
Diederichsen, K. M., & Hatton, T. A. (2022) · Industrial & Engineering Chemistry Research · doi:10.1021/acs.iecr.2c02206 · Cited by 18
Carbon dioxide removal–What’s worth doing? A biophysical and public need perspective
Sekera, J. A., Werboff, D., Swan, A., Birdsey, R. A., Goodwin, N., & Lichtenberger, A. (2023) · PLOS Climate · doi:10.1371/journal.pclm.0000124 · Cited by 19
Wähling, L.-S., Fridahl, M., Heimann, T., & Merk, C. (2023) · Energy Research & Social Science · doi:10.1016/j.erss.2023.103215 · Cited by 17
Arwa, E. O., & Schell, K. R. (2023) · Applied Energy · doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.122345 · Cited by 18
Mäder, S. (2019) · Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change · doi:10.1007/s11027-019-09875-4 · Cited by 19
McMullin, B., Price, P., Jones, M. B., & McGeever, A. H. (2019) · Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change · doi:10.1007/s11027-019-09881-6 · Cited by 23
“While the detailed policy situation will clearly differ with respect to different CDR technologies (Minx et al. 2018) and from country to country (e.g., Smith et al. 2016; McGeever et al. 2019) we recommend that this methodology, and in particular the use of CO2 quota depletion as a policy metric…”
BackgroundDelina, L. L. (2020) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-020-02921-0 · Cited by 19
Draeger, R., Cunha, B. S. L. D., Müller-Casseres, E., Rochedo, P., Szklo, A. S., & Schaeffer, R. (2022) · Energy · doi:10.1016/j.energy.2022.124451 · Cited by 18
Dolan, K. A., Stoy, P. C., & Poulter, B. (2020) · GCB Bioenergy · doi:10.1111/gcbb.12686 · Cited by 20
“…technologies and other carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, including bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), have been proposed as approaches to achieve the goals set in the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit global warming to below 1.5 or 2.0°C (Fuss et al., 2018; Minx et al., 2018).”
InfluentialFanourakis, S., Romero‐García, J. M., Castro, E., Jiménez, L., & Galán‐Martín, Á. (2024) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.142361 · Cited by 17
Metadata
- Authors
- Minx, J. C., Lamb, W. F., Callaghan, M. W., Fuss, S., Hilaire, J., Creutzig, F., Amann, T., Beringer, T., de Oliveira Garcia, W., Hartmann, J., Khanna, T., Lenzi, D., Luderer, G., Nemet, G. F., Rogelj, J., Smith, P., Vicente Vicente, J. L., Wilcox, J., & del Mar Zamora Dominguez, M.
- Affiliations
- University of Leeds (GB)
- Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (DE)
- Universität Hamburg (DE)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- University of Aberdeen (GB)
- Colorado School of Mines (US)
- Corresponding author
- Minx, Jan C
- ORCID
- Venue
- Environmental Research Letters
- Publisher
- IOP Publishing
- Published
- 2018-05-21
- Volume
- 13
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 063001
- ISSN
- 1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2803435903
- Cited by
- 865
- References
- 155
- Citations by year
- 2026: 68 · 2025: 113 · 2024: 125 · 2023: 141 · 2022: 134 · 2021: 115 · 2020: 82 · 2019: 71 · 2018: 16
- FWCI
- 41.61
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Environmental Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (acceptedVersion)
- Aberdeen University Research Archive (Aberdeen University) (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Max Planck Digital Library (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Spiral (Imperial College London) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- ETH Zürich Research Collection (cc-by)
- Funders
- UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC/FFR2/3)
- Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (01LS1610B, 03EK3046B)
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG EXEC 177, DFG SPP 1689)
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/P019455/1, NE/P019900/1)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Chemical Engineering › Filtration and Separation › Carbon Dioxide Capture Technologies
- Keywords
- negative emissions technologies, climate change mitigation, Paris Agreement, 1.5 °C warming target, 2 °C warming limit, ocean fertilization, implementation barriers, climate policy
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