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Negative emissions—Part 1: Research landscape and synthesis
Open accessAbstract
With the Paris Agreement's ambition of limiting climate change to well below 2 °C, negative emission technologies (NETs) have moved into the limelight of discussions in climate science and policy. Despite several assessments, the current knowledge on NETs is still diffuse and incomplete, but also growing fast. Here, we synthesize a comprehensive body of NETs literature, using scientometric tools and performing an in-depth assessment of the quantitative and qualitative evidence therein. We clarify the role of NETs in climate change mitigation scenarios, their ethical implications, as well as the challenges involved in bringing the various NETs to the market and scaling them up in time. There are six major findings arising from our assessment: first, keeping warming below 1.5 °C requires the large-scale deployment of NETs, but this dependency can still be kept to a minimum for the 2 °C warming limit. Second, accounting for economic and biophysical limits, we identify relevant potentials for all NETs except ocean fertilization. Third, any single NET is unlikely to sustainably achieve the large NETs deployment observed in many 1.5 °C and 2 °C mitigation scenarios. Yet, portfolios of multiple NETs, each deployed at modest scales, could be invaluable for reaching the climate goals. Fourth, a substantial gap exists between the upscaling and rapid diffusion of NETs implied in scenarios and progress in actual innovation and deployment. If NETs are required at the scales currently discussed, the resulting urgency of implementation is currently neither reflected in science nor policy. Fifth, NETs face severe barriers to implementation and are only weakly incentivized so far. Finally, we identify distinct ethical discourses relevant for NETs, but highlight the need to root them firmly in the available evidence in order to render such discussions relevant in practice.
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“Although there has been significant progress in negative emissions research [260,540,575,580,707], the actual CO 2 removal industry is still in its infancy.”
From Tackling climate change with machine learning (2023) · cites this paper as [540]
In the citing paper
“Current research on NETs has come from two main strands: technology-focused studies that explore specific technical configurations, and integrated assessment models that investigate NETs in the context of global and long-term climate change mitigation.[3][4][5]”
From The mutual dependence of negative emission technologies and energy systems (2019) · cites this paper as [4]
In the citing paper
“In fact, to meet current climate goals, the continued growth of emissions indicated by current trends will increasingly lock energy system transformations into pathways that require large-scale NETs. 4”
From The mutual dependence of negative emission technologies and energy systems (2019) · cites this paper as [4]
In the citing paper
“BECCS has been the first NET widely taken up in integrated assessment models 4 and shows some appealing characteristics.”
From The mutual dependence of negative emission technologies and energy systems (2019) · cites this paper as [4]
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“Carbon removal approaches vary in the duration and uncertainty connected to CO 2 storage (Fuss et al. , 2018; Minx et al. , 2018).”
Gulde, F., Witting, M., Neuber, F., Baatz, C., & Garschagen, M. (2025) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/adcad3 · Cited by 5
“However, while the knowledge about biogeophysical CDR potentials and their impacts on the earth system is increasing (e.g. Minx et al 2018, Pongratz et al 2021, Dooley et al 2024), understanding their feasibility and desirability in and across different socioeconomic contexts remains insufficient…”
Alfaraidi, A. M., Ni, N., Sosa, J. D., Lia, S., Alhelaili, M., Faialaga, N. H., Alghoraibi, N. M., Naji, H. H. A., Alahmed, A. H., Jamal, A., et al. (2025) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-025-65258-1 · Cited by 5
Experimentation of a novel sequential moving-bed DAC System
Marcil, A., Lacroix, M.-A., Hotte-Bélanger, T., Vézina, G., & Brouillette, M. (2025) · International journal of greenhouse gas control · doi:10.1016/j.ijggc.2025.104472 · Cited by 4
Carbon Neutrality and Environmental Sustainability: Concept and Significance
Singh, H., Shah, S., Giri, K., Pal, R., & Roy, T. (2026) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-032-06427-1_1 · Cited by 6
Demonstration of direct air capture of CO2 using microalgae raceway reactors
Arraga, R., Barceló-Villalobos, M., Esteitie, R., Ahaddouch, M., Sánchez-Salinas, C., & Acién, F. G. (2026) · Journal of CO2 Utilization · doi:10.1016/j.jcou.2026.103376 · Cited by 5
Buma, B. J., Dietzen, C., Gordon, D. R., Maher, K., Neumann, R. B., Planavsky, N. J., Reershemius, T., Suhrhoff, T. J., Vicca, S., Waring, B. G., et al. (2026) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-026-03375-5 · Cited by 10
SEQUESTERING ORGANIC CARBON IN SOILS THROUGH LAND USE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES: A REVIEW
Lianhai, W. U. (2022) · Frontiers of Agricultural Science and Engineering · doi:10.15302/j-fase-2022474 · Cited by 5
Block, S., Viebahn, P., & Jungbluth, C. H. (2024) · Frontiers in Climate · doi:10.3389/fclim.2024.1353939 · Cited by 5
Kumar, A. (2022) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-815025-2.00004-6 · Cited by 5
Negative Emissions: The Role and Response of the Climate System
JONES, C. D. (2022) · Royal Society of Chemistry eBooks · doi:10.1039/9781839165245-00027 · Cited by 4
Chlela, S., & Selosse, S. (2024) · International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management · doi:10.54337/ijsepm.8159 · Cited by 5
Biochar technology cannot offset land carbon emissions in Guangdong province, China
Wang, F., Zhou, W., Wang, X., Zhao, Q. X., & Han, M. (2024) · Carbon Research · doi:10.1007/s44246-024-00140-1 · Cited by 5
“However, it is essential to assess the trade-offs among CDR potential, environmental risk, and economic viability associated with large-scale deployment of diverse land-or ocean-based CDR technologies in the future (Minx et al. 2018).”
Titus, K., Dempsey, D. E., Peer, R., & Hanik, F. (2024) · Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand · doi:10.1080/03036758.2024.2385807 · Cited by 5
“CDR refers to engineered or nature-based activities that remove CO 2 from the atmosphere and durably store it via terrestrial, marine, biological or geological means (Minx et al. 2018).”
Arcusa, S., & Hagood, E. (2024) · Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change · doi:10.1007/s11027-024-10184-8 · Cited by 8
“Since Kyoto, new forms of CDR storage have emerged (e.g., geologic, minerals, oceans, soils) (Minx et al. 2018) opening the debate also on how to compare storage with inherently different durations (Burke and Schenuit 2023).”
Introduction – Carbon Capture and Storage
Bui, M., & Dowell, N. M. (2019) · Royal Society of Chemistry eBooks · doi:10.1039/9781788012744-00001 · Cited by 5
A bi-level optimization model for technology selection
Aviso, K. B., Chiu, A. S. F., Ubando, A. T., & Tan, R. R. (2021) · Journal of Industrial and Production Engineering · doi:10.1080/21681015.2021.1950226 · Cited by 5
“These technologies and techniques can remove CO2 from the atmosphere using different biological, chemical, and physical pathways and transfer the carbon to a different environmental compartment [27].”
BackgroundThe private sector to the rescue? Analysis of a hypothetical scenario of SG deployment
Belaia, M., Borth, A. C., & Weng, W. (2021) · Futures · doi:10.1016/j.futures.2021.102810 · Cited by 5
Barber, G., Edwards, A., & Zander, K. K. (2023) · Climate Policy · doi:10.1080/14693062.2023.2239758 · Cited by 5
“‘ Negative emissions ’ will be essential to meet the 1.5°C temperature target under the Paris agreement (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change, 2019; Minx et al., 2018).”
BackgroundInfluentialRoberts, C., Greene, J. H., & Nemet, G. F. (2023) · Technological Forecasting and Social Change · doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2023.122704 · Cited by 6
Self-citationSpecialty Grand Challenge: Negative Emission Technologies
Renforth, P., & Wilcox, J. L. (2019) · Frontiers in Climate · doi:10.3389/fclim.2019.00001 · Cited by 5
Self-citationPre- and post-Paris views on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage
Fridahl, M. (2019) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-816229-3.00003-x · Cited by 5
Carbon Accounting for Regenerative Cities
Heinonen, J. T., & Ottelin, J. (2021) · Future city · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-71819-0_6 · Cited by 5
The Role of Carbon Capture and Storage in the Mitigation of Climate Change
Peters, G. P., & Sognnæs, I. (2019) · NORA - Norwegian Open Research Archives · Cited by 5
The value of hydrogen for global climate change mitigationPreprint
Wolfram, P., Kyle, P. G., Fuhrmann, J., O’Rourke, P., & McJeon, H. C. (2022) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-2074134/v1 · Cited by 5
Irreversible loss in marine ecosystem habitability after a temperature overshootPreprint
Santana‐Falcón, Y., Yamamoto, A., Lenton, A. A., JONES, C. D., Burger, F. A., John, J. G., Tjiputra, J. F., Schwinger, J., Kawamiya, M., Frölicher, T. L., et al. (2023) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-2230847/v1 · Cited by 5
Climate change mitigation scenarios for financial sector target setting and alignment assessment
Noels, J., Pouille, C., Jachnik, R., & Rocha, M. R. (2023) · OECD environment working papers · doi:10.1787/bcd25b82-en · Cited by 7
Meuleneers, L., Engelmann, L., Ostojic, S., Harzendorf, F., Sheykhha, S., Ziefle, M., Madlener, R., Rezo, D., Zapp, P., Postweiler, P., et al. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5278865 · Cited by 4
Growth over climate or aviation climate policy in the Avoid–Shift–Improve framework
Suomalainen, E. (2025) · npj Climate Action · doi:10.1038/s44168-025-00261-2 · Cited by 4
Wu, Z., Su, C., Gao, M., Kang, R., Goll, D. S., Meng, Y., Tai, Z., Wang, A., Wang, Q., & Fang, Y. (2025) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2025.123135 · Cited by 4
Mitigation deterrence and unrealistic expectations: the future costs of forest carbon offsets
Moioli, C., Drouet, L., Röeser, D., Emmerling, J., & Zerriffi, H. (2025) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103068 · Cited by 4
Bromark, E., Sirigina, D. S. S. S., Nazir, S. M., Tidåker, P., Nordberg, Å., & Hansson, P. (2025) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-025-27609-2 · Cited by 4
The carbon dioxide removal potential of cement and lime kiln dust via ocean alkalinity enhancement
Flipkens, G., Lembregts, G., & Meysman, F. J. R. (2026) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-23-399-2026 · Cited by 4
Estimation of Net Primary Productivity: An Introduction to Different Approaches
Burman, P. K. D. (2020) · Environmental science and engineering · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-56542-8_2 · Cited by 4
Tripodi, G., Lillo, F., Mavilia, R., Mina, A., Chiaromonte, F., & Lamperti, F. (2024) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad7479 · Cited by 4
“The queries we used to identify DAC articles do not explicitly include ‘storage’, contrary to BECCS and in line with previous studies [24, 25].”
Li, X., Gao, N., Yuan, F., & Huang, L. (2024) · Journal of CO2 Utilization · doi:10.1016/j.jcou.2024.102966 · Cited by 4
McDonald, D. T. E., Power, I., Paulo, C., & Wilson, S. (2025) · International journal of greenhouse gas control · doi:10.1016/j.ijggc.2025.104376 · Cited by 4
Degrees of reversibility of ocean deoxygenation in an atmospheric carbon dioxide removal scenario
Monteiro, E. A., Keller, D. P., Christian, J. R., John, J. G., Kawamiya, M., Séférian, R., Tjiputra, J. F., Wiltshire, A. J., & Oschlies, A. (2025) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ade900 · Cited by 4
“There are still many practical uncertainties regarding CDR approaches, in terms of availability, scale and side effects [26].”
Predictions of burnout times of biomass char using experimentally determined CO to CO2 ratio
Kwong, K. Y., Mleczko, L., Bakhti, W. M., Dennis, J. S., & Marek, E. (2022) · Chemical Engineering Journal · doi:10.1016/j.cej.2022.138404 · Cited by 4
Tanner, K., & Strong, A. (2023) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su15064733 · Cited by 4
Life cycle optimisation for negative emission technologies in electricity generation
Cheng, X. H., Ng, D. K. S., & Andiappan, V. (2023) · International journal of greenhouse gas control · doi:10.1016/j.ijggc.2023.103935 · Cited by 4
Metadata
- Authors
- Minx, J. C., Lamb, W. F., Callaghan, M. W., Fuss, S., Hilaire, J., Creutzig, F., Amann, T., Beringer, T., de Oliveira Garcia, W., Hartmann, J., Khanna, T., Lenzi, D., Luderer, G., Nemet, G. F., Rogelj, J., Smith, P., Vicente Vicente, J. L., Wilcox, J., & del Mar Zamora Dominguez, M.
- Affiliations
- University of Leeds (GB)
- Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (DE)
- Universität Hamburg (DE)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- University of Aberdeen (GB)
- Colorado School of Mines (US)
- Corresponding author
- Minx, Jan C
- ORCID
- Venue
- Environmental Research Letters
- Publisher
- IOP Publishing
- Published
- 2018-05-21
- Volume
- 13
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 063001
- ISSN
- 1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2803435903
- Cited by
- 865
- References
- 155
- Citations by year
- 2026: 68 · 2025: 113 · 2024: 125 · 2023: 141 · 2022: 134 · 2021: 115 · 2020: 82 · 2019: 71 · 2018: 16
- FWCI
- 41.61
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Environmental Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (acceptedVersion)
- Aberdeen University Research Archive (Aberdeen University) (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Max Planck Digital Library (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Spiral (Imperial College London) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- ETH Zürich Research Collection (cc-by)
- Funders
- UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC/FFR2/3)
- Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (01LS1610B, 03EK3046B)
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG EXEC 177, DFG SPP 1689)
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/P019455/1, NE/P019900/1)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Chemical Engineering › Filtration and Separation › Carbon Dioxide Capture Technologies
- Keywords
- negative emissions technologies, climate change mitigation, Paris Agreement, 1.5 °C warming target, 2 °C warming limit, ocean fertilization, implementation barriers, climate policy
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