CoChat
Sign Up
Cited by 49Epistemology, Ethics, and MetaphysicsLogic, Reasoning, and KnowledgeBayesian Modeling and Causal Inference

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 5 of the 5 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Quitting Certainties: A Bayesian Framework Modeling Degrees of Belief

Titelbaum, Michael G.·2012
DOI 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199658305.001.0001
Open this paper in CoChat — free account

Abstract

Subjective Bayesianism is one of the most popular tools of contemporary epistemology, using probability mathematics to provide comprehensive rational constraints both for an agent’s degrees of belief at a given time and for the evolution of those degrees of belief over time. Yet Conditionalization (the traditional Bayesian updating rule) has trouble modeling cases involving memory loss and context-sensitivity, because these cases involve the loss of certainties over time. This book proposes a new Bayesian modeling framework, the Certainty-Loss Framework (or CLF), that yields correct verdicts about rational requirements in such cases. The framework resolves a variety of outstanding problems for Bayesianism, including the Sleeping Beauty Problem concerning self-locating beliefs and difficulties squaring Bayesianism with Everettian interpretations of quantum mechanics. CLF is developed within a carefully-articulated formal modeling methodology that focuses our attention on the boundaries of our models’ applicability and the precise relation between formal systems and norms. The result is a framework that merges the advantages of formal modeling with the complexities of everyday epistemic life.

Overview

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199658305.001.0001

Cites

5 of 5 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Recomputing p-values needs the paper’s full text.

Verification

Claims the paper makes

This paper’s full text isn’t openly available, so its claims and self-check weren’t run. The registry and citation checks still apply.

Citations

Cites

Show all 5 references

Research works printed but not linked: 170

  1. Albert,, 1988, Interpreting the many‐worlds interpretation., Synthese, 10.1007/BF00869434 · DOI
  2. Alchourrón,, 1985, On the logic of theory change: Partial meet contraction and revision functions., The Journal of Symbolic Logic, 10.2307/2274239 · DOI
  3. Arntzenius,, 2002, Refections on Sleeping Beauty., Analysis, 10.1093/analys/62.1.53 · DOI
  4. 2003, Some problems for conditionalization and refection., The Journal of Philosophy
  5. Beall,, 2006, Logical Pluralism
  6. Bennett,, 2003, A Philosophical Guide to Conditionals, 10.1093/0199258872.001.0001 · DOI
  7. Bostrom,, 2007, Sleeping Beauty and self‐location: A hybrid model., Synthese, 10.1007/s11229-006-9010-7 · DOI
  8. Bradley,, 2009, The fne‐tuning argument does not commit the inverse gambler's fallacy., American Philosophical Quarterly
  9. 2010, Dialectica
  10. 2011, Confrmation in a branching world: The Everett interpretation and Sleeping Beauty., British Journal for the Philosophy of Science
  11. 2011, Self‐location is no problem for conditionalization., Synthese
  12. 2012, Four problems about self‐locating belief., Philosophical Review
  13. 2006, When betting odds and credences come apart: More worries for Dutch Book arguments., Analysis
  14. Bratman,, 1987, Intention, Plans, and Practical Reason
  15. Briggs, R. (2010). Putting a value on Beauty. In T. S. Gendler and J. Hawthorne (Eds.), Oxford Studies in Epistemology, Volume 3, pp. 3–34. Oxford University Press.
  16. Brody,, 1989, Readings in the Philosophy of Science
  17. Broome,, 1999, Normative requirements., Ratio, 10.1111/1467-9329.00101 · DOI
  18. Carnap,, 1950, Logical Foundations of Probability
  19. 1952, The Continuum of Inductive Methods
  20. 1955, Statistical and inductive probability.
  21. 2011, Revisability and conceptual change in “Two Dogmas of Empiricism.”, Journal of Philosophy
  22. Cherniak,, 1986, Minimal Rationality
  23. Christensen,, 1991, Clever bookies and coherent beliefs., The Philosophical Review, 10.2307/2185301 · DOI
  24. 2000, Diachronic coherence versus epistemic impartiality., Philosophical Review
  25. 2004, Putting Logic in its Place
  26. ——— (2007). Does Murphy's Law apply in epistemology? Self‐doubt and rational ideals. In Oxford Studies in Epistemology, Volume 2, pp. 3–31. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  27. Conee,, 2004, Evidentialism, 10.1093/0199253722.001.0001 · DOI
  28. de, 1972, Probability, Induction, and Statistics
  29. Dorr,, 2002, Sleeping Beauty: In defence of Elga., Analysis, 10.1093/analys/62.4.292 · DOI
  30. Draper,, 2008, Diachronic Dutch Books and Sleeping Beauty., Synthese, 10.1007/s11229-007-9226-1 · DOI
  31. Earman,, 1992, Bayes or Bust? A Critical Examination of Bayesian Confrmation Theory
  32. Easwaran, K. K. (2008). The Foundations of Conditional Probability. Ph.D. thesis, University of California, Berkeley.
  33. Edgington,, 1996, Lowe on conditional probability., Mind, 10.1093/mind/105.420.617 · DOI
  34. Edwards,, 1963, Bayesian statistical inference for psychological research., Psychological Review, 10.1037/h0044139 · DOI · Paper page
  35. Eells,, 1985, Problems of old evidence., Pacifc Philosophical Quarterly, 10.1111/j.1468-0114.1985.tb00254.x · DOI
  36. Einstein, A., B. Podolsky, and N. Rosen (1983). Can quantum‐mechanical description of physical reality be considered complete? In J. A. Wheeler and W. H. Zurek (Eds.), Quantum Theory and Measurement, pp. 138–41. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
  37. Elga,, 2000, Self‐locating belief and the Sleeping Beauty problem., Analysis, 10.1093/analys/60.2.143 · DOI
  38. 2004, Defeating Dr. Evil with self‐locating belief., Philosophy and Phenomenological Research
  39. 2007, Refection and disagreement., Noûs
  40. Everett,, 1957, “Relative state” formulation of quantum mechanics., Review of Modern Physics, 10.1103/RevModPhys.29.454 · DOI · Paper page
  41. Evnine,, 2008, Epistemic Dimensions of Personhood, 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199239948.001.0001 · DOI
  42. Fagin,, 1988, Belief, awareness, and limited reasoning., Artifcial Intelligence
  43. Feldman, R. (2007). Reasonable religious disagreements. In L. M. Antony (Ed.), Philosophers without Gods: Meditations on Atheism and the Secular Life. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  44. Field,, 2009, What is the normative role of logic?, Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society Supplementary, 10.1111/j.1467-8349.2009.00181.x · DOI
  45. Fitelson,, 2008, Goodman's “new riddle.”, Journal of Philosophical Logic, 10.1007/s10992-008-9083-5 · DOI
  46. Forbes,, 1994, Modern Logic
  47. Gaifman,, 1964, Concerning measures in frst order calculi., Israel Journal of Mathematics, 10.1007/BF02759729 · DOI
  48. ——— (1988). A theory of higher‐order probabilities. In B. Skyrms and W. Harper (Eds.), Causation, Chance, and Credence, pp. 191–219. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
  49. 2004, Reasoning with limited resources and assigning probabilities to arithmetical statements., Synthese
  50. Garber, D. (1983). Old evidence and logical omniscience in Bayesian confrmation theory. In J. Earman (Ed.), Testing Scientifc Theories, pp. 99–132. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.334
  51. Good,, 1968, Corroboration, explanation, evolving probability, simplicity and a sharpened razor., British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 10.1093/bjps/19.2.123 · DOI
  52. 1974, A little learning can be dangerous., British Journal for the Philosophy of Science
  53. Goodman,, 1979, Fact, Fiction, and Forecast
  54. Greaves,, 2004, Understanding Deutsch's probability in a deterministic universe., Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics, 10.1016/j.shpsb.2004.04.006 · DOI · Paper page
  55. 2007, On the Everettian epistemic problem., Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics
  56. 2006, Justifying conditionalization: Conditionalization maximizes expected epistemic utility., Mind
  57. Green,, 1994, Refections on refection: van Fraassen on belief., Synthese, 10.1007/BF01063945 · DOI
  58. Hacking,, 1967, Slightly more realistic personal probability., Philosophy of Science, 10.1086/288169 · DOI
  59. Hailperin,, 2000, Probability semantics for quantifer logic., Journal of Philosophical Logic, 10.1023/A:1004754819280 · DOI
  60. Hájek,, 2003, What conditional probability could not be., Synthese, 10.1023/B:SYNT.0000004904.91112.16 · DOI
  61. Hall,, 2004, Two mistakes about credence and chance., Australasian Journal of Philosophy, 10.1080/713659806 · DOI · Paper page
  62. Halpern, J. Y. (2005). Sleeping Beauty reconsidered: Conditioning and refection in asynchronous systems. In T. Gendler and J. Hawthorne (Eds.), Oxford Studies in Epistemology, Volume 1, pp. 111–42. Oxford: Oxford University Press. · DOI
  63. 2004, Representation dependence in probabilistic inference., Journal of Artifcial Intelligence Research
  64. Harman,, 1986, Change in View
  65. 2009, Field on the normative role of logic., Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society
  66. Hawley,, 2011, Inertia, optimism and Beauty.
  67. Hawthorne, J. (2009). The Lockean thesis and the logic of belief. In F. Huber and C. Schmidt‐Petri (Eds.), Degrees of Belief, Volume 342 of Synthese Library, pp. 49–74. Dordrecht: Springer. · DOI
  68. Hempel,, 1945, Studies in the logic of confrmation (I)., Mind
  69. Herron,, 1997, Divisive conditioning: Further results on dilation., Philosophy of Science, 10.1086/392559 · DOI
  70. Hitchcock,, 2004, Beauty and the bets., Synthese, 10.1023/B:SYNT.0000024889.29125.c0 · DOI
  71. Horgan,, 2004, Sleeping Beauty awakened: New odds at the dawn of the new day., Analysis, 10.1093/analys/64.1.10 · DOI
  72. Hunter,, 1996, Metalogic: An Introduction to the Metatheory of Standard First Order Logic
  73. Hutchison,, 1999, What are conditional probabilities conditional upon?, British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 10.1093/bjps/50.4.665 · DOI
  74. Jackson,, 1986, Oughts, options, and actualism., The Philosophical Review, 10.2307/2185591 · DOI
  75. Jeffrey, R. C. (1983a). Bayesianism with a human face. In J. Earman (Ed.), Testing Scientifc Theories, pp. 133–56. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press. · DOI
  76. 1983, The Logic of Decision
  77. Jeffreys,, 1973, Scientifc Inference
  78. Joyce,, 1999, The Foundations of Causal Decision Theory, 10.1017/CBO9780511498497 · DOI
  79. Kaplan,, 1996, Decision Theory as Philosophy, 10.1017/CBO9780511804847 · DOI
  80. Kearns,, 2008, Reasons: Explanations or evidence?, Ethics, 10.1086/592587 · DOI
  81. Kemeny,, 1955, Fair bets and inductive probabilities., The Journal of Symbolic Logic, 10.2307/2268222 · DOI
  82. Keynes,, 1921, Treatise on Probability
  83. 1937, The general theory of employment., Quarterly Journal of Economics
  84. Kierland,, 2005, Minimizing inaccuracy for self‐locating beliefs., Philosophy and Phenomenological Research, 10.1111/j.1933-1592.2005.tb00533.x · DOI
  85. Kim,, 2009, Sleeping Beauty and shifted Jefrey conditionalization., Synthese, 10.1007/s11229-008-9443-2 · DOI
  86. Knight,, 1921, Risk, Uncertainty and Proft
  87. Kolmogorov,, 1950, Foundations of the Theory of Probability
  88. Kolodny,, 2005, Why be rational?, Mind, 10.1093/mind/fzi509 · DOI
  89. 2010, Ifs and oughts., Journal of Philosophy
  90. Koopman,, 1940, The axioms and algebra of intuitive probability., The Annals of Mathematics, 10.2307/1969003 · DOI
  91. Krantz,, 1971, Foundations of Measurement
  92. Kripke, S. A. (1979). A puzzle about belief. In A. Margalit (Ed.), Meaning and Use, pp. 239–83. Dordrecht: D. Reidel Publishing Company. · DOI
  93. Kuhn,, 1970, The Structure of Scientifc Revolutions
  94. Kyburg,, 1974, The Logical Foundations of Statistical Inference, 10.1007/978-94-010-2175-3 · DOI
  95. 1977, Randomness and the right reference class., The Journal of Philosophy
  96. Lance,, 1995, Subjective probability and acceptance., Philosophical Studies, 10.1007/BF00996316 · DOI
  97. Leitgeb,, 2010, An objective justifcation of Bayesianism II: The consequences of minimizing inaccuracy., Philosophy of Science
  98. Levi,, 1980, The Enterprise of Knowledge
  99. 1987, The demons of decision., The Monist
  100. Lewis,, 1946, An Analysis of Knowledge and Valuation
  101. Lewis,, 1976, Probabilities of conditionals and conditional probabilities., The Philosophical Review
  102. ——— (1976b). Survival and identity. In A. Rorty (Ed.), The Identity of Persons, pp. 17–40. Berkeley: University of California Press.336 · DOI
  103. 1986, On the Plurality of Worlds
  104. 2001, Sleeping Beauty: Reply to Elga., Analysis
  105. Lewis,, 2007, Quantum Sleeping Beauty., Analysis, 10.1093/analys/67.1.59 · DOI
  106. 2010, Credence and self‐location., Synthese
  107. MacFarlane,, 2005, Making sense of relative truth., Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society
  108. In what sense (if any) is logic normative for thought?
  109. 1996, Subjective and objective confrmation., Philosophy of Science
  110. ——— (2004). Probability captures the logic of scientifc confrmation. In C. R. Hitchcock (Ed.), Contemporary Debates in Philosophy of Science, pp. 69–93. Oxford: Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
  111. McGee,, 1985, A counterexample to modus ponens., Journal of Philosophy, 10.2307/2026276 · DOI
  112. Meacham,, 2008, Sleeping Beauty and the dynamics of de se beliefs., Philosophical Studies, 10.1007/s11098-006-9036-1 · DOI · Paper page
  113. 2010, Unravelling the tangled web: Continuity, internalism, non‐uniqueness and self‐locating beliefs., Oxford Studies in Epistemology
  114. Meyer,, 1971, Entailment., The Journal of Philosophy, 10.2307/2024953 · DOI
  115. Monton,, 2002, Sleeping Beauty and the forgetful Bayesian., Analysis, 10.1093/analys/62.1.47 · DOI
  116. Moss,, Philosophy and Phenomenological Research
  117. Nozick,, 1981, Philosophical Explanations
  118. Parft,, 1984, Reasons and Persons
  119. Piccione,, 1997, On the interpretation of decision problems with imperfect recall., Games and Economic Behavior, 10.1006/game.1997.0536 · DOI
  120. Pollock,, 1974, Knowledge and Justifcation
  121. 1990, Nomic Probability and the Foundations of Induction
  122. Popper,, 1961, The Logic of Scientifc Discovery
  123. Price,, Probability in the Everett world: Comments on Wallace and Greaves.
  124. Priest,, 1979, Two dogmas of Quineanism., The Philosophical Quarterly, 10.2307/2219445 · DOI
  125. Pust,, 2012, Journal of Philosophy
  126. Quine,, 1951, Two dogmas of empiricism., The Philosophical Review, 10.2307/2181906 · DOI
  127. Ramsey, F. P. (1931). Truth and probability. In R. B. Braithwaite (Ed.), The Foundations of Mathematics and other Logic Essays, pp. 156–98. New York: Harcourt, Brace and Company.
  128. 1978, Law and causality.
  129. Rawls,, 1971, A Theory of Justice, 10.4159/9780674042605 · DOI · Paper page
  130. Renyi,, 1970, Foundations of Probability
  131. Ross,, 2010, Sleeping Beauty, countable additivity, and rational dilemmas., Philosophical Review, 10.1215/00318108-2010-010 · DOI
  132. Saunders,, 1998, Time, quantum mechanics, and probability., Synthese, 10.1023/A:1005079904008 · DOI
  133. 2010, Many Worlds? Everett, Quantum Theory, and Reality
  134. 2008, Branching and uncertainty., British Journal for the Philosophy of Science
  135. Savage,, 1967, Difculties in the theory of personal probability., Philosophy of Science, 10.1086/288168 · DOI
  136. Schervish,, 2004, Stopping to refect., Journal of Philosophy, 10.5840/jphil2004101614 · DOI
  137. Philosophical Studies
  138. Scott, D. and P. Krauss (1966). Assigning probabilities to logical formulas. In J. Hintikka and P. Suppes (Eds.), Aspects of Inductive Logic, pp. 219–64. Amsterdam: North‐Holland Publishing Company. · DOI
  139. Seidenfeld,, 1986, Entropy and uncertainty., Philosophy of Science, 10.1086/289336 · DOI
  140. 1993, Dilation for sets of probabilities., The Annals of Statistics
  141. Sepielli,, 2009, What to do when you don't know what to do., Oxford Studies in Metaethics, 10.1093/oso/9780199566303.003.0002 · DOI
  142. Shafer,, 1976, A Mathematical Theory of Evidence, 10.1515/9780691214696 · DOI
  143. Shimony, A. (1970). Scientifc inference. In R. G. Colodny (Ed.), The Nature & Function of Scientifc Theories, Volume 4 of Essays in Contemporary Science and Philosophy, pp. 79–172. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press.
  144. Skyrms, B. (1980). Higher order degrees of belief. In D. H. Mellor (Ed.), Prospects for Pragmatism, pp. 109–37. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  145. Smith,, 1994, The Moral Problem
  146. Stalnaker,, 1970, Probability and conditionals., Philosophy of Science, 10.1086/288280 · DOI
  147. 2008, Our Knowledge of the Internal World
  148. 2011, Responses to Stoljar, Weatherson and Boghossian., Philosophical Studies
  149. Talbott,, 1991, Two principles of Bayesian epistemology., Philosophical Studies, 10.1007/BF00419049 · DOI
  150. Tappenden,, 2011, Evidence and uncertainty in Everett's multiverse., British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 10.1093/bjps/axq006 · DOI
  151. Teller, P. (1976). Conditionalization, observation, and change of preference. In W. Harper and C. A. Hooker (Eds.), Foundations of Probability Theory, Statistical Inference, and Statistical Theories of Science, pp. 205–53. Dordrecht: D. Reidel Publishing Company. · DOI
  152. In defense of right reason.
  153. Self‐locating credences.
  154. van, 1981, A problem for relative information minimizers., British Journal for the Philosophy of Science
  155. 1984, Belief and the will., The Journal of Philosophy
  156. ——— (1990). Figures in a probability landscape. In M. Dunn and A. Gupta (Eds.), Truth or Consequences, pp. 345–56. Dordrecht: Kluwer.
  157. 1995, Belief and the problem of Ulysses and the Sirens., Philosophical Studies
  158. Vineberg,, 1997, Dutch books, Dutch strategies and what they show about rationality., Philosophical Studies, 10.1023/A:1017932926382 · DOI
  159. Beauty's cautionary tale.
  160. Walley,, 1991, Statistical Reasoning with Imprecise Probabilities, 10.1007/978-1-4899-3472-7 · DOI
  161. 1996, Measures of uncertainty in expert systems., Artifcial Intelligence
  162. Weatherson,, 2002, Keynes, uncertainty and interest rates., Cambridge Journal of Economics, 10.1093/cje/26.1.47 · DOI
  163. 2005, Should we respond to evil with indiference?, Philosophy and Phenomenological Research
  164. 2011, Stalnaker on Sleeping Beauty., Philosophical Studies
  165. Weisberg,, 2007, Conditionalization, refection, and self‐knowledge., Philosophical Studies, 10.1007/s11098-007-9073-4 · DOI
  166. Weisberg,, 2007, Three kinds of idealization., Journal of Philosophy, 10.5840/jphil20071041240 · DOI · Paper page
  167. White,, 2005, Epistemic permissiveness., Philosophical Perspectives, 10.1111/j.1520-8583.2005.00069.x · DOI
  168. Williams,, 1980, Bayesian conditionalisation and the principle of minimum information., British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 10.1093/bjps/31.2.131 · DOI
  169. Williamson,, 2000, Knowledge and Its Limits
  170. 2007, How probable is an infnite sequence of heads?, Analysis

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Related

See all

Metadata

Authors
Titelbaum, M. G.
Affiliations
University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
Corresponding author
Titelbaum, Michael G.
Publisher
Oxford University PressOxford
Published
2012-12-20
DOI
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199658305.001.0001
OpenAlex
W4250785122
Cited by
49
References
5
Citations by year
2025: 19 · 2024: 6 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 1 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 1 · 2017: 4 · 2016: 1 · 2015: 2 · 2014: 2
FWCI
2.10
Type
book
Language
en
Open access
closed
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Philosophy › Epistemology, Ethics, and Metaphysics
  • Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Logic, Reasoning, and Knowledge
  • Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
Keywords
subjective Bayesianism, conditionalization, memory loss, context sensitivity, Sleeping Beauty problem, self-locating belief, degrees of belief, rationality constraints

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review