Cited by 120Health Promotion and Cardiovascular PreventionLipoproteins and Cardiovascular HealthCardiovascular Health and Risk Factors

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Prediction of individualized lifetime benefit from cholesterol lowering, blood pressure lowering, antithrombotic therapy, and smoking cessation in apparently healthy people

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Jaspers, Nicole E M, Blaha, Michael J, Matsushita, Kunihiro, van der Schouw, Yvonne T, Wareham, Nicholas J, Khaw, Kay-Tee, Geisel, Marie H, Lehmann, Nils, Erbel, Raimund, Jöckel, Karl-Heinz, van der Graaf, Yolanda, Verschuren, W M Monique, Boer, Jolanda M A, Nambi, Vijay, Visseren, Frank L J, Dorresteijn, Jannick A N·2020·European Heart Journal

DOI 10.1093/eurheartj/ehz239PMC PMC7229871

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Abstract

Aims: The benefit an individual can expect from preventive therapy varies based on risk-factor burden, competing risks, and treatment duration. We developed and validated the LIFEtime-perspective CardioVascular Disease (LIFE-CVD) model for the estimation of individual-level 10 years and lifetime treatment-effects of cholesterol lowering, blood pressure lowering, antithrombotic therapy, and smoking cessation in apparently healthy people. Methods and results: Model development was conducted in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (n = 6715) using clinical predictors. The model consists of two complementary Fine and Gray competing-risk adjusted left-truncated subdistribution hazard functions: one for hard cardiovascular disease (CVD)-events, and one for non-CVD mortality. Therapy-effects were estimated by combining the functions with hazard ratios from preventive therapy trials. External validation was performed in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (n = 9250), Heinz Nixdorf Recall (n = 4177), and the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Netherlands (n = 25 833), and Norfolk (n = 23 548) studies. Calibration of the LIFE-CVD model was good and c-statistics were 0.67–0.76. The output enables the comparison of short-term vs. long-term therapy-benefit. In two people aged 45 and 70 with otherwise identical risk-factors, the older patient has a greater 10-year absolute risk reduction (11.3% vs. 1.0%) but a smaller gain in life-years free of CVD (3.4 vs. 4.5 years) from the same therapy. The model was developed into an interactive online calculator available via www.U-Prevent.com. Conclusion: The model can accurately estimate individual-level prognosis and treatment-effects in terms of improved 10-year risk, lifetime risk, and life-expectancy free of CVD. The model is easily accessible and can be used to facilitate personalized-medicine and doctor–patient communication.

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Authors: Jaspers, N. E. M., Blaha, M. J., Matsushita, K., van der Schouw, Y. T., Wareham, N. J., Khaw, K.-T., Geisel, M. H., Lehmann, N., Erbel, R., Jöckel, K.-H., van der Graaf, Y., Verschuren, W. M. M., Boer, J. M. A., Nambi, V., Visseren, F. L. J., & Dorresteijn, J. A. N.
Affiliations: University Medical Center Utrecht (NL)
Johns Hopkins University (US)
Julius Center for Health Sciences, University Medical Center Utrecht , Heidelberglaan 100, 3584 CX Utrecht, Netherlands
University of Cambridge (GB)
Essen University Hospital (DE)
National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (NL)
Michael E. DeBakey VA Medical Center (US)
Corresponding author: Visseren, Frank L J
ORCID: Blaha, Michael J
Matsushita, Kunihiro
Wareham, Nicholas J
Khaw, Kay-Tee
Verschuren, W M Monique
Boer, Jolanda M A
Nambi, Vijay
Visseren, Frank L J
Dorresteijn, Jannick A N
Venue: European Heart Journal
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Published: 2019-05-18
Volume: 41
Issue: 11
Pages: 1190-1199
ISSN: 0195-668X (ISSN-L)
1522-9645
DOI: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehz239
PMC: PMC7229871
OpenAlex: W2946535940
Semantic Scholar: 368b09086d76ea5df90cd8c033f6fe36aba73100
Cited by: 120
References: 34
Citations by year: 2026: 11 · 2025: 13 · 2024: 18 · 2023: 15 · 2022: 20 · 2021: 24 · 2020: 14 · 2019: 5
FWCI: 14.50
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: green
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Licence: academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model (vor)
Locations: European Heart Journal (publishedVersion)
PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Universitätsbibliographie, Universität Duisburg-Essen (submittedVersion)
Apollo (University of Cambridge) (submittedVersion)
Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
Rivm Repository (Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) (submittedVersion)
Rivm (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) (submittedVersion)
Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion)
Apollo
Funders: Netherlands Heart Foundation (2016T026, HHSN268201500003I, N01-HC-95159, N01-HC-95160, N01-HC-95161, N01-HC-95162, N01-HC-95163, N01-HC-95164, N01-HC-95165, N01-HC-95166, N01-HC-95167, N01-HC-95168, N01-HC-95169)
National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (UL1-TR-000040, UL1-TR-001420)
NCATS
National Institutes of Health (HHSN268201700001I, HHSN268201700002I, HHSN268201700003I, HHSN268201700005I, HHSN268201700004I)
‘Europe Against Cancer’ programme of the European commission
Dutch ministry of health, Welfare and Sports
Netherlands Organization for Research and Development
World Cancer Research Fund
Medical Research Council
Heinz Nixdorf Foundation
German Ministry of Education and Science
BMBF
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt
German Research Council Assessment (SI 236/8-1, SI 236/9-1)
Topics: Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Health Promotion and Cardiovascular Prevention
Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Lipoproteins and Cardiovascular Health
Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Cardiovascular Health and Risk Factors
Keywords: cardiovascular risk prediction, cholesterol lowering, blood pressure reduction, antithrombotic therapy, smoking cessation, prophylaxis, competing risks, absolute risk reduction, personalized medicine, physician-patient communication, online risk calculator
MeSH terms: Aged, Blood Pressure, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cholesterol, Fibrinolytic Agents, Humans, Middle Aged, Netherlands, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, Smoking Cessation

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Prediction of individualized lifetime benefit from cholesterol lowering, blood pressure lowering, antithrombotic therapy, and smoking cessation in apparently healthy people

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