Autism spectrum disorders in young children: effect of changes in diagnostic practices
Abstract
BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether the increase in autism over the past two decades is a real increase or due to changes in diagnosis and ascertainment of autism spectrum disorders (ASDs), which include autism, Asperger syndrome and pervasive developmental disorder not otherwise specified (PDD-NOS). The aim of this study was to examine the trends in ASD over time in Western Australia (WA) and the possible effects and contribution of changes in diagnostic criteria, age at diagnosis, eligibility for service provision based on ASD diagnoses and changes in diagnostic practices. METHODS: A population-based study was conducted among the cohort of children born in WA between 1983 and 1999 and diagnosed with ASD between the age of 2 and 8 years up to December 31, 2004. The trend in ASD diagnosis over the study period was assessed by investigating birth cohort and period effects, and examining whether these were modified by age of diagnosis. ASD diagnosis corresponding with changes in diagnostic criteria, funding and service provision over time were also investigated. A subgroup analysis of children aged <or=5 years was also conducted to examine trends in the incidence and age of diagnosis of ASD and intellectual disability (ID) and to investigate the role of changes in diagnostic practices. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of ASD among children born between 1983 and 1999 and diagnosed by age 8 was 30 per 10,000 births with the prevalence of autism comprising 21 per 10,000 births. The prevalence of ASD increased by 11.9% per annum, from 8 cases per 10,000 births in 1983 to 46 cases per 10,000 births in 1999. The annual incidence of ASD, based on newly diagnosed ASD cases in each year from 1985 to 2002, increased over the study period. The increase in incidence of ASD appeared to coincide with changes in diagnostic criteria and availability of funding and services in WA, particularly for children aged <5 years. The age-specific rates of autism and PDD-NOS increased over time and the median age of diagnosis for autism decreased from 4 to 3 years of age throughout the 1990s. For children aged <or=5 years the incidence of ASD diagnosis increased significantly from 1992, with an average annual increase of 22%. Similar findings were found for autism. In the corresponding years the incidence of diagnosis of severe ID fell by 10% per annum and mild-moderate ID increased by 3% per annum. CONCLUSIONS: The rise in incidence of all types of ASDs by year of diagnosis appears to be related to changes in diagnostic and service provision practices in WA. In children aged
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A change in the way records are coded (e.g., upcoding or changes in coding systems) may alter the study population.
“A change in the way records are coded (e.g., upcoding or changes in coding systems, as described above) may alter the study population [63,75,76].”
From The Reporting of Studies Conducted Using Observational Routinely-Collected Health Data (RECORD) statement. (2015) · cites this paper as [75]
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“All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.rasd.2011.09.006 The observed prevalence of ASD has increased over the past few decades (Leonard et al., 2010; Lin, Hung, Lin, & Lai, 2011; Lin, Lin, & Wu, 2009; Lin, Sung, et al., 2011; Lingam et al., 2003; Matson & Kozlowski, 2011; Nassar et al., 2009).”
BackgroundInfluentialSelf‐reported impact of developmental stuttering across the lifespan
Boyce, J. O., Jackson, V. E., van Reyk, O., Parker, R., Vogel, A. P., Eising, E., Horton, S. E., Gillespie, N. A., Scheffer, I. E., Amor, D. J., et al. (2022) · Developmental Medicine & Child Neurology · doi:10.1111/dmcn.15211 · Cited by 40 · see citing works
“Rates of diagnoses for many of these conditions have also increased over time.(35) Neuropsychiatric diagnoses were reported in 22% of adults with stuttering.”
BackgroundThe value of ecologic studies: mercury concentration in ambient air and the risk of autism
Blanchard, K. S., Palmer, R. F., & Stein, Z. W. (2011) · Reviews on Environmental Health · doi:10.1515/reveh.2011.015 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
Interventions used with an Australian sample of preschool children with autism spectrum disorders
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Sociodemographic risk factors associated with autism spectrum disorders and intellectual disability
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“Bearman, 2009; Nassar et al., 2009; Shattuck 2006].”
The prevalence of autism: genuine and imaginary
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The incidence of diagnosed autism spectrum disorders in Finland
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“[14] Nassar N, Dixon G, Bourke J, Bower C, Glasson E, de Klerk N, et al.”
BackgroundExamination of the prevalence of stimulus overselectivity in children with ASD
Rieth, S. R., Stahmer, A. C., Suhrheinrich, J., & Schreibman, L. (2014) · Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis · doi:10.1002/jaba.165 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
“The broadening of the definition of ASD has played a large role in altering the population of children who receive services for the disorder (Fombonne, 2001; Kabot, Masi, & Segal, 2003; Nassar et al., 2009; Steyaert & De la Marche, 2008; Wolff, 2004).”
Bourke, J., Wong, K., & Leonard, H. (2018) · BMJ Open · doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2017-019113 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
“17 24 25 The effect of removing these conditions from our HMDS search list would have been to slightly increase the sensitivity and positive predictive value of using HMDS to identify ID. Children with a cause of ID commonly known to be associated with ID, such as Down syndrome or Prader-Willi…”
MethodSelf-citationFairthorne, J., Hammond, G., Bourke, J., de Klerk, N. H., & Leonard, H. (2015) · Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders · doi:10.1007/s10803-015-2594-3 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
“In Western Australia (WA), ASD affects 3 per 1000 (Nassar et al. 2009) and is less common than ID which affects 14 per 1000 (Leonard et al.”
Self-citationOral Health Status of Children with Autism in Central Italy
Bossù, M., Trottini, M., Corridore, D., Giorgio, G. D., Sfasciotti, G. L., Palaia, G., Ottolenghi, L., Polimeni, A., & Carlo, S. D. (2020) · Applied Sciences · doi:10.3390/app10072247 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
“While some people with ASD can live independently, others have severe disabilities and require life-long care and support [2].”
BackgroundEvidence of a reduction over time in the behavioral severity of autistic disorder diagnoses
Whitehouse, A., Cooper, M. N., Bebbington, K. R., Alvares, G. A., Lin, A. P., Wray, J. A., & Glasson, E. J. (2017) · Autism Research · doi:10.1002/aur.1740 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
“…greater awareness of ASD among clinicians and the community [Charman 2002; Leonard et al., 2010] and the introduction of Government funded services specific to individuals with a diagnosis of Autistic Disorder [Gurney et al., 2003; Leonard et al., 2010; Mandell & Palmer, 2005; Nassar et al., 2009].”
BackgroundSelf-citationCarlon, S., Stephenson, J. R., & Carter, M. (2014) · Australasian Journal of Special Education · doi:10.1017/jse.2014.4 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Epidemiology of Autism Spectrum Disorders
Presmanes Hill, A., Zuckerman, K., & Fombonne, E. (2015) · Translational Approaches to Autism Spectrum Disorder · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-16321-5_2 · Cited by 94 · see citing works
Neonatal jaundice and autism spectrum disorder: a systematic review and meta-analysis
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“5,5] 425 100 34,9 [31,7–38,4]”
InfluentialIntellectual disability and autism prevalence in Western Australia: impact of the NDIS
Bourke, J., Sanders, R., Jones, J., Ranjan, M., Wong, K., & Leonard, H. (2024) · Frontiers in Psychiatry · doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2024.1359505 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
“The prevalence of ASD worldwide has increased over time with considerable variability depending on methodology, geographical location, and sources of ascertainment (13 – 16).”
BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citationAbdullahi, I., Wong, K., Bebbington, K. R., Mutch, R. C., de Klerk, N. H., Cherian, S., Downs, J. A., Leonard, H., & Glasson, E. J. (2019) · Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders · doi:10.1007/s10803-019-04068-z · Cited by 20 · see citing works
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The modified checklist for autism in Turkish toddlers: A different cultural adaptation sample
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Épidémiologie de l’autisme : où en sommes-nous ?
Fombonne, E. J., Myers, J., Chavez, A. E., Hill, A. P., Zuckerman, K. E., & Pry, R. (2019) · Enfance · doi:10.3917/enf2.191.0013 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Fairthorne, J., Fisher, C. M., Bourke, J., & Leonard, H. (2014) · Journal of Psychology Research · doi:10.17265/2159-5542/2014.08.005 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
“Since the 1980s, the prevalence of autism diagnosis has been increasing both internationally (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2012) and in Australia (Nassar et al., 2009).”
BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citationReport of audit of disability research in Australia
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Genetic Counseling for Autism Spectrum Disorder in an Evolving Theoretical Landscape
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“Receiving an AS diagnosis at a later age could represent a last resort diagnosis in individuals already presenting a complex psychiatric profile and/or reflect changes in diagnostic practices in the last decades (Nassar et al., 2009).”
BackgroundAutism Spectrum Disorders: The Role of Genetics in Diagnosis and Treatment
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Interventions based on the Theory of Mind cognitive model for autism spectrum disorder (ASD)
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Could head circumference be used to screen for autism in young males with developmental delay?
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Application of Population-Based Linked Data to the Study of Intellectual Disability and Autism
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Epidemiology of Autism Spectrum Disorders
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Autism Spectrum Disorder Diagnosis in Australia: Are we meeting best practice standards?
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Exploration of caregiver experiences of reported first signs of autism
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Trastorno del espectro autista: Diagnóstico clínico y test ADOS
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Management of Autism in the Adult Intensive Care Unit
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A new structured interview for children with autism spectrum disorder based on the DSM-IV.
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“One interpretation for this result may be due to the increasing number of children or adolescents treated for autism spectrum disorder or attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder that have their onset in childhood [13, 44].”
BackgroundAbd, S., Hameed, E., Ramadan, E., & Elshair, I. H. H. (2012) · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Mental Health and Aging: A Life-Course Perspective
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“Though prevalence estimates continue to increase (Atladottir, 2007; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2012, 2014; Kogan et al., 2009; Nassar et al., 2009) research efforts have largely focused on the younger population of individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) (Hurlbutt &…”
Neonatal Jaundice and Autism: Precautionary Principle Invocation Overdue
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“Additionally, some data suggest a decrease in more severe and an increase in less severe cases [190]; this is consistent with Hansen et al.”
BackgroundResultEvolving Understanding of the Relationship Between Mercury Exposure and Autism
Lewandowski, T. A. (2010) · NATO science for peace and security series. C, Environmental security · doi:10.1007/978-94-007-0253-0_4 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
“A number of researchers have also suggested that a decrease in the stigma associated with autism, coupled with an increase in available special education services for autistic children and better screening programs for early detection, have lead to a greater willingness for psychiatrists and psychologists to diagnosis…”
Background
- Authors
- Nassar, N., Dixon, G., Bourke, J., Bower, C., Glasson, E., de Klerk, N., & Leonard, H.
- Affiliations
- The Kids Research Institute Australia (AU)
- Corresponding author
- Leonard, H.
- Venue
- International Journal of Epidemiology
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2009-09-07
- Volume
- 38
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 1245-1254
- ISSN
- 0300-5771 (ISSN-L)
- 1464-3685
- OpenAlex
- W2097406778
- Cited by
- 162
- References
- 34
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 5 · 2022: 10 · 2021: 8 · 2020: 11 · 2019: 10 · 2018: 9 · 2017: 6 · 2016: 12 · 2015: 14 · 2014: 18 · 2013: 7 · 2012: 13
- FWCI
- 6.94
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- International Journal of Epidemiology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- UWA Profiles and Research Repository (UWA) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Autism Spectrum Disorder Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Child Nutrition and Feeding Issues
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Family and Disability Support Research
- Keywords
- autism spectrum disorder, Asperger syndrome, pervasive developmental disorder not otherwise specified, age at diagnosis, diagnostic criteria revision, diagnostic practices, intellectual disability, service eligibility, Western Australia, young children
- MeSH terms
- Autistic Disorder, Child, Child, Preschool, Delivery of Health Care, Diagnosis, Differential, Female, Humans, Male, Medical Record Linkage, Western Australia, Prevalence, Practice Guidelines as Topic, Asperger Syndrome
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