Healthcare Process Modeling to Phenotype Clinician Behaviors for Exploiting the Signal Gain of Clinical Expertise (HPM-ExpertSignals): Development and evaluation of a conceptual framework
Open accessAbstract
Objective: There are signals of clinicians’ expert and knowledge-driven behaviors within clinical information systems (CIS) that can be exploited to support clinical prediction. Describe development of the Healthcare Process Modeling Framework to Phenotype Clinician Behaviors for Exploiting the Signal Gain of Clinical Expertise (HPM-ExpertSignals). Materials and Methods: We employed an iterative framework development approach that combined data-driven modeling and simulation testing to define and refine a process for phenotyping clinician behaviors. Our framework was developed and evaluated based on the Communicating Narrative Concerns Entered by Registered Nurses (CONCERN) predictive model to detect and leverage signals of clinician expertise for prediction of patient trajectories. Results: Seven themes—identified during development and simulation testing of the CONCERN model—informed framework development. The HPM-ExpertSignals conceptual framework includes a 3-step modeling technique: (1) identify patterns of clinical behaviors from user interaction with CIS; (2) interpret patterns as proxies of an individual’s decisions, knowledge, and expertise; and (3) use patterns in predictive models for associations with outcomes. The CONCERN model differentiated at risk patients earlier than other early warning scores, lending confidence to the HPM-ExpertSignals framework. Discussion: The HPM-ExpertSignals framework moves beyond transactional data analytics to model clinical knowledge, decision making, and CIS interactions, which can support predictive modeling with a focus on the rapid and frequent patient surveillance cycle. Conclusions: We propose this framework as an approach to embed clinicians’ knowledge-driven behaviors in predictions and inferences to facilitate capture of healthcare processes that are activated independently, and sometimes well before, physiological changes are apparent.
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AI is able to interpret nursing documentation to recognize patient types and predict clinical deterioration.
“AI is able to interpret nursing documentation to recognize patient types and predict clinical deterioration.43–47”
From Potential uses of AI for perioperative nursing handoffs: a qualitative study (2023) · cites this paper as [46]
The Methods section (page unavailable) says the CONCERN model uses natural language processing of nursing notes and comments and assigns patients low, moderate, or high risk scores. The Results section (page unavailable) reports that those scores predict adverse clinical events. The paper supports interpreting nursing documentation to predict deterioration, but it describes risk categories and phenotypes of clinician behavior, not recognition of patient types. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredNurse concern has been shown to be a valid and frequent reason for calling a rapid response.
“nurse concern has been shown to be a valid and frequent reason for calling a rapid response10.”
From Real-time surveillance system for patient deterioration: a pragmatic cluster-randomized controlled trial (2025) · cites this paper as [10]
In Materials and Methods (CONCERN model; page unavailable), the paper says a nurse’s concern is a valid reason to intervene without waiting for physiological changes. It does not say that nurse concern is a frequent reason for calling a rapid response team. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredLack of shared team situational awareness delays medical interventions.
“Unfortunately, when there is a lack of shared team situational awareness, medical interventions are delayed10,12–14.”
From Real-time surveillance system for patient deterioration: a pragmatic cluster-randomized controlled trial (2025) · cites this paper as [10]
The Discussion says responding to patient deterioration depends on effective team communication and activating interventions. The Methods section describes nurses’ concerns that are rarely viewed and a tool intended to increase team situational awareness. The paper does not establish that a lack of shared situational awareness delays medical interventions; it proposes a way to address that risk. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredCONCERN EWS was developed by an interdisciplinary team using rigorous methods for translating a predictive model to a clinical setting, including input on health care process effects, integration with workflows, transparency and explainability, and robust evaluation for external validity and model fairness.
“CONCERN EWS was developed by an interdisciplinary team that employed rigorous methods for translating a predictive model to a clinical setting, including nurse and prescribing-provider input on health care process effects and real-time data availability, integration with existing clinical workflows, transparency and explainability to gain trust10,45, as well as robust evaluation for external”
From Real-time surveillance system for patient deterioration: a pragmatic cluster-randomized controlled trial (2025) · cites this paper as [10]
The Materials and Methods describe iterative model refinement with clinical experts, simulation feedback from nurses and physicians, and a user-centered tool designed not to require new nursing workflows. They also report performance evaluation and corrections for demographic biases. The paper does not establish the claimed robust evaluation for external validity or model fairness, or specifically document transparency and explainability measures to gain trust; it describes broader applicability as future work (Discussion; page numbers unavailable). (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredCONCERN leverages evidence that nurses alter their documentation behavior or use selected language in their narrative notes when they are concerned about a patient's changing clinical state.
“As such, it leverages evidence that nurses alter their documentation behavior or use selected language in their narrative notes when they are concerned about a patient’s changing clinical state [21-24].”
From Factors influencing clinician trust in predictive clinical decision support systems for in-hospital deterioration: qualitative descriptive study (2022) · cites this paper as [22]
Nurses can observe subtle patient changes that suggest clinical deterioration is more likely.
“Nurses can observe subtle patient changes that suggest clinical deterioration is more likely10,21, and early recognition and escalation of treatment for these patients by the interprofessional care team, including transfer to the ICU, can improve outcomes.”
From Real-time surveillance system for patient deterioration: a pragmatic cluster-randomized controlled trial (2025) · cites this paper as [10]
Earlier predictions provide clinicians with greater lead time for action, ultimately enabling the care team to identify patients who may be entering a risky state with enough time to intervene.
“Earlier predictions provide clinicians with greater lead time for action24, ultimately enabling the care team to identify patients who may be entering a risky state with enough time to intervene10.”
From Real-time surveillance system for patient deterioration: a pragmatic cluster-randomized controlled trial (2025) · cites this paper as [10]
CONCERN EWS identifies all-cause deterioration up to 42 hours earlier than models reliant on physiological indicators.
“As a result, it identifies all-cause deterioration up to 42 hours earlier than models reliant on physiological indicators.”
From Real-time surveillance system for patient deterioration: a pragmatic cluster-randomized controlled trial (2025) · cites this paper as [10]
Increased nurse surveillance is an indicator of concern.
“Increased nurse surveillance is an indicator of concern10,12”
From Real-time surveillance system for patient deterioration: a pragmatic cluster-randomized controlled trial (2025) · cites this paper as [10]
The authors are not aware of any other EWS decision-support implementations that use a similar multifactorial, advanced computational and explainable modeling approach.
“We are not aware of any other EWS decision-support implementations that use a similar multifactorial, advanced computational and explainable modeling approach10.”
From Real-time surveillance system for patient deterioration: a pragmatic cluster-randomized controlled trial (2025) · cites this paper as [10]
CONCERN EWS overcomes the limitations of physiological measurements by leveraging nursing surveillance patterns and an existing expert knowledge base.
“By leveraging nursing surveillance patterns rather than physiological measures10,44, CONCERN EWS overcomes the limitations of physiological measurements8 and leverages an existing expert knowledge base: nurses’ autonomous decisions to take greater action and document more observations or notes than mandated by policy in direct response to concerning changes in a patient’s clinical state10,13.”
From Real-time surveillance system for patient deterioration: a pragmatic cluster-randomized controlled trial (2025) · cites this paper as [10]
CONCERN EWS's methodological choices, including robust modeling of temporal data patterns and use of nursing assessment and observational data, allowed it to have accurate and robust predictive power and sufficient lead time to alter a patient's clinical trajectory.
“Several methodological choices allowed CONCERN EWS to have accurate and robust predictive power and sufficient lead time to alter a patient’s clinical trajectory as we observed in this trial, including: (1) robust modeling of temporal data patterns40–42 (for example, time of day, day of week and patient hospital day) for health care processes (for example, nurses’ surveillance and medication”
From Real-time surveillance system for patient deterioration: a pragmatic cluster-randomized controlled trial (2025) · cites this paper as [10]
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“As such, it leverages evidence that nurses alter their documentation behavior or use selected language in their narrative notes when they are concerned about a patient’s changing clinical state [21-24].”
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“Therefore, CONCERN EWS can be used as clinical decision support to make the care team aware of deterioration much earlier so that more timely interventions can be performed 10 .”
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Predictive models: important problems and innovative methods
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Multisite Pragmatic Cluster-Randomized Controlled Trial of the CONCERN Early Warning SystemPreprint
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Self-citationDevelopment of a Mapping Table for Nursing Notes Based on Nurses’ Concerns in ICU Patients
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Enabling Techquity in Nursing Practice: Informatics, Technology, and Innovation
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- Authors
- Rossetti, S. C., Knaplund, C., Albers, D., Dykes, P. C., Kang, M. J., Korach, T. Z., Zhou, L., Schnock, K., Garcia, J., Schwartz, J., Fu, L.-H., Klann, J. G., Lowenthal, G., & Cato, K.
- Affiliations
- Columbia University (US)
- Department of Biomedical Informatics, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
- Brigham and Women's Hospital (US)
- Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
- Harvard University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Rossetti, Sarah Collins
- ORCID
- Venue
- Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2021-02-24
- Volume
- 28
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 1242-1251
- ISSN
- 1067-5027 (ISSN-L)
- 1527-974X
- PMC
- PMC8200261
- OpenAlex
- W3132307970
- Cited by
- 42
- References
- 58
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 5 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 6
- FWCI
- 2.39
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute of Nursing Research (1R01NR016941-01)
- CONCERN): Clinical Decision Support Communication for Risky Patient States and the National Institute of Nursing Research Reducing Health Disparities Through Informatics (T32NR007969)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Machine Learning in Healthcare
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › Health Information Management › Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › Health Information Management › Electronic Health Records Systems
- Keywords
- clinical expertise, clinical information systems, early warning scores, registered nurses, conceptual framework, healthcare process modeling, clinical decision-making, patient surveillance
- MeSH terms
- Data Science, Computer Simulation, Delivery of Health Care, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Phenotype
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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