Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem
Abstract
This paper examines the reflection problem that arises when a researcher observing the distribution of behaviour in a population tries to infer whether the average behaviour in some group influences the behaviour of the individuals that comprise the group. It is found that inference is not possible unless the researcher has prior information specifying the compisition of reference groups. If this information is available, the prospects for inference depend critically on the population relationship between the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes. Inference is difficult to implossible if these variables are functionally dependent or are statistically independent. The prospects are better if the variables defining reference groups and those directly affecting outcomes are moderately related in the population.
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- Authors
- Manski, C. F.
- Affiliations
- University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
- Corresponding author
- Manski, Charles F.
- ORCID
- Manski, Charles F.
- Venue
- The Review of Economic Studies
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 1993-07
- Volume
- 60
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 531
- ISSN
- 0034-6527 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2114389382
- Cited by
- 6,209
- References
- 28
- Citations by year
- 2026: 234 · 2025: 323 · 2024: 307 · 2023: 324 · 2022: 356 · 2021: 311 · 2020: 295 · 2019: 312 · 2018: 302 · 2017: 320 · 2016: 292 · 2015: 348 · 2014: 345 · 2013: 298 · 2012: 273
- FWCI
- 6.07
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- The Review of Economic Studies (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
- Social Sciences › Safety Research › Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Spatial and Panel Data Analysis
- Keywords
- reflection problem, reference groups, group composition, social influence, identification, functional dependence, statistical independence
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