PreprintCited by 143SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 ResearchVaccine Coverage and HesitancyCOVID-19 epidemiological studies

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Waning Effectiveness of the Third Dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine

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Patalon, Tal, Saciuk, Yaki, Peretz, Asaf, Perez, Galit, Lurie, Yoav, Maor, Yasmin, Gazit, Sivan·2022·Nature Communications

DOI 10.1101/2022.02.25.22271494PMC PMC9184525

Preprint — published as 10.1038/s41467-022-30884-6 · Paper page

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Abstract

The duration of protection of the third (booster) dose of the BioNTech/Pfizer BNT162b2 mRNA Coronavirus Disease 2019 vaccine has yet to be sufficiently researched, while global discussions around the necessity and effectiveness of a fourth dose are already underway. By conducting a retrospective study implementing a test-negative case-control design, analyzing 546,924 PCR tests performed throughout January 2022 by 389,265 persons who received three doses of the vaccine, we found that the effectiveness in each month since vaccination decreased significantly. Compared to those vaccinated early, on August 2021, relative protection against infection waned from 53.4% a month after vaccination to 16.5% three months after vaccination. These results suggest that there is a significant waning of vaccine effectiveness against the Omicron variant of the third dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine within a few months after administration and should prompt policy discussion as to additional booster doses and vaccine development.

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Fig. 1 Daily SARS-Cov-2 infection and SARS-Cov-2-related hospitalization rates per 10,000 persons. The graph exemplifies Omicron’s spread, with a rapid increase in infections and hospitalizations, peaking in mid-January.CC BY · PubMed Central

Fig. 2 Adjusted odds ratio (left) and vaccine effectiveness (right) against SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infection. Left: Data are presented as adjusted OR, as a function of time in months (calendrical month) since the administration of the third dose, with error bars indicating the corresponding 95% Wald’s C.I. Right: Data are presented as adjusted VE, as a function of time in months (calendrical month) since the administration of the third dose, with error bars indicating the corresponding 95% Wald’s C.I.CC BY · PubMed Central

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Authors: Patalon, T., Saciuk, Y., Peretz, A., Perez, G., Lurie, Y., Maor, Y., & Gazit, S.
Affiliations: Maccabi Healthcare Services (IL)
Shaare Zedek Medical Center (IL)
Corresponding author: Patalon, Tal
ORCID: Patalon, Tal
Saciuk, Yaki
Peretz, Asaf
Lurie, Yoav
Gazit, Sivan
Venue: Nature Communications
Publisher: openRxiv
Published: 2022-02-26
Volume: 13
Issue: 1
Pages: 3203-3203
ISSN: 2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.1101/2022.02.25.22271494
PMC: PMC9184525
OpenAlex: W4281648214
Cited by: 143
References: 23
Citations by year: 2026: 4 · 2025: 15 · 2024: 25 · 2023: 56 · 2022: 43
FWCI: 16.99
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: gold
doi.org
Licence: cc-by
Locations: Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
medRxiv (acceptedVersion)
PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
Topics: Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
Social Sciences › Health › Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
Keywords: BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine, COVID-19 vaccines, booster vaccination, waning vaccine effectiveness, Omicron variant, COVID-19 pandemic, test-negative case-control, PCR testing, duration of protection
MeSH terms: COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 Vaccines, BNT162 Vaccine, Humans, Retrospective Studies, RNA, Messenger

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Waning Effectiveness of the Third Dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine

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