The DOI matches its Crossref record; 23 of the 23 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Waning Effectiveness of the Third Dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine
Open accessPreprint — published as 10.1038/s41467-022-30884-6 · Paper page
Abstract
The duration of protection of the third (booster) dose of the BioNTech/Pfizer BNT162b2 mRNA Coronavirus Disease 2019 vaccine has yet to be sufficiently researched, while global discussions around the necessity and effectiveness of a fourth dose are already underway. By conducting a retrospective study implementing a test-negative case-control design, analyzing 546,924 PCR tests performed throughout January 2022 by 389,265 persons who received three doses of the vaccine, we found that the effectiveness in each month since vaccination decreased significantly. Compared to those vaccinated early, on August 2021, relative protection against infection waned from 53.4% a month after vaccination to 16.5% three months after vaccination. These results suggest that there is a significant waning of vaccine effectiveness against the Omicron variant of the third dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine within a few months after administration and should prompt policy discussion as to additional booster doses and vaccine development.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Figures
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“Therefore, apart from potential scarcity of data in comparing to unvaccinated individuals, this eligible yet unvaccinated population in a massively campaigned environment such as Israel is plausibly different in terms health related behaviour, which could introduce a bias in rendering it the reference group,43 as has been pointed out in previous vaccination studies of Israeli populations measuring”
From Short term, relative effectiveness of four doses versus three doses of BNT162b2 vaccine in people aged 60 years and older in Israel: retrospective, test negative, case-control study (2022) · cites this paper as [11]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIn the citing paper
“Notwithstanding these limitations, consistent findings were reached, indicating rapid waning of vaccine protection against symptomatic Omicron infection that are consistent with findings of other studies for effectiveness against Omicron infection (with no BA.1/BA.2 subvariant specified)42–48.”
From Duration of mRNA vaccine protection against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 subvariants in Qatar (2022) · cites this paper as [45]
In the citing paper
“Nonetheless, compared with the previously demonstrated waning pattern of the relative vaccine effectiveness of three doses versus two doses in real world settings (which begins around three months after inoculation), the relative effectiveness of the fourth dose against infection appears to wane sooner, just as waning after the third dose was sooner than after the second dose.11 26”
In the citing paper
“The waning of vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection is consistent with previous observations of the second and third doses of the BNT162b2b vaccine.10 11”
In the citing paper
“Nonetheless, supporting this design were previous covid-19 studies implementing a test negative design that yielded comparable results to cohort studies on this population,6 11 while presenting diminished bias in the short term outcomes of vaccinee effectiveness.”
In the citing paper
“The lack of pre-defined PCR testing protocols implemented in the study population also presented a challenge. This limitation has been discussed extensively in previous covid-19 observational studies and could lead to potential biases relating to healthcare seeking behaviour.6 11 38 39”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
Safety and Efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine
Polack, F. P., Thomas, S. J., Kitchin, N., Absalon, J., Gurtman, A., Lockhart, S., Perez, J. L., Pérez Marc, G., Moreira, E. D., Zerbini, C., et al. (2020) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa2034577 · Cited by 14,592
BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine in a Nationwide Mass Vaccination Setting
Dagan, N., Barda, N., Kepten, E., Miron, O., Perchik, S., Katz, M. A., Hernán, M. A., Lipsitch, M., Reis, B., & Balicer, R. D. (2021) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa2101765 · Cited by 2,527
Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant of concern
Andrews, N., Stowe, J., Kirsebom, F., Toffa, S., Rickeard, T., Gallagher, E., Gower, C., Kall, M., Groves, N., O’Connell, A.-M., et al. (2021) · doi:10.1101/2021.12.14.21267615 · Cited by 2,420
Perineuronal nets stabilize the grid cell network
Christensen, A. C., Lensjø, K. K., Lepperød, M. E., Dragly, S.-A., Sutterud, H., Blackstad, J. S., Fyhn, M., & Hafting, T. (2021) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-020-20241-w · Cited by 1,865
Waning Immune Humoral Response to BNT162b2 Covid-19 Vaccine over 6 Months
Levin, E. G., Lustig, Y., Cohen, C., Fluss, R., Indenbaum, V., Amit, S., Doolman, R., Asraf, K., Mendelson, E., Ziv, A., et al. (2021) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa2114583 · Cited by 1,703
Using Generalized Estimating Equations for Longitudinal Data Analysis
Ballinger, G. A. (2004) · Organizational Research Methods · doi:10.1177/1094428104263672 · Cited by 1,567
Haas, E. J., Angulo, F. J., McLaughlin, J. M., Anis, E., Singer, S. R., Khan, F., Brooks, N., Smaja, M., Mircus, G., Pan, K., et al. (2021) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(21)00947-8 · Cited by 1,564
Protection of BNT162b2 Vaccine Booster against Covid-19 in Israel
Bar-On, Y. M., Goldberg, Y., Mandel, M., Bodenheimer, O., Freedman, L., Kalkstein, N., Mizrahi, B., Alroy-Preis, S., Ash, N., Milo, R., et al. (2021) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa2114255 · Cited by 1,169
Waning Immunity after the BNT162b2 Vaccine in Israel
Goldberg, Y., Mandel, M., Bar-On, Y. M., Bodenheimer, O., Freedman, L., Haas, E. J., Milo, R., Alroy-Preis, S., Ash, N., & Huppert, A. (2021) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa2114228 · Cited by 1,034
Coresh, J., Turin, T. C., Matsushita, K., Sang, Y., Ballew, S. H., Appel, L. J., Arima, H., Chadban, S. J., Cirillo, M., Djurdjev, O., et al. (2014) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.2014.6634 · Cited by 988
Effectiveness of the BNT162b2 Covid-19 Vaccine against the B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 Variants
Abu-Raddad, L. J., Chemaitelly, H., & Butt, A. A. (2021) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmc2104974 · Cited by 899
Waning of BNT162b2 Vaccine Protection against SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Qatar
Chemaitelly, H., Tang, P., Hasan, M. R., AlMukdad, S., Yassine, H. M., Benslimane, F. M., Al Khatib, H. A., Coyle, P., Ayoub, H. H., Al Kanaani, Z., et al. (2021) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa2114114 · Cited by 831
BNT162b2 Vaccine Booster and Mortality Due to Covid-19
Arbel, R., Hammerman, A., Sergienko, R., Friger, M., Peretz, A., Netzer, D., & Yaron, S. (2021) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa2115624 · Cited by 336
Self-citationCorrelation of SARS-CoV-2-breakthrough infections to time-from-vaccine
Mizrahi, B., Lotan, R., Kalkstein, N., Peretz, A., Perez, G., Ben-Tov, A., Chodick, G., Gazit, S., & Patalon, T. (2021) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-021-26672-3 · Cited by 261
Self-citationLevine-Tiefenbrun, M., Yelin, I., Alapi, H., Katz, R., Herzel, E., Kuint, J., Chodick, G., Gazit, S., Patalon, T., & Kishony, R. (2021) · Nature Medicine · doi:10.1038/s41591-021-01575-4 · Cited by 222
Self-citationTenforde, M. W., Self, W. H., Naioti, E. A., Ginde, A. A., Douin, D. J., Olson, S. M., Talbot, H. K., Casey, J. D., Mohr, N. M., Zepeski, A., et al. (2021) · MMWR. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report · doi:10.15585/mmwr.mm7034e2 · Cited by 204
The epidemiology of diabetes in a large Israeli HMO
Chodick, G., Heymann, A. D., Shalev, V., & Kokia, E. S. (2003) · European Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1023/b:ejep.0000006635.36802.c8 · Cited by 177
The Effectiveness of the Two-Dose BNT162b2 Vaccine: Analysis of Real-World Data
Chodick, G., Tene, L., Rotem, R. S., Patalon, T., Gazit, S., Ben-Tov, A., Weil, C., Goldshtein, I., Twig, G., Cohen, D., et al. (2022) · Clinical Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1093/cid/ciab438 · Cited by 176
Self-citationCovid-19 Vaccine Effectiveness and the Test-Negative Design
Dean, N. E., Hogan, J. W., & Schnitzer, M. E. (2021) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejme2113151 · Cited by 168
Shalev, V., Chodick, G., Goren, I., Silber, H., Kokia, E. S., & Heymann, A. D. (2010) · International Journal of Cardiology · doi:10.1016/j.ijcard.2010.08.002 · Cited by 155
Patalon, T., Gazit, S., Pitzer, V. E., Prunas, O., Warren, J. L., & Weinberger, D. M. (2022) · JAMA Internal Medicine · doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2021.7382 · Cited by 141
Self-citationGazit, S., Shlezinger, R., Perez, G., Lotan, R., Peretz, A., Ben‐Tov, A., Herzel, E., Alapi, H., Cohen, D., Muhsen, K., et al. (2022) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/m21-4130 · Cited by 55
Self-citationmRNA-1273 Vaccine-elicited Neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron in Adolescents and Children
Girard, B., Tomassini, J. E., Deng, W., Maglinao, M., Zhou, H., Figueroa, A., Ghamloush, S. S., Montefiori, D. C., Das, R., & Pajon, R. (2022) · doi:10.1101/2022.01.24.22269666 · Cited by 23
Research works printed but not linked: 5
- 10.1056/NEJMOA2114114/SUPPL_FILE/NEJMOA2114114_DISCLOSURES.PDF · DOI
- 10.1056/NEJMOA2114583/SUPPL_FILE/NEJMOA2114583_DATA-SHARING.PDF · DOI
- 10.1056/NEJMOA2114228/SUPPL_FILE/NEJMOA2114228_DISCLOSURES.PDF · DOI
- 10.1038/s41467-020-20241-w · DOI · Paper page
- 10.1056/NEJMC2104974/SUPPL_FILE/NEJMC2104974_DISCLOSURES.PDF · DOI
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Effects of Previous Infection and Vaccination on Symptomatic Omicron Infections
Altarawneh, H. N., Chemaitelly, H., Ayoub, H. H., Tang, P., Hasan, M. R., Yassine, H. M., Al-Khatib, H. A., Smatti, M. K., Coyle, P., Al-Kanaani, Z., et al. (2022) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa2203965 · Cited by 551
Duration of mRNA vaccine protection against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 subvariants in Qatar
Chemaitelly, H., Ayoub, H. H., AlMukdad, S., Coyle, P., Tang, P., Yassine, H. M., Al-Khatib, H. A., Smatti, M. K., Hasan, M. R., Al-Kanaani, Z., et al. (2022) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-022-30895-3 · Cited by 228
Yu, W., Guo, Y., Zhang, S., Kong, Y., Shen, Z., & Zhang, J. (2022) · Journal of Medical Virology · doi:10.1002/jmv.28066 · Cited by 117
Evaluation of BNT162b2 Covid-19 Vaccine in Children Younger than 5 Years of Age
Muñoz, F. M., Sher, L., Sabharwal, C., Gurtman, A., Xu, X., Kitchin, N. R. E., Lockhart, S. P., Riesenberg, R. A., Sexter, J. M., Czajka, H., et al. (2023) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa2211031 · Cited by 106
Zelkoski, A. E., Lu, Z., Sukumar, G., Dalgard, C. L., Said, H., Alameh, M., Mitre, E. E. S., & Malloy, A. M. W. (2025) · npj Vaccines · doi:10.1038/s41541-025-01124-x · Cited by 117
Metadata
- Authors
- Patalon, T., Saciuk, Y., Peretz, A., Perez, G., Lurie, Y., Maor, Y., & Gazit, S.
- Affiliations
- Maccabi Healthcare Services (IL)
- Shaare Zedek Medical Center (IL)
- Corresponding author
- Patalon, Tal
- Venue
- Nature Communications
- Publisher
- openRxiv
- Published
- 2022-02-26
- Volume
- 13
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 3203-3203
- ISSN
- 2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC9184525
- OpenAlex
- W4281648214
- Cited by
- 143
- References
- 23
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 15 · 2024: 25 · 2023: 56 · 2022: 43
- FWCI
- 16.99
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- medRxiv (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Social Sciences › Health › Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Keywords
- BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine, COVID-19 vaccines, booster vaccination, waning vaccine effectiveness, Omicron variant, COVID-19 pandemic, test-negative case-control, PCR testing, duration of protection
- MeSH terms
- COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 Vaccines, BNT162 Vaccine, Humans, Retrospective Studies, RNA, Messenger
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
