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Conspiracy theories: Causes and cures
Open accessAbstract
Many millions of people hold conspiracy theories; they believe that powerful people have worked together in order to withhold the truth about some important practice or some terrible event. A recent example is the belief, widespread in some parts of the world, that the attacks of 9/11 were carried out not by Al Qaeda, but by Israel or the United States. Those who subscribe to conspiracy theories may create serious risks, including risks of violence, and the existence of such theories raises significant challenges for policy and law. The first challenge is to understand the mechanisms by which conspiracy theories prosper; the second challenge is to understand how such theories might be undermined. Such theories typically spread as a result of identifiable cognitive blunders, operating in conjunction with informational and reputational influences. A distinctive feature of conspiracy theories is their self-sealing quality. Conspiracy theorists are not likely to be persuaded by an attempt to dispel their theories; they may even characterize that very attempt as further proof of the conspiracy. Because those who hold conspiracy theories typically suffer from a crippled epistemology, in accordance with which it is rational to hold such theories, the best response consists in cognitive infiltration of extremist groups. Various policy dilemmas, such as the question whether it is better for government to rebut conspiracy theories or to ignore them, are explored in this light.
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“Similarly, different strategies for successful intervention may apply for people who hold strong anti-vaccine conspiracy beliefs than those who do not hold strong beliefs [44].”
From The Effects of Anti-Vaccine Conspiracy Theories on Vaccination Intentions (2014) · cites this paper as [44]
In the citing paper
“Conspiracist ideation is also typically immune to falsification because contradictory evidence (e.g., climate scientists being exonerated of accusations) can be accommodated by broadening the scope of the conspiracy (exonerations are a whitewash), often with considerable creativity [32].”
From The Role of Conspiracist Ideation and Worldviews in Predicting Rejection of Science (2013) · cites this paper as [32]
In the citing paper
“evidence against conspiracy theories is often construed as evidence for them, because the evidence is interpreted as arising from the conspiracy in question”
From The Role of Conspiracist Ideation and Worldviews in Predicting Rejection of Science (2013) · cites this paper as [32]
In the citing paper
“These general and robust findings help identify communicative means by which the motivated reasoning can be attenuated or circumvented [5], [32], [38], [50].”
From The Role of Conspiracist Ideation and Worldviews in Predicting Rejection of Science (2013) · cites this paper as [32]
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“…and Power 2020; Woolley and Howard 2016; 2019), rumors (Berinsky 2023), mis-perception (Flynn, Nyhan, and Rei fl er 2017), conspiratorial thinking (Sunstein and Vermeule 2009, 205; Uscinski et al. 2022), disinformation (Lewandowsky and Van der Linden 2021; Roozenbeek et al. 2022),…”
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Durably reducing conspiracy beliefs through dialogues with AI
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“As scholars like Warner and Neville-Shepard (2014) have indicated that debunking messages can be successful, and Sunstein and Vermeule (2009) have imagined ways the government might respond to especially harmful conspiracy theories, one has to wonder if a direct refutation of factual claims is the…”
BackgroundMcKenzie-McHarg, A., & Fredheim, R. (2017) · Historical Methods A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History · doi:10.1080/01615440.2017.1320616 · Cited by 57
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Duetz, J. C. M. (2022) · Erkenntnis · doi:10.1007/s10670-022-00620-z · Cited by 25
“…as the “typical result of the secularization of a religious superstition” (95), some philosophers (e.g., Cassam, 2019; Clarke, 2002; Mandik, 2007; Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009) have argued for outright dismissal of conspiracy theories as they are poorly evidenced, inconsistent, and incredible…”
Mikhaeil, C. A., & Baskerville, R. (2023) · Information Systems Journal · doi:10.1111/isj.12427 · Cited by 36
“Such a chamber reinforces confirmation bias, shuts down others, and reduces cognitive dissonance (Flaxman et al., 2016; Kitchens et al., 2020; Nickerson, 1998; Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009).”
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“They also tend to be what Sunstein and Vermeule (2009) refer to as “self-sealing,” that is, arising and finding justification within particular ideologically-motivated groups that in turn makes it difficult for outsiders to comprehend or challenge.”
BackgroundHow believing in brand conspiracies shapes relationships with brands
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“For instance, people who reject the link between HIV and AIDS generally believe that AIDS was created by the U.S. Government to control the African American population [26, 27].”
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“In ways consistent with those reported for small, tight-knit, self-segregating, CTsubscribing groups generally (e.g., Kahan, 2013; Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009), the ‘vibe’ is reinforced by the community’s overarching ‘alternative bent’ (Iris).”
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“…are regularly depicted either as passive, gullible victims of their (social media) echo chambers or as “wishful thinkers” who just believe what makes them feel good or what allows them to belong to a social group (Cassam, 2018; Cinelli et al., 2022; Douglas et al., 2017; Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009).”
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“Conspiracy theories are often characterized by attempts to uncover hidden causes behind significant social and political events or circumstances, through claims of secret plots involving influential actors (Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009).”
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“Conspiracy theories, in comparison, can be even more problematic as they prey on people’s emotional and cognitive biases (Douglas et al., 2019; Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009).”
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“Regardless of the channels, one thing is clear at least to some degree, audiences nowadays tend to selectively expose themselves to like-minded information, enhancing group polarization which in turn provides conspiracy theories with more fertile grounds to thrive (Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009).”
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Mampuys, R., & Brom, F. W. A. (2015) · Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Ethics · doi:10.1007/s10806-015-9564-9 · Cited by 21
What We Mean When We Say “Conspiracy Theory”
Walker, J. (2018) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780190844073.003.0003 · Cited by 23
Conspiracy theories in digital environments: Moving the research field forward
Zeng, J., Schäfer, M. S., & Oliveira, T. M. (2022) · Convergence: The International Journal of Research into New Media Technologies · doi:10.1177/13548565221117474 · Cited by 21
“Conspiracy theories, according to most established de fi nitions (Douglas et al., 2019; Keeley, 1999; Sunstein and Vermeule, 2009), are explanations of events or phenomena that challenge established accounts and instead refer to the machinations of powerful actors or secret societies.”
BackgroundBaurmann, M. C., & Cohnitz, D. (2021) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198863977.003.0016 · Cited by 20
Mapping the Narrative Ecosystem of Conspiracy Theories in Online Anti-vaccination Discussions
Introne, J. E., Korsunska, A., Krsova, L., & Zhang, Z. (2020) · International Conference on Social Media and Society (SMSociety) · doi:10.1145/3400806.3400828 · Cited by 21
“CTheories are thought to be problematic for various reasons: they provide a natural habitat for misinformation because they undercut trust in our traditional gatekeepers [2, 28], they help motivate extremist belief systems and acts [3, 38], they motivate disengagement with conventional modes of political activity [20]…”
BackgroundSağlam, E. (2021) · Journal of Southeast European and Black Sea Studies · doi:10.1080/14683857.2021.1909293 · Cited by 22
“Third, conspiratorial narratives seem to operate independently of the truth or evidence-based verification (Sunstein and Vermeule 2009), as they generally have a changing kernel and are, therefore, refutation-proof (Locke 2009; Nefes 2014; Altun and Erensü 2013).”
BackgroundFarhart, C. E., Fitz, E. B., Miller, J. M., & Saunders, K. L. (2023) · Research & Politics · doi:10.1177/20531680231193514 · Cited by 19
On the origin of conspiracy theories
Brooks, P. (2023) · Philosophical Studies · doi:10.1007/s11098-023-02040-3 · Cited by 20
“For example, they are prone to “magical thinking” (Wood & Douglass, 2018), have a “crippled epistemology” (Sunstein & Vermuele, 2009), or like feeling as though they’re in possession of arcane knowledge (Munro, Forthcoming).”
BackgroundGraham, T. (2024) · Media International Australia · doi:10.1177/1329878x241267756 · Cited by 19
“The fi rst are claims of hidden agendas and deception, asserting that powerful actors are hiding secret and malevolent agendas that are not in the public interest (Douglas et al., 2019; Hofstadter, 1964; Sunstein and Vermeule, 2009).”
Metadata
- Authors
- Sunstein, C. R., & Vermeule, A.
- Affiliations
- Harvard University (US)
- Venue
- Journal of Political Philosophy
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2009-04-13
- Volume
- 17
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 202-227
- ISSN
- 0963-8016 (ISSN-L)
- 1467-9760
- OpenAlex
- W2009369609
- Cited by
- 1,050
- References
- 7
- Citations by year
- 2026: 92 · 2025: 90 · 2024: 98 · 2023: 109 · 2022: 161 · 2021: 107 · 2020: 102 · 2019: 78 · 2018: 63 · 2017: 39 · 2016: 33 · 2015: 31 · 2014: 23 · 2013: 12 · 2012: 10
- FWCI
- 2.31
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- nrs.harvard.edu
- Locations
- Journal of Political Philosophy (publishedVersion)
- Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard (DASH) (Harvard University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Misinformation and Its Impacts
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Philosophy › Epistemology, Ethics, and Metaphysics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence
- Keywords
- conspiracy theories, 9/11 conspiracy theories, cognitive errors, epistemology, misinformation, extremist groups, countering disinformation, public policy
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