Conspiracy theories: Causes and cures

“We shall clarify the working definition of conspiracy theory here as being in line the characterisation of Sunstein et al [1] as “an effort to explain some event or practice by reference to the machinations of”

“Misinformation, as an important determinant of vaccine hesitancy, is often embedded in antivaccine conspiracy theories (CTs), that is, in the claims of secret plots by powerful actors, who attempt to conceal their role (Sunstein and Vermeule, 2009).”

“Conspiracy theories can undermine democratic conversation and potentially fuel violence [64].”

“One of the reasons for this parallel is this self-sealing property that they seem to have (Sunstein and Vermeule 2008; Cassam 2019).”

“For instance, people who reject the link between HIV and AIDS generally believe that AIDS was created by the U.S. Government to control the African American population [26, 27].”

“Our analysis of primary actors on Gab identified numerous “ dark influ-encers ” who have been suspended by Facebook and Twitter, many of whom are con-spiracy entrepreneurs (Sunstein and Vermeule 2009, 212) who profit from and monetize their visibility on social media.”

“As Sunstein and Vermeule (2009) suggest in a discussion of what they call ‘conspiracy cascades’, in the era of opinion polls belief in conspiracy theory can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, because respondents are less likely to reject completely ideas that they know considerable numbers of other…”

“In short, information from experts (Sunstein and Vermeule, 2009; Uscinski et al., 2016) and the government (Earnshaw et al.”

“…is the notion of factual accuracy, with conspiracy theories described as the “belief that covert, powerful forces are responsible for unexplained phenomena” that “typically (though not always) lack strong evidentiary support” (Nyhan et al., 2016, see also Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009).”

“The finding that users interact disproportionally with other users sharing their stance, aligns with previous findings that long time anti-vaccine users of social media tend to form tightly knit clusters which exhibit a high degree of in-group solidarity [46], and in which misinformation may thrive unquestioned [47].”

“(Sunstein and Vermeule, 2009: 219) To some readers, this may sound like something out of an old STASI manual but the authors fortunately provide the following consolation: Throughout, we assume a well-motivated government that aims to eliminate conspiracy theories, or draw their poison, if and only…”

“…typically discussed conspiracist ideation in the context of attribution errors (Clarke, 2002), the affective states produced by catastrophic events (Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009), or the biased assimilation of information and attitude polarization (McHoskey, 1995; see also Leman & Cinnirella, 2007).”

“Moreover, while exposure undoubtedly happens in small social networks of friends, family, and other close acquaintances, most salient conspiracy theories and conspiracy information exposure happens on the elite level (Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009).”

“…with the observation that “belief in conspiracy theories is strongly rooted in negative emotions” (van Prooijen & Douglas, 2018, p. 902; see also Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009),5 and echoes findings from prior social media research using Facebook and Reddit data which also found…”

“Conspiracy theories are attempts at offering alternative explanations to significant events by referencing to false or unsubstantiated claims (Sunstein and Vermeule 2009).”

“Starting Hofstadter (1965), many scholars have argued that conservative-leaning conspiracy theories are historically more salient and longstanding than liberal-learning ones (e.g., Barreto et al., 2011; Benkler et al., 2018; Iyengar et al., 2008; Nam et al., 2013; Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009).”

“Unverifiable rumors like conspiracy theories can sometimes be more persistent, divisive, and impactful (Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009).”

“For instance, Sunstein and Vermeule [1] define conspiracy theories as attempts to attribute outcomes to the scheming of powerful individuals, who attempt to conceal their involvement and activities.”

“Sunstein and Vermeule (2009) trace conspiracy beliefs to information processing deficiencies, Elster (1998) discusses communication problems, Osmundsen and colleagues (2021) suggest political motives are prominent, and Uscinski and Parent (2014) argue that “conspiracy theories are for losers” of…”

“Emotional engagement helps to explain phenomena such as moral panics about deviant behavior [26, 61].”

“Second, conspiracy theories tend to remain confined to their communities (Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009) and not to spread haphazardly from person to person through social media (DeWitt et al., 2018).”

“…theories is associated with anger and helplessness (Butler, Koopman, and Zimbardo 1995), social isolation and closed as opposed to open societies (Sunstein and Vermeule 2009); existential threat (Newheiser, Farias, and Tausch 2011), lack of analytic thinking (Swami et al. 2014) and need for…”

“…debunking efforts share similar assumptions: people have (for various reasons) no access to quality information and suffer as such from a ‘crippled epistemology’ (Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009), but if we show people the right information instead, then they will accept established (scientific) truths.”

“Given that millions of people subscribe to these potentially harmful viewpoints (Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009), there needs to be a better understanding of the psychological mechanisms underlying why people believe in conspiracy theories.”

“debunking conspiracy theories is difficult not least because conspiratorial thinking: (i) has a “self-sealing nature”—the tendency to reject contrary evidence or refutation attempts as confirmation of the existence of an alleged nefarious plot; and (ii) thrives on the abundance of disconfirming evidence and the lack c…”

“Furthermore, in general emotions contribute to the spreading of conspiracies (Samory and Mitra, 2018; Sunstein and Vermeule, 2009).”

“Despite the proliferation of data, the rise of conspiracy theories claiming to illuminate the hidden workings of power suggests that people find the activities of those in power less and less transparent (Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009).”

“Conspiracy theories aim to explain significant social or political events such as the refugee crisis or political practices as schemed by powerful elites who are trying to conceal their leading role, at least until they reach their goals (Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009).”

“Given that conspiracy theorists believe in powerful malevolent individuals (Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009) and have low trust in government and science (Lamberty & Imhoff, 2018), it was plausible to assume that advice from often villainised sources such as politicians and ‘big pharma’ could result in…”

“” American Journal of Political Science 58(4): 952– 966.”

“Supporters of conspiracy theories are hard-to-reach populations, given the distinctive self-sealing quality of their communities (Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009) and their high distrust of scientific institutions (Comu-nello, Mulargia, & Parisi, 2017).”

“They have been associated with group polarisation (Sunstein and Vermeule, 2009).”

“First, a conspiracy can recreate reality and shift the balance of power by creating a story that aligns with the adherent’s worldview (Nefes 2014; Sunstein and Vermeule 2009).”

“A line of research follows Hofstadter’s labelling of the biased, value-laden and paranoid character of conspiracy theories as a political pathology (Aaronovitch, 2009; Ben-Itto, 2005; Cohn, 1970; Pipes, 1997; Robins and Post, 1997; Sunstein and Vermeule, 2009).”

“(Academic) criticasters of conspiracy theorists may find this eclecticism problematic: they deplore how such ‘charlatans’ unsettle the boundaries between fact and fiction and warn for the societal ramifications of such relativism (e.g. Barkun, 2006; Pipes, 1997; Sunstein and Vermeule, 2009).”

“…to an alternative ecosystem, in which information is produced by “dark participants” (Zeng & Schäfer, 2021, p. 1338) and “conspiracy entrepreneurs” (Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009, p. 212), shared and amplified by ordinary users, and then posted on the mainstream platforms to recruit new members.”

“This is defined as an attempt to normalize explanations of a significant political or social event as a secret plot by influential individuals or organizations (Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009).”

“Despite this, there remains no single, commonly recognised definition of conspiracy (Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009).”

“4, people’s response to misinformation is influenced by different factors, including the social context in which they encounter misinformation and the ways others within a community engage with and respond to misinformation [70, 144, 195, 231].”

“These emphasise secrecy, subterfuge, and manipulation, which manifest as the conviction that powerful groups or collectives clandestinely plan and implement strategies with the intention of achieving malevolent goals (Bale, 2007; Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009).”

“The extant literature on the relationship between government distrust and belief in conspiracy theories points to the idea that government guidelines are not viewed as an attempt to protect the public by conspiracy theory advocates, but rather, an attempt to restrict individual freedoms and liberties [29].”

“…that can provide independent information and fact-checking means not only that rumors and speculation are particularly prevalent (Kapferer, 1990; Sunstein & Vermeule, 2009), but also that the authorities are more tempted to use the “fake news” label to suppress discordant voices, criticism, or…”

“Finally, we are able to derive the predictive posterior probability distribution of the number of posts exceeding a certain threshold of shares over a finite interval of time.”

“More prosaically, some harmful speech happens in communicative spaces that are simply hard to access and engage with (Sunstein and Vermeule 2009).”

“Although manipulation, rumours or conspiracy theories have run through the history of mankind (Sunstein and Vermeule 2009; Cooke 2017; Tandoc, Lim, and Ling 2018), recent political events (i.e., the Brexit referendum, the 2016 US Presidential Election) and particularly the COVID-19 pandemic and its…”

“…as such’, ‘whereby government agents or their allies [. . .] will undermine the crippled epistemology of believers by planting doubts about the theories and stylised facts that circulate within such groups, thereby introducing beneficial cognitive diversity’ (Sunstein and Vermeule, 2009: 219).”

“Specifically, we will discuss its relation to the notion of echo chamber (Sunstein, 2001; Sunstein and Vermeule 2009) and we will argue that both insufficiently provide explanations for the phenomena they aim to account for since there is a lack of empirical evidence that supports them and, they…”

“Zamna is a conspiracy influencer who is entrepreneurial, using disinformation to gain followers and promote his brand (Vermeule & Sunstein, 2009).”