Cited by 300Child and Adolescent Psychosocial and Emotional DevelopmentPersonality Disorders and PsychopathologyMental Health Research Topics

Subthreshold conditions as precursors for full syndrome disorders: a 15‐year longitudinal study of multiple diagnostic classes

Open access
Shankman, Stewart A., Lewinsohn, Peter M., Klein, Daniel N., Small, Jason W., Seeley, John R., Altman, Sarah E.·2009·Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry

Abstract

Background: There has been increasing interest in the distinction between subthreshold and full syndrome disorders and specifically whether subthreshold conditions escalate or predict the onset of full syndrome disorders over time. Most of these studies, however, examined whether a single subthreshold condition escalates into the full syndrome form of that disorder. Equally important, though, is whether subthreshold conditions are likely to develop other full syndrome disorders and whether these associations are maintained after adjusting for comorbidity. Methods: A 15‐year longitudinal study of subthreshold psychiatric conditions was conducted with 1,505 community‐drawn young adults. We examined whether 1) subthreshold major depression, bipolar, anxiety disorders, alcohol use, substance use, conduct disorder and/or ADHD were precursors for the corresponding (homotypic) full syndrome disorder; 2) subthreshold conditions were precursors for other (heterotypic) full syndrome disorders; and 3) these homotypic and heterotypic precursors persisted after adjusting for comorbidity. Results: Subthreshold major depression, anxiety, alcohol use, substance use, and conduct all escalated into their corresponding full syndrome and nearly all homotypic developments were maintained after adjusting for comorbid subthreshold and full syndrome conditions. Many heterotypic associations were also observed and most remained after controlling for comorbidity, particularly among externalizing disorders (e.g., alcohol, substance, conduct/antisocial personality disorder). Conclusions: Many subthreshold conditions have predictive validity as they may represent precursors for full syndrome disorders. Alternatively, dimensional conceptualizations of psychopathology which include these more minor conditions may yield greater validity. Subthreshold conditions may represent good targets for preventive interventions.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1111/j.1469-7610.2009.02117.x

Cites

43 of 43 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

0 of 13 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged

  • Findingown data

    Apart from subthreshold anxiety, every homotypic escalation remained significant after adjustment for comorbid subthreshold and full syndrome conditions.

    “With the exception of subthreshold anxiety, all of the homotypic escalations from Table 2 remained significant after adjusting for comorbidity.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    Externalizing subthreshold conditions generally did not predict later internalizing disorders (depression and anxiety).

    “These disorders often predicted the development of the others, were occasionally bidirectional (subthreshold substance predicted FS alcohol and subthreshold alcohol predicted FS substance), and did not predict the development of internalizing disorders (depression and anxiety).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    After comorbidity adjustment, subthreshold alcohol use no longer predicted full syndrome substance use disorder.

    “subthreshold alcohol no longer predicting FS substance use disorder”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingown data

    Subthreshold conduct disorder predicted later full syndrome bipolar, anxiety, alcohol use, and substance use disorders.

    “Those with subthreshold conduct developed FS bipolar, anxiety, alcohol use, and substance use disorders.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    The only heterotypic pathways crossing between internalizing and externalizing disorders were subthreshold conduct disorder predicting full syndrome bipolar and anxiety.

    “The findings that subthreshold conduct disorder predicted FS bipolar and FS anxiety were the only heterotypic developments that ‘crossed’ between internalizing and externalizing disorders.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims. 13
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 9
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Subthreshold depression and subthreshold anxiety did not predict the full syndrome form of the other condition.

    “Even before adjusting for comorbidity, subthreshold depression and anxiety did not predict the FS version of the other.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Most heterotypic associations seen for subthreshold conditions also appeared for full syndrome conditions, but full syndrome disorders were linked to more follow-up conditions.

    “The majority of the heterotypic associations observed for subthreshold conditions were also found for FS conditions. However, FS disorders were associated with more conditions at follow-up than subthreshold conditions.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Subthreshold substance use predicted later full syndrome alcohol use disorder and showed trends for bipolar and anxiety disorders.

    “Those with subthreshold substance developed FS alcohol use disorders and a trend for bipolar and anxiety disorders.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Subthreshold alcohol use predicted later full syndrome substance use disorder and conduct disorder/ASPD.

    “Those with subthreshold alcohol developed FS substance use disorder and conduct disorder/ASPD.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Subthreshold ADHD predicted later full syndrome alcohol and substance use disorders, and conduct disorder/ASPD.

    “Those with subthreshold ADHD developed FS alcohol and substance use disorders, and conduct disorder/ASPD.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Numerous heterotypic associations were found, and most persisted after comorbidity control, especially for externalizing disorders.

    “Many heterotypic associations were also observed and most remained after controlling for comorbidity, particularly among externalizing disorders”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Each subthreshold externalizing condition carries both unique and shared predictive validity.

    “suggesting that each subthreshold externalizing condition has unique, as well as shared predictive validity.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductcitation

    The proportional hazards assumption was tested by adding a Time X Predictor interaction term to each Cox model.

    “The proportional hazards assumption was tested by including a Time X Predictor interaction term in each Cox model”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    Interrater reliability data for T1 subthreshold conditions could not be computed.

    “Data to compute interrater reliabilities for T1 subthreshold conditions were not available.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    Subthreshold conditions have substantial predictive power for both homotypic and heterotypic full syndrome outcomes.

    “In sum, our results suggest that subthreshold conditions have both important homotypic and heterotypic predictive power.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    Participants were weighted by their selection probability for the third assessment, and standard errors were adjusted in inferential tests.

    “participants were weighted by their probability of selection for T3 (standard errors were adjusted in inferential statistics).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductreasoning

    Some findings, especially heterotypic associations, may reflect Type I error due to multiple comparisons and need replication.

    “due to the multiple comparisons, some findings (particularly some of the heterotypic associations), may have been due to a Type I error and thus require replication.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Subthreshold conditions are common and linked to functional impairment.

    “subthreshold conditions are common (Lewinsohn, Shankman, Gau & Klein, 2004), and are associated with functional impairment (Kessler, Zhao, Blazer, & Swartz, 1997)”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Lewinsohn, Shankman, Gau & Klein, 2004

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites Kessler, Zhao, Blazer, & Swartz, 1997

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Subthreshold depressive conditions are associated with significant impairment and greater treatment use.

    “Subthreshold depressive conditions, such as minor depression or Brief Recurrent Depression, have been associated with significant impairment (Gotlib, Lewinsohn, & Seeley, 1995; Kessler et al., 1997), and increased treatment utilization (Judd, Paulus, Wells & Rapaport, 1996).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Gotlib, Lewinsohn, & Seeley, 1995; Kessler et al., 1997

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites Judd, Paulus, Wells & Rapaport, 1996

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    Cox models were adjusted for gender and for comorbid conditions at T1.

    “Cox models were conducted in two sets – 1) adjusting for gender (as gender related to the predictor and the outcome) and 2) adjusting for gender and comorbid conditions at T1.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Telephone interviews generally produce results comparable to face-to-face interviews.

    “Interviews at T3 and T4 were conducted by telephone, which generally yields comparable results to face-to-face interviews”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Rohde, Lewinsohn, & Seeley, 1997

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    Baseline age was not adjusted for because age differences were small.

    “Because of the small differences in ages, we did not adjust for baseline age in the Cox models below.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Prior work has shown that subthreshold depression, bipolar disorder, and anxiety disorder escalate into full syndrome conditions over time.

    “Subthreshold depression (Fergusson, Horwood, Ridder & Beautrais, 2005; Lewinsohn et al., 2000a) bipolar disorder (Lewinsohn et al, 2000b; Regeer et al., 2006) and anxiety disorder (Merikangas et al., 2003) have been shown to escalate into the FS condition over time.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Fergusson, Horwood, Ridder & Beautrais, 2005; Lewinsohn et al., 2000a

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites Lewinsohn et al, 2000b; Regeer et al., 2006

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites Merikangas et al., 2003

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductnone given

    The definitions used for subthreshold conditions were somewhat arbitrary.

    “although our definitions of subthreshold conditions were consistent with the literature, they are admittedly somewhat arbitrary.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Subthreshold and full syndrome conditions show substantial comorbidity and familial co-aggregation.

    “there is substantial comorbidity and familial co-aggregation among subthreshold and FS conditions”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Angst, Merikangas & Preisig, 1997; Lewinsohn et al., 2004; Shankman et al., 2008

      Not checked in the free run.

20 of 20

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Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

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Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • Key points misstate the adjusted anxiety result

    Major

    The key points say subthreshold anxiety predicted its full-syndrome counterpart after adjustment for comorbidity, but the results identify anxiety as the exception that did not remain significant.

  • Externalizing summary overlooks the conduct-to-anxiety finding

    Minor

    The discussion says externalizing conditions did not predict internalizing disorders, whereas the results report that subthreshold conduct predicted full-syndrome anxiety before adjustment for comorbidity.

2 of 2

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

1 of the 44 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Research works printed but not linked: 1

  1. First M.B., 1996, Structured Clinical Interview for DSM‐IV Axis I Disorders‐Non‐Patient Edition

Cited by

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Authors
Shankman, S. A., Lewinsohn, P. M., Klein, D. N., Small, J. W., Seeley, J. R., & Altman, S. E.
Affiliations
  • University of Illinois Chicago (US)
  • Oregon Research Institute (US)
Corresponding author
Shankman, Stewart A.
Venue
Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry
Publisher
Wiley
Published
2009-11-05
Volume
50
Issue
12
Pages
1485-1494
ISSN
  • 0021-9630 (ISSN-L)
  • 1469-7610
OpenAlex
W1974681461
Cited by
300
References
44
Citations by year
2026: 9 · 2025: 11 · 2024: 14 · 2023: 18 · 2022: 23 · 2021: 23 · 2020: 25 · 2019: 23 · 2018: 14 · 2017: 11 · 2016: 20 · 2015: 19 · 2014: 20 · 2013: 20 · 2012: 18
FWCI
16.78
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
Funders
National Institute of Mental Health (MH 50522, R01MH066023, R01MH050522)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Child and Adolescent Psychosocial and Emotional Development
  • Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Personality Disorders and Psychopathology
  • Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Mental Health Research Topics
Keywords
alcohol consumption, substance use, conduct disorder, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, antisocial personality disorder, comorbidities, dimensional models of psychopathology, young adults, predictive validity, preventive interventions
MeSH terms
Adolescent, Adult, Attention Deficit Disorder with Hyperactivity, Mental Disorders, Major Depressive Disorder, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Male, Severity of Illness Index, Syndrome, Comorbidity, Conduct Disorder, Substance-Related Disorders, Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Young Adult

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