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The global distribution of ecosystems in a world without fire
Abstract
This paper is the first global study of the extent to which fire determines global vegetation patterns by preventing ecosystems from achieving the potential height, biomass and dominant functional types expected under the ambient climate (climate potential). To determine climate potential, we simulated vegetation without fire using a dynamic global-vegetation model. Model results were tested against fire exclusion studies from different parts of the world. Simulated dominant growth forms and tree cover were compared with satellite-derived land- and tree-cover maps. Simulations were generally consistent with results of fire exclusion studies in southern Africa and elsewhere. Comparison of global 'fire off' simulations with landcover and treecover maps show that vast areas of humid C(4) grasslands and savannas, especially in South America and Africa, have the climate potential to form forests. These are the most frequently burnt ecosystems in the world. Without fire, closed forests would double from 27% to 56% of vegetated grid cells, mostly at the expense of C(4) plants but also of C(3) shrubs and grasses in cooler climates. C(4) grasses began spreading 6-8 Ma, long before human influence on fire regimes. Our results suggest that fire was a major factor in their spread into forested regions, splitting biotas into fire tolerant and intolerant taxa.
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“Wildfires are essential to ecosystem function across the globe [1], influencing a wide spectrum of ecosystem components and natural processes [2], among which is the hydrological cycle.”
From A Global Index for Mapping the Exposure of Water Resources to Wildfire (2016) · cites this paper as [1]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Bond, W. J., Woodward, F. I., & Midgley, G. F.
- Affiliations
- University of Cape Town (ZA)
- University of Sheffield (GB)
- Conservation International (US)
- Venue
- New Phytologist
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2004-11-12
- Volume
- 165
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 525-538
- ISSN
- 0028-646X (ISSN-L)
- 1469-8137
- OpenAlex
- W2110659496
- Cited by
- 1,942
- References
- 118
- Citations by year
- 2026: 58 · 2025: 94 · 2024: 82 · 2023: 101 · 2022: 107 · 2021: 121 · 2020: 92 · 2019: 115 · 2018: 114 · 2017: 112 · 2016: 112 · 2015: 119 · 2014: 110 · 2013: 118 · 2012: 95
- FWCI
- 32.34
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- New Phytologist (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Andrew W. Mellon Foundation
- National Research Foundation
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
- Keywords
- fire, fire suppression, dynamic global vegetation models, tree cover, C4 grasslands, savanna, forest expansion, fire tolerance
- MeSH terms
- Biological Evolution, Fires, Models, Biological, Population Dynamics, Ecosystem, Plant Physiological Phenomena, Biomass
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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