On the quantitative definition of risk
Abstract
A quantitative definition of risk is suggested in terms of the idea of a “set of triplets”. The definition is extended to include uncertainty and completeness, and the use of Bayes' theorem is described in this connection. The definition is used to discuss the notions of “relative risk”, “relativity of risk”, and “acceptability of risk”.
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“Some areas seem to have found the answer a long time ago, for instance the nuclear industry, which has been founded on the Kaplan and Garrick (1981) definition (the triplet scenarios, consequences and probabilities) for more than three decades; others acknowledge the need for further developments,…”
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“Risk assessment answers the following three questions (Kaplan and Garrick, 1981): • What can go wrong?”
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- Authors
- Kaplan, S., & Garrick, B. J.
- Affiliations
- Kaplan (United States) (US)
- Venue
- Risk Analysis
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 1981-03
- Volume
- 1
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 11-27
- ISSN
- 0272-4332 (ISSN-L)
- 1539-6924
- OpenAlex
- W2147704565
- Cited by
- 3,103
- References
- 12
- Citations by year
- 2026: 127 · 2025: 117 · 2024: 125 · 2023: 121 · 2022: 122 · 2021: 163 · 2020: 160 · 2019: 136 · 2018: 149 · 2017: 163 · 2016: 135 · 2015: 173 · 2014: 137 · 2013: 125 · 2012: 154
- FWCI
- 23.98
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Risk Analysis (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Risk and Safety Analysis
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Risk Perception and Management
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Keywords
- uncertainty, completeness, Bayes' theorem, relative risk
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