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Re‐theorizing Family Demographics
Open accessAbstract
Two dominant theories within family research foresee a long‐term decline in marriage, fertility, and partner stability. They also assume that this “less‐family” scenario will be spearheaded by higher‐educated strata. Trends in the latter half of the twentieth century seemed to provide ample support for both predictions. However, recent signs of change in family behavior raise doubts about their continued validity. In a number of countries we see a halt to, and even reversal of, fertility decline and of couple instability. In parallel, we observe a reversal of the social gradient on both dimensions. Applying a multiple equilibrium framework, we propose a theoretical framework that helps explain both the phase of marital and fertility decline and the subsequent recovery. We focus especially on the endogenous dynamics of the process, which, we argue, depend on the conditions that favor rapid diffusion. Our core argument is that the turnaround is driven by the diffusion of gender‐egalitarian norms.
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“Theories on gender and fertility development have suggested a decline in fertility with women’s rising participation in education and employment, which would make women dually burdened with paid work and care of their families.”
From Education, Gender, and Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries (2019) · cites this paper as Esping-Andersen and Billari 2015
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“All of these theories imply that greater gender equity within the family will have the strongest fertility-promoting effect among highly educated women because of their greater opportunity costs when their involvement in paid work is restricted.”
From Education, Gender, and Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries (2019) · cites this paper as Esping-Andersen and Billari 2015
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
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“Many scholars argue that these gendered associations are weakening or even reversing. This is mostly attributed to changing gender relations in the public and private spheres (McDonald 2000; Esping-Andersen and Billari 2015; Goldscheider et al. 2015; Anderson and Kohler 2015).”
From Education, Gender, and Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries (2019) · cites this paper as Esping-Andersen and Billari 2015
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“Scholars further argue that if men take more caring responsibilities and share family work more equally with their partners, fertility levels may be maintained or even increase (McDonald 2000; Neyer et al. 2013; Esping-Andersen and Billari 2015; Goldscheider et al. 2015; Anderson and Kohler 2015).”
From Education, Gender, and Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries (2019) · cites this paper as Esping-Andersen and Billari 2015
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“Taking evidence from the Nordic and Central European contexts to-”
From Can Policies Stall the Fertility Fall? A Systematic Review of the (Quasi‐) Experimental Literature (2021) · cites this paper as Esping-Andersen and Billari 2015
In the citing paper
“major perspectives in family demography – and most notably the Gender Revolution (Goldscheider, Bernhardt, and Lappegård 2015 )/Multiple Equilibrium framework (Esping-Andersen and Billari 2015 ) – suggest, rather, a fertility rebound.”
From A reflection on economic uncertainty and fertility in Europe: The Narrative Framework (2020) · cites this paper as Esping-Andersen and Billari 2015
In the citing paper
“Esping-Andersen and Billari ( 2015 ) recently suggested that trends toward (lowest-)low fertility would be transitory, and that fertility rates would come back to levels close to the replacement threshold especially in countries where gender equality gains normative status.”
From A reflection on economic uncertainty and fertility in Europe: The Narrative Framework (2020) · cites this paper as Esping-Andersen and Billari 2015
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Metadata
- Authors
- Esping‐Andersen, G., & Billari, F. C.
- Affiliations
- Universitat Pompeu Fabra (ES)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Venue
- Population and Development Review
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2015-03
- Volume
- 41
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 1-31
- ISSN
- 0098-7921 (ISSN-L)
- 1728-4457
- OpenAlex
- W2026143456
- Cited by
- 763
- References
- 101
- Citations by year
- 2026: 59 · 2025: 65 · 2024: 69 · 2023: 83 · 2022: 73 · 2021: 79 · 2020: 93 · 2019: 69 · 2018: 67 · 2017: 42 · 2016: 50 · 2015: 10
- FWCI
- 143.01
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Population and Development Review (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Archivio istituzionale della Ricerca - Bocconi (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Demography › Family Dynamics and Relationships
- Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Gender, Labor, and Family Dynamics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Intergenerational and Educational Inequality Studies
- Keywords
- family demographics, fertility decline, marriage decline, social gradient, norm diffusion, fertility restoration, endogenous dynamics
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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