The DOI matches its Crossref record; 100 of the 101 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Re‐theorizing Family Demographics
Open accessAbstract
Two dominant theories within family research foresee a long‐term decline in marriage, fertility, and partner stability. They also assume that this “less‐family” scenario will be spearheaded by higher‐educated strata. Trends in the latter half of the twentieth century seemed to provide ample support for both predictions. However, recent signs of change in family behavior raise doubts about their continued validity. In a number of countries we see a halt to, and even reversal of, fertility decline and of couple instability. In parallel, we observe a reversal of the social gradient on both dimensions. Applying a multiple equilibrium framework, we propose a theoretical framework that helps explain both the phase of marital and fertility decline and the subsequent recovery. We focus especially on the endogenous dynamics of the process, which, we argue, depend on the conditions that favor rapid diffusion. Our core argument is that the turnaround is driven by the diffusion of gender‐egalitarian norms.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“Theories on gender and fertility development have suggested a decline in fertility with women’s rising participation in education and employment, which would make women dually burdened with paid work and care of their families.”
From Education, Gender, and Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries (2019) · cites this paper as Esping-Andersen and Billari 2015
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“All of these theories imply that greater gender equity within the family will have the strongest fertility-promoting effect among highly educated women because of their greater opportunity costs when their involvement in paid work is restricted.”
From Education, Gender, and Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries (2019) · cites this paper as Esping-Andersen and Billari 2015
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“Many scholars argue that these gendered associations are weakening or even reversing. This is mostly attributed to changing gender relations in the public and private spheres (McDonald 2000; Esping-Andersen and Billari 2015; Goldscheider et al. 2015; Anderson and Kohler 2015).”
From Education, Gender, and Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries (2019) · cites this paper as Esping-Andersen and Billari 2015
The cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“Scholars further argue that if men take more caring responsibilities and share family work more equally with their partners, fertility levels may be maintained or even increase (McDonald 2000; Neyer et al. 2013; Esping-Andersen and Billari 2015; Goldscheider et al. 2015; Anderson and Kohler 2015).”
From Education, Gender, and Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries (2019) · cites this paper as Esping-Andersen and Billari 2015
The cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“Taking evidence from the Nordic and Central European contexts to-”
From Can Policies Stall the Fertility Fall? A Systematic Review of the (Quasi‐) Experimental Literature (2021) · cites this paper as Esping-Andersen and Billari 2015
In the citing paper
“major perspectives in family demography – and most notably the Gender Revolution (Goldscheider, Bernhardt, and Lappegård 2015 )/Multiple Equilibrium framework (Esping-Andersen and Billari 2015 ) – suggest, rather, a fertility rebound.”
From A reflection on economic uncertainty and fertility in Europe: The Narrative Framework (2020) · cites this paper as Esping-Andersen and Billari 2015
In the citing paper
“Esping-Andersen and Billari ( 2015 ) recently suggested that trends toward (lowest-)low fertility would be transitory, and that fertility rates would come back to levels close to the replacement threshold especially in countries where gender equality gains normative status.”
From A reflection on economic uncertainty and fertility in Europe: The Narrative Framework (2020) · cites this paper as Esping-Andersen and Billari 2015
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
Gamst, F. C. (1991) · Anthropology of Work Review · doi:10.1525/awr.1991.12.3.19 · Cited by 8,036
Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem
Manski, C. F. (1993) · The Review of Economic Studies · doi:10.2307/2298123 · Cited by 6,209
American Apartheid: Segregation and the Making of the Underclass.
Fernandez, R. M., Massey, D. S., & Denton, N. A. (1993) · Contemporary Sociology A Journal of Reviews · doi:10.2307/2074502 · Cited by 6,191
Noble, C. (1988) · American Political Science Review · doi:10.2307/1961794 · Cited by 6,176
The Truly Disadvantaged: The Inner City, The Underclass, and Public Policy.
Watson, B. C., & Wilson, W. J. (1988) · The Journal of Negro Education · doi:10.2307/2295455 · Cited by 6,018
Becker, G. S. (1973) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/260084 · Cited by 3,573
An Economic Analysis of FertilityPreprint
Becker, G. S. (1960) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 1,826
The Unfolding Story of the Second Demographic Transition
Lesthaeghe, R. (2010) · Population and Development Review · doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2010.00328.x · Cited by 1,794
An Economic Analysis of Marital Instability
Becker, G. S., Landes, E. M., & Michael, R. T. (1977) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/260631 · Cited by 1,715
Diffusion in Organizations and Social Movements: From Hybrid Corn to Poison Pills
Strang, D., & Soule, S. A. (1998) · Annual Review of Sociology · doi:10.1146/annurev.soc.24.1.265 · Cited by 1,698
Research works printed but not linked: 12
- Becker Gary S., 1981, A Treatise on the Family
- 10.1177/000312249906400302 · DOI
- Creighton Mathew, 2013, The Low Fertility Syndrome
- Ellwood David T., 2004, Social Inequality, 3
- Esping‐Andersen Gøsta., 2009, The Incomplete Revolution: Adapting Welfare States to Women's New Roles
- Goode William J., 1962, Marital satisfaction and instability: A cross‐cultural class analysis of divorce rates, International Social Science Journal, 14, 544
- Gornick Janet C., 1998, Public policy and the employment of mothers: A cross‐national study, Social Sciences Quarterly, 79, 35
- Hazan Moshe, 2011, CEPR Discussion Paper 8590
- Jäntti Markus, 2006, IZA Discussion Paper No. 1938
- Neyer Gerda, 2011, Stockholm Research Reports in Demography, 9
- Raymo James M., 2012, CDE Working Paper No. 2012–01
- Scott J., 2006, Globalization, Value Changes and Generations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Items 701–765 of 765
Gender Role Attitudes and Transition to Marriage and Marital Parenthood in JapanPreprint
Mugiyama, R. (2025) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-7995232/v1
Love in a Time of Globalization: Intimacy Re-imagined Across Cultural Flows
Trask, B. S. (2025) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-94512-0_30
Who Stays Single? A Longitudinal and Global Investigation Using WVS Data
Homocianu, D. (2025) · Histories · doi:10.3390/histories5040064
Women’s career mobility and childbearing in Sweden. Evidence of a tradeoff?
Billingsley, S. (2018) · Figshare · doi:10.17045/sthlmuni.5928994
Additional file 1 of Formal childcare services and fertility: the case of Italy
Scherer, S., Pavolini, E., & Brini, E. (2024) · Figshare · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.26657254
Educated to Be Mothers? School Reform and Demographic BacklashPreprint
Lax-Martinez, G., Moglie, M. L., & Sandi, M. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5737802
Bozçelik, E. E., Tuncay, İ., & Kabataş, D. (2025) · UMAY SANAT VE SOSYAL BİLİMLER DERGİSİ · doi:10.29228/umaydergisi.14
Yoo, S. H. (2026) · Demographic Research · doi:10.4054/demres.2026.54.3
da Silva, I. A., Mendes, I. D. O., Serra, A. D. C. S., & de Almeida, J. J. N. (2025) · Cadernos de Educação Tecnologia e Sociedade · doi:10.14571/brajets.v18.n4.1282-1292
Fan, D. (2026) · International Journal of Comparative Sociology · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-8501837/v1
Friedrich, C., & Milewski, N. (2026) · Genus · doi:10.1186/s41118-025-00280-1
Perspectives on the future: combining work and family care in 2040
van der Lippe, T., Yerkes, M. A., Roeters, A., Treas, J., Hertog, E., Sayer, L. C., & Hewitt, B. A. (2026) · Community Work & Family · doi:10.1080/13668803.2025.2610240
Wu, C. (2026) · Family Relations · doi:10.1111/fare.70105
Marriage, Wealth, and the Spread of Cohabitation in Canada
Pugliese, M. (2026) · British Journal of Sociology · doi:10.1111/1468-4446.70089
Jack, T. (2026) · Humanities and Social Sciences Communications · doi:10.1057/s41599-026-06674-6
Dang, Y. (2026) · Frontiers in Sociology · doi:10.3389/fsoc.2026.1617449
Maleva, T., Е.А., S., & Макаренцева, А. (2026) · Economic Policy · doi:10.18288/1994-5124-2026-1-6-31
Fidanovski, K. (2026) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-9001774/v1
Türkiye’de Yumurta Dondurma Politikası: Karşılaştırmalı Perspektiften Eleştirel Bir Değerlendirme
Kılıç, A. (2023) · Mülkiye Dergisi · doi:10.25064/mulkiye.1186930
HUMAN CAPITAL ACCUMULATION AND SUB-REPLACEMENT FERTILITY IN AN EU-ADJACENT ECONOMY
Değirmenci, S., & Özkan-Değirmenci, H. Ö. (2026) · JOURNAL OF EUROPEAN ECONOMY · doi:10.35774/jee2026.01.027
Bleha, B., & Ďurček, P. (2026) · Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy · doi:10.1007/s12061-026-09849-5
Malley, M. E., Gibbons, J. L., Congress, E. P., & Gielen, U. P. (2026) · Emerald Group Publishing Limited eBooks · doi:10.1108/978-1-80686-693-920261019
Stability and change in children's residence arrangements after parental separation
Holt, T., Larsen, L., Meyer, D. R., & Smyth, B. (2026) · Family Relations · doi:10.1111/fare.70204
McErlean, K. (2026) · Social Forces · doi:10.1093/sf/soag046
Introduction to the Genus thematic series: The Inequality of uncertainty
Comolli, C. L., & Albertini, M. (2026) · Genus · doi:10.1186/s41118-026-00290-7
Hemerijck, A. C., & Bokhorst, D. (2026) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198971481.003.0001
Welfare Performance in a Life-Course Perspective for the Twenty-First Century
Fernandes, D., & Hemerijck, A. C. (2026) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198971481.003.0004
Demographic processes constrain global growth in gender egalitarianism
Akaliyski, P., Bowen, C. E., Gehrig, S., & Skirbekk, V. (2026) · PNAS Nexus · doi:10.1093/pnasnexus/pgag133
Inquillo, J. P. P. (2026) · Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Económico · doi:10.35319/lajed.202645616
Islam, Institutions, and Fertility
Kumo, K., & Perugini, C. (2026) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-57365-6_251-1
Gender Regimes and the Perceived Costs of Children: Does Gender Equality Favor Happier Parents?
Delès, R. (2026) · Sociological Research Online · doi:10.1177/13607804261439043
Socio-Economic Correlates of the Spatial Pattern of Divorce in China, 2000–2020
Wang, X., Liao, T. F., Tang, T., & Gao, X. (2026) · Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy · doi:10.1007/s12061-026-09911-2
Mediterranean perspectives: The recent evolution of family structures in Southern European countries
Kontogiannis, G., Ρόντος, Κ., Salvati, L., & Antonoglou, D. (2026) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-443-45332-8.00017-6
Kelmendi, K., Fetahu, D., & Bajgora, S. (2026) · Family Relations · doi:10.1111/fare.70252
Fallesen, P., Dommermuth, L., Hellstrand, J., Simonsen, E. A. L., & Loft, L. T. G. (2026) · Vienna Yearbook of Population Research · doi:10.1553/p-m677-8z27
Reingewertz, Y., & Zablotsky, A. (2026) · Journal of Family Issues · doi:10.1177/0192513x261465797
Having it All? Broadband Technology and the Growing Divide Between High and Low-Skilled WomenPreprint
Bøckmann, E., & Strøm, M. (2026) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.7048507
Krawiec, G. (2026) · Problemy Opiekuńczo-Wychowawcze · doi:10.71358/pow.3068
Ciborek, A., Chęcińska-Maciejewska, Z., Nowak, A., & Krauss, H. (2026) · Frontiers in Public Health · doi:10.3389/fpubh.2026.1872501
Human Development and Fertility
Chaurasia, A. R. (2026) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-981-95-8169-6_8
Gil-Hernández, C. J., Vignoli, D., Guetto, R., Maitino, M. L., & Ravagli, L. (2026) · European Sociological Review · doi:10.1093/esr/jcag021
Gender ideology, institutional mismatch, and fertility: a cross-national panel analysis
Xu, Y., & Tokumaru, N. (2026) · Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review · doi:10.1007/s40844-026-00355-4
Lozano, M., Vidal, S., & Adserà, A. (2026) · Population Studies · doi:10.1080/00324728.2026.2682465
Non-Transferable Months of Parental Leave: Trends in Fathers’ Behavior
Galdauskaitė, D., & Maslauskaitė, A. (2026) · Socialinė teorija empirija politika ir praktika · doi:10.15388/stepp.2027.34.5
Gender Equity, Family Policy, and Fertility: Evidence from 30 OECD Countries, 2003–2021
Yoo, S. H. (2026) · Population Research and Policy Review · doi:10.1007/s11113-026-10029-z
Naghdi, D., Ghasemi, A., & Savadian, P. (2026) · Mental Health and Lifestyle Journal · doi:10.61838/mhlj.174
Parenthood decisions in uncertain times: Experimental evidence from four countries
Aassve, A., Mencarini, L., Peng, C., Plach, S., Amarales, A. R., & Tanturri, M. L. (2026) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2601690123
Mapping the Priorities: A Study of the Composition of Importance in Life Domains
Chiara, E. D., & Matteazzi, E. (2026) · Social Indicators Research · doi:10.1007/s11205-026-03897-7
Shay, D., Shavit, Y., & Weinreb, A. A. (2026) · Research in Social Stratification and Mobility · doi:10.1016/j.rssm.2026.101186
Wen, F., Cao, R., Chen, X., & Xie, F. (2026) · Social Science & Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2026.119684
The clash between work and family: impact of division of labor on fertility in Taiwan
Pan, S. C., & Shu, X. (2026) · Chinese Sociological Review · doi:10.1080/21620555.2026.2727421
How Many Children in a Family? Fertility Ideals and Gender Equality Norms in 26 Societies
Edlund, J., & Öun, I. (2026) · European Journal of Population / Revue européenne de Démographie · doi:10.1007/s10680-026-09786-6
The Gender Egalitarian Family Model: Empirical and Theoretical Problems
Paul, D. E. (2026) · Comparative Population Studies · doi:10.12765/cpos-2026-17
Kwan Hong, T. A. N. (2026) · International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science · doi:10.47772/ijriss.2026.100800459
Ramlan, S. I. (2026) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.7414399
Liu, W. (2026) · China Population and Development Studies · doi:10.1007/s42379-026-00225-x
Counseling Approach in Promoting and Strengthening Childbearing: Utilizing Peer EducationPreprint
Keramat, A., Nourimand, F., & Abadian, K. (2026) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-10938249/v1
Modernization and Gender Role Transformations in the Turkish Family: A Sociocultural Perspective
BÖLÜKBAŞI, A., & Türk, E. (2026) · Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi · doi:10.32709/akusosbil.1983431
Sun, Z., & Zhao, G. (2026) · Social Science Research · doi:10.1016/j.ssresearch.2026.103446
Why has low fertility become a polarized issue?
Iceland, J. (2026) · Theory and Society · doi:10.1007/s11186-026-09760-5
Carboni, G., Vignoli, D., & Benassi, F. (2026) · Demographic Research · doi:10.4054/demres.2026.55.27
Incentivizing Equality? How Work-Family Policies Affect Parenthood Penalties in 27 Countries
Dunatchik, A., & Goñalons-Pons, P. (2026) · American Sociological Review · doi:10.1177/00031224261489790
Digital matches and marital roles: Online partner selection and nontraditional housework in Japan
Potârcă, G., & Ishida, H. (2026) · Demographic Research · doi:10.4054/demres.2026.55.28
Metadata
- Authors
- Esping‐Andersen, G., & Billari, F. C.
- Affiliations
- Universitat Pompeu Fabra (ES)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Venue
- Population and Development Review
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2015-03
- Volume
- 41
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 1-31
- ISSN
- 0098-7921 (ISSN-L)
- 1728-4457
- OpenAlex
- W2026143456
- Cited by
- 763
- References
- 101
- Citations by year
- 2026: 59 · 2025: 65 · 2024: 69 · 2023: 83 · 2022: 73 · 2021: 79 · 2020: 93 · 2019: 69 · 2018: 67 · 2017: 42 · 2016: 50 · 2015: 10
- FWCI
- 143.01
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Population and Development Review (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Archivio istituzionale della Ricerca - Bocconi (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Demography › Family Dynamics and Relationships
- Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Gender, Labor, and Family Dynamics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Intergenerational and Educational Inequality Studies
- Keywords
- family demographics, fertility decline, marriage decline, social gradient, norm diffusion, fertility restoration, endogenous dynamics
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
