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Cited by 16Global trade and economicsGlobal Trade and CompetitivenessWorld Trade Organization Law

Do Japan’s Free Trade Agreements Increase Its International Trade?

Open access
Ando, Mitsuyo, Urata, Shujiro, Yamanouchi, Kenta·2022·Journal of Economic Integration
DOI 10.11130/jei.2022.37.1.1
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Abstract

This study analyzes the impacts of free trade agreements (FTAs) on bilateral trade, focusing on Japan’s FTAs. In particular, we examined both static and dynamic effects at the aggregated and disaggregated levels, using two datasets between 1995 and 2016 for Japanese trade only and world trade. For the static analysis, we investigated the overall impacts and the effect of individual FTAs. Regarding dynamic analysis, we considered the time since their enactment. Our results indicate that the impacts are heterogeneous among Japan’s FTAs and products, with a trade creation effect for some FTA partners. Moreover, our findings reveal that the trade creation effect is probably overestimated when trade between the third countries is not considered. We also found a positive dynamic effect for some products. Such a dynamic effect may emerge due to a longer time for firms to understand FTAs and learn their use and the gradual tariff reduction for some products.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.11130/jei.2022.37.1.1

Cites

20 of 20 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

3 of 8 cited sources checked · 1 supported · 1 flagged · accuracy not yet measured

  • Premisecitation

    The effects of FTAs may differ across agreements or countries.

    “Furthermore, the effects of FTAs may be different across agreements or countries, as suggested by Kohl (2014), Baier et al. (2018Baier et al. ( , 2019)), and Freeman and Pienknagura (2019).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Kohl (2014) source

      The indexed passages are labeled Abstract or contain repository metadata; no passage from the paper’s body was available to assess. Searches for agreement-level variation and differing trade effects returned only those passages, so the claim cannot be verified under the specified evidence rule. (LLM, conf=0.65)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites Baier et al. (2018 source
    • cites Baier et al. (2019) source
  • Premisecitation

    When a log-linearized model such as the gravity model is estimated by ordinary least squares (OLS), heteroskedasticity affects both consistency and efficiency.

    “Santos Silva and Tenreyro (2006) emphasized that when a log-linearized model, such as the gravity model, is estimated by ordinary least squares (OLS), heteroskedasticity affects both consistency and efficiency.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Santos Silva and Tenreyro (2006) source
  • Findingown data

    Japan's imports from CLMV increased rapidly, particularly since 2010.

    “Regarding Japan's imports by FTA partners, the imports from CLMV increased rapidly, particularly since 2010, similar to the export patterns.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingown data

    The impacts of Japan's FTAs on trade at the aggregate level vary among different FTAs.

    “Second, the impacts of Japan's FTAs on trade at the aggregate level vary among different FTAs (column titled”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingnone given

    Japan's exports to Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Vietnam (CLMV) expanded rapidly, particularly since 2010.

    “Moreover, Japan's exports to Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Vietnam (CLMV) have expanded rapidly, particularly since 2010.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 14
  • May combine two claims. 32

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    PPML is recommended for estimating the log-linearized model.

    “They recommended using PPML for estimating the log-linearized model.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Santos Silva and Tenreyro (2006) source

      In the estimation discussion, the paper specifies that PPML uses exports measured in levels, not a log-transformed dependent variable. Its comparison of estimators distinguishes PPML for the multiplicative model from estimators of the log-linearized model. The authors recommend PPML as an alternative to estimating the log-linearized model, not as a way to estimate it. (LLM, conf=0.90)

      Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Japan's exports and imports reached peaks in 2011/2012, recording an increase of 1.9 times for exports and 2.6 times for imports.

    “Moreover, they reached their peaks in 2011/2012, recording an increase of 1.9 times for exports and 2.6 times for imports.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The growth rate was positive but lower than Japan's overall exports for Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Switzerland.

    “The growth rate was positive but lower than Japan's overall exports for Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Switzerland.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Japan's imports in 2016 increased to twice the value for 1995 for chemical products (2.6 times) and general, electric, and precision machineries (2.3 times, 2.6 times, and 2.5 times, respectively).

    “Japan's imports in 2016 increased to twice the value for 1995 for chemical products (2.6 times) and general, electric, and precision machineries (2.3 times, 2.6 times, and 2.5 times, respectively).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Regarding the disaggregate trade estimate using Japan's trade only, a significantly positive relationship exists for some products: textiles and metal for exports, and agriculture, chemical, textiles, transport machinery, and precision machinery for imports.

    “Regarding the disaggregate trade estimate using Japan's trade only, a significantly positive relationship exists for some products: textiles and metal for exports, and agriculture, chemical, textiles, transport machinery, and precision machinery for imports.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Exports of major products increased, except for exports of textile products, which declined to 92% of the 1995 exports in 2016.

    “Despite fluctuations in Japan's trade by major products, exports of major products increased, except for its exports of textile products, which declined to 92% of the 1995 exports in 2016 (Table 4).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Both exports and imports grew faster than GDP, whose value in US dollars declined by 10% during 1995-2016.

    “Both exports and imports grew faster than the GDP, whose value in US dollars declined by 10% during 1995-2016.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Japan's imports from Mongolia in 2016 declined to only 19% of the value for 1995, with some fluctuations during 1995-2016.

    “By contrast, Japan's imports from Mongolia in 2016 declined to only 19% of the value for 1995, with some fluctuations during 1995-2016.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Japan's exports in 2016 increased twice the amount in 1995 for agricultural products (2.4 times) and chemical products (2.1 times) and nearly doubled for metal products (1.9 times) and transport machinery (1.9 times).

    “Moreover, Japan's exports in 2016 increased twice the amount in 1995 for agricultural products (2.4 times) and chemical products (2.1 times) and nearly doubled for metal products (1.9 times) and transport machinery (1.9 times).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Among CLMV, Vietnam recorded the largest expansion, whereas Lao PDR recorded the smallest.

    “Among CLMV, Vietnam recorded the largest expansion, whereas the Lao PDR recorded the smallest.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Exports declined after enacting FTAs by more than 10% for Brunei, the Philippines, and Australia, and imports reduced for the Philippines, Australia, and Mongolia.

    “In contrast, exports declined after enacting FTAs by more than 10% for Brunei, the Philippines, and Australia, and imports reduced for the Philippines, Australia, and Mongolia.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Japan's exports to and imports from the world for 2016 were 1.5 and 1.8 times greater than the corresponding values for 1995, respectively.

    “Specifically, Japan's exports to and imports from the world for 2016 were 1.5 and 1.8 times greater than the corresponding values for 1995, respectively.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The coefficients for Japan's overall FTAs in equations without importer/exporter-fixed effects using only Japan's trade data are positive and statistically significant for both exports and imports.

    “The coefficients for Japan's overall FTAs in equations without importer/exporter-fixed effects using only Japan's trade data are positive”
    • Also stated in: § A. The static analysis of the effects of FTAs · plain
      “and statistically significant for both exports and imports (see Table A.3)”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    A significantly large increase is observed for exports to Mexico, Chile, Indonesia, and Cambodia (more than 50%) and for imports from Cambodia and Lao PDR (more than twice).

    “A significantly large increase is observed for exports to Mexico, Chile, Indonesia, and Cambodia (i.e., more than 50%) and for imports from Cambodia and Lao PDR (i.e., more than twice).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Japan's imports of major products fluctuated but increased.

    “Similar to exports, Japan's imports of major products fluctuated but increased.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Japan's trade fluctuated but tended to increase, with peaks in 2011/2012.

    “As the global figures in Table 2 show, Japan's trade fluctuated but tended to increase with its peaks in 2011/2012.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The estimated coefficients for the analysis of world trade are positive and statistically significant only for metal products in the case of exports and for textiles and transport machinery in the case of imports.

    “The estimated coefficients for the analysis of the world trade are positive and statistically significant only for metal products in the case of exports and for textiles and transport machinery in the case of imports.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In analyzing world trade data at the aggregate level for 17 FTA partners, the estimated coefficients on FTAs are positive and statistically significant for 11 and 6 FTA partners for exports and imports, respectively.

    “In analyzing world trade data at the aggregate level for 17 FTA partners, we determined that the estimated coefficients on FTAs are positive and statistically significant for 11 and 6 FTA partners for exports and imports, respectively.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Japan's FTA partners shown to have the trade creation effect are Australia, Cambodia, Chile, India, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Mexico, Mongolia, Myanmar, and Thailand in the case of exports, and Brunei, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, and the Philippines in the case of imports.

    “Japan's FTA partners shown to have the trade creation effect are Australia, Cambodia, Chile, India, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Mexico, Mongolia, Myanmar, and Thailand in the case of exports, and Brunei, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, and the Philippines in the case of imports.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The dynamic effect is detected relatively long for metal product exports, but its magnitude is rather small.

    “Furthermore, the dynamic effect is detected relatively long for metal product exports, but its magnitude is rather small.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    For imports, textiles had the highest number of FTAs with a trade creation effect (13), followed by transport machinery and agricultural products (9 each); general, precision, and electric machineries had lower numbers (4 or 5).

    “Regarding imports, textiles have the highest number at 13 FTAs with the trade creation effect, followed by transport machinery and agricultural products, both at 9 FTAs.In contrast, general, precision, and electric machineries show lower numbers at four or five FTAs.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Announcement-effect cases occur for metals in exports (Japan's trade and world trade) and chemical products and transport machinery in imports (Japan's trade data only).

    “Such cases occur for metals in exports (in the cases of data using Japan's trade and world trade) and chemical products and transport machinery in the case of imports (using Japan's trade data only).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Transport machinery registers a large dynamic effect, but the increasing pace over time is slow.

    “Although transport machinery also registers a large dynamic effect, the increasing pace over time is slow.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Estimation of disaggregated product-level data yields positive and statistically significant results for some products, corresponding to cases with statistically significant positive results in Table 5.

    “The estimation of disaggregated product-level data yields positive and statistically significant results for some products (Tables A.7 and A.8), which correspond to the cases with statistically significant positive results in Table 5.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The world-trade estimates are approximately 10 percentage points lower than estimates using only Japan's trade data, which are 50% for both exports and imports.

    “These values are approximately 10 percentage points lower than those from the estimation using only Japan's trade data at 50% for both exports and imports”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Metal products register the largest number of FTAs (i.e., 10), for which the trade creation effect is detected.

    “Metal products register the largest number of FTAs (i.e., 10), for which the trade creation effect is detected.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    For exports, the trade creation effect is detectable for more than 35% of FTAs for seven products, except for agricultural products, for which the trade creation effect is detected for only one FTA.

    “For exports, the trade creation effect is detectable for more than 35% of FTAs for seven products, except for agricultural products, for which the trade creation effect is detected for only one FTA.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Regarding imports, a dynamic effect exists for agricultural products, textiles, chemical products, transport machinery, and precision machinery, with the effect most conspicuous for textiles.

    “Regarding imports, a dynamic effect exists for agricultural products, textiles, chemical products, transport machinery, and precision machinery, in which the effect is most conspicuous for textiles.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Some FTAs have trade creation effects, whereas others do not.

    “Some FTAs have trade creation effects, whereas others do not.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning

    The increase in trade, particularly imports, in the machinery sector reflects the remarkable expansion of active back-and-forth transactions of parts and components of machinery within rapidly growing regional production networks in East Asia.

    “This reflects the remarkable expansion of active back-and-forth transactions of parts and components of machinery within rapidly growing regional production networks in East Asia.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisereasoning

    Trade flow with zero value must be excluded from the sample when OLS with log-linearization is used to estimate the equation because a logged value of zero is not defined.

    “Moreover, trade flow with zero value must be excluded from the sample when OLS with log-linearization is used to estimate the equation because a logged value of zero is not defined.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    Japan's FTA partners may increase trade values with the rest of the world after their FTAs with Japan were enforced.

    “However, Japan's FTA partners may increase trade values with the rest of the world after their FTAs with Japan were enforced.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisereasoning

    Increased trade values with Japan may be attributable to factors other than FTAs with Japan.

    “Here, the increased trade values with Japan may be attributable to factors other than FTAs with Japan.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    An FTA's impact on trade may not be realized immediately because trading firms might take time to learn and understand the FTA.

    “An FTA's impact on trade may not be realized immediately because trading firms might take time to learn and understand the FTA.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductnone given

    The estimation method and specifications used can deal with the aforementioned problems.

    “Such an estimation method and specifications can deal with the aforementioned problems.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    In an analysis of imports using Japan's trade data, Ando and Urata (2018) found that small preferential margins and restrictive ROOs deter the use of FTAs.

    “In an analysis of imports using Japan's trade data, Ando and Urata (2018) found that small preferential margins and restrictive ROOs deter the use of FTAs.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Ando and Urata (2018)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Some FTA partners increased trade with Japan after FTA enactment, but expanded trade with other countries more significantly, sometimes unilaterally.

    “It implies that some FTA partners increased trade with Japan after the FTA enactment, but they expanded their trade with other countries more significantly, sometimes unilaterally.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    High FTA preferential margin, the difference between MFN and FTA tariff rates, leads to high use of FTAs, thus increasing imports in the case of Japan.

    “Indeed, Ando and Urata (2018) found that high FTA preferential margin, that is, the difference between MFN and FTA tariff rates, leads to high use of FTAs, thus increasing imports in the case of Japan.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Ando and Urata (2018)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Premisereasoning

    Exporting and importing firms may take time to know about FTAs and learn how to use them.

    “We examine the dynamic effects of FTAs based on the observation that exporting and importing firms may take time to know about FTAs and learn how to use them.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning

    Exporters' or importers' lack of knowledge of FTAs is likely to have resulted in the absence of the trade creation effect of FTAs.

    “Exporters or importers' lack of knowledge of FTAs is likely to have resulted in the absence of the trade creation effect of FTAs.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning

    These findings may reflect the high monitoring capability of these sectors, or their business organization, regarding the development of FTA trade negotiations.

    “These findings may reflect the high monitoring capability of these sectors (or their business organization) regarding the development of FTA trade negotiations.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Restrictive rules of origin deter the use of FTAs, limiting import expansion from FTAs.

    “Furthermore, they found that the restrictive rules of origin deter the use of FTAs, limiting the import expansion from FTAs.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Ando and Urata (2018)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

42 of 42

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The effects of FTAs are constant after 7 years.

    “Here we consider the possible dynamic trade expansion effect from 1 year before to 6 years after the enactment of the FTA and assume that the effects are constant after 7 years.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    In equation (4), the effects of FTAs on Japan's trade are the same for all Japan's FTA partner countries.

    “In equation ( 4), we assume that the effects of FTAs on Japan's trade are the same for all Japan's FTA partner countries.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Traders do not use FTAs unless they expect to increase profits.

    “Traders do not use FTAs unless they expect to increase profits.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    FTA preferential margins are small.

    “For instance, FTA preferential margins are small, and the cost of obtaining the COO, which is mandatory for using FTAs, is high.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The cost of obtaining the COO, which is mandatory for using FTAs, is high.

    “For instance, FTA preferential margins are small, and the cost of obtaining the COO, which is mandatory for using FTAs, is high.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The cost of obtaining COOs is high when the rules of origin (ROOs) are restrictive.

    “The cost of obtaining the COOs is high when the rules of origin (ROOs) are restrictive.”
6 of 6

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • The export-partner count does not match the list

    Minor

    The paper reports a significant export effect for 11 FTA partners, but the accompanying list names only 10.

1 of 1

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Related

Authors
Ando, M., Urata, S., & Yamanouchi, K.
Affiliations
  • Keio University (JP)
  • Waseda University (JP)
  • Kagawa University (JP)
Corresponding author
Ando, Mitsuyo
ORCID
Venue
Journal of Economic Integration
Publisher
Center for Economic Integration
Published
2022-03-15
Volume
37
Issue
1
Pages
1-29
ISSN
  • 1225-651X (ISSN-L)
  • 1976-5525
DOI
10.11130/jei.2022.37.1.1
OpenAlex
W4214611630
Cited by
16
References
18
Citations by year
2026: 1 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 7 · 2022: 1
FWCI
5.19
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
Journal of Economic Integration (publishedVersion)
Funders
Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Global trade and economics
  • Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Strategy and Management › Global Trade and Competitiveness
  • Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › World Trade Organization Law
Keywords
free trade agreements, bilateral trade, tariff reduction, Japanese trade, third-country trade

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Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-11.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-11.

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