Mapping the Antigenic and Genetic Evolution of Influenza Virus
Abstract
The antigenic evolution of influenza A (H3N2) virus was quantified and visualized from its introduction into humans in 1968 to 2003. Although there was remarkable correspondence between antigenic and genetic evolution, significant differences were observed: Antigenic evolution was more punctuated than genetic evolution, and genetic change sometimes had a disproportionately large antigenic effect. The method readily allows monitoring of antigenic differences among vaccine and circulating strains and thus estimation of the effects of vaccination. Further, this approach offers a route to predicting the relative success of emerging strains, which could be achieved by quantifying the combined effects of population level immune escape and viral fitness on strain evolution.
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The magnitude of the differences in neutralization GMTs against the mutant viruses (0.81- to 1.41-fold) was small compared with the greater than four-fold differences in hemagglutination-inhibition titers used to signal a potential need for a strain change in influenza vaccines.
“hemagglutination-inhibition titers that have been used to signal potential need for a strain change in influenza vaccines 13 .”
From Neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 spike 69/70 deletion, E484K and N501Y variants by BNT162b2 vaccine-elicited sera (2021) · cites this paper as [13]
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- Authors
- Smith, D. J., Lapedes, A. S., de Jong, J. C., Bestebroer, T. M., Rimmelzwaan, G. F., Osterhaus, A. D. M. E., & Fouchier, R. A. M.
- Affiliations
- Los Alamos National Laboratory (US)
- Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK.
- Corresponding author
- Smith, Derek J.
- Lapedes, Alan S.
- Fouchier, Ron A. M.
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2004-07-16
- Volume
- 305
- Issue
- 5682
- Pages
- 371-376
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W1979158913
- Cited by
- 1,868
- References
- 31
- Citations by year
- 2026: 106 · 2025: 116 · 2024: 138 · 2023: 125 · 2022: 100 · 2021: 130 · 2020: 95 · 2019: 82 · 2018: 85 · 2017: 65 · 2016: 98 · 2015: 83 · 2014: 80 · 2013: 90 · 2012: 62
- FWCI
- 24.11
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (publishedVersion)
- EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Influenza Virus Research Studies
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Evolution and Genetic Dynamics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Respiratory viral infections research
- Keywords
- H3N2, antigenic drift, genetic evolution, antigenic mapping, circulating strains, vaccine impact, immune evasion, viral fitness
- MeSH terms
- Antigenic Variation, Genes, Viral, Hemagglutination Inhibition Tests, Hemagglutinins, Viral, Humans, Influenza, Human, Molecular Sequence Data, Mutation, Influenza A virus, Seasons, Genetic Variation, Virology, Mutagenesis, Site-Directed, Evolution, Molecular, Amino Acid Substitution, Genetic Drift
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