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A Large and Persistent Carbon Sink in the World’s Forests
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The terrestrial carbon sink has been large in recent decades, but its size and location remain uncertain. Using forest inventory data and long-term ecosystem carbon studies, we estimate a total forest sink of 2.4 ± 0.4 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year(-1)) globally for 1990 to 2007. We also estimate a source of 1.3 ± 0.7 Pg C year(-1) from tropical land-use change, consisting of a gross tropical deforestation emission of 2.9 ± 0.5 Pg C year(-1) partially compensated by a carbon sink in tropical forest regrowth of 1.6 ± 0.5 Pg C year(-1). Together, the fluxes comprise a net global forest sink of 1.1 ± 0.8 Pg C year(-1), with tropical estimates having the largest uncertainties. Our total forest sink estimate is equivalent in magnitude to the terrestrial sink deduced from fossil fuel emissions and land-use change sources minus ocean and atmospheric sinks.
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“The global forest net C sink is estimated at 10.7 Gt CO2-eq year−1,112 which is mainly distributed in temperate regions.145”
From Technologies and perspectives for achieving carbon neutrality (2021) · cites this paper as [145]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Pan, Y., Birdsey, R. A., Fang, J., Houghton, R., Kauppi, P. E., Kurz, W. A., Phillips, O. L., Shvidenko, A., Lewis, S. L., Canadell, J. G., Ciais, P., Jackson, R. B., Pacala, S. W., McGuire, A. D., Piao, S., Rautiainen, A., Sitch, S., & Hayes, D.
- Affiliations
- US Forest Service (US)
- Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN)
- Woodwell Climate Research Center (US)
- University of Helsinki (FI)
- Canadian Forest Service (CA)
- University of Leeds (GB)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- Duke University (US)
- Princeton University (US)
- United States Geological Survey (US)
- Peking University (CN)
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory (US)
- Corresponding author
- Pan, Yude
- ORCID
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2011-08-19
- Volume
- 333
- Issue
- 6045
- Pages
- 988-993
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- OpenAlex
- W1516075103
- Cited by
- 8,458
- References
- 32
- Citations by year
- 2026: 799 · 2025: 838 · 2024: 847 · 2023: 785 · 2022: 763 · 2021: 784 · 2020: 570 · 2019: 531 · 2018: 531 · 2017: 404 · 2016: 407 · 2015: 339 · 2014: 318 · 2013: 318 · 2012: 194
- FWCI
- 231.99
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- Institute of Botany, CAS Institutional Repository (submittedVersion)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion)
- FSC® Open Knowledge Repository (FSCOKR)
- Funders
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/B503384/1, NE/B504630/1, NE/D000300/1)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Forestry › Forest Management and Policy
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Forestry › Forest ecology and management
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Keywords
- terrestrial carbon sink, tropical deforestation, land use change emissions, forest inventory data, fossil fuel emissions
- MeSH terms
- Atmosphere, Carbon, Carbon Dioxide, Conservation of Natural Resources, Trees, Tropical Climate, Ecosystem, Biomass, Climate Change, Carbon Sequestration
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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