IDF Diabetes Atlas: Global, regional and country-level diabetes prevalence estimates for 2021 and projections for 2045
Open accessAbstract
Aims To provide global, regional, and country-level estimates of diabetes prevalence and health expenditures for 2021 and projections for 2045.Methods A total of 219 data sources meeting pre-established quality criteria reporting research conducted between 2005 and 2020 and representing 215 countries and territories were identified. For countries without data meeting quality criteria, estimates were extrapolated from countries with similar economies, ethnicity, geography and language. Logistic regression was used to generate smoothed age-specific diabetes prevalence estimates. Diabetes-related health expenditures were estimated using an attributable fraction method. The 2021 diabetes prevalence estimates were applied to population estimates for 2045 to project future prevalence.Results The global diabetes prevalence in 20-79 year olds in 2021 was estimated to be 10.5% (536.6 million people), rising to 12.2% (783.2 million) in 2045. Diabetes prevalence was similar in men and women and was highest in those aged 75-79 years. Prevalence (in 2021) was estimated to be higher in urban (12.1%) than rural (8.3%) areas, and in high-income (11.1%) compared to low-income countries (5.5%). The greatest relative increase in the prevalence of diabetes between 2021 and 2045 is expected to occur in middle-income countries (21.1%) compared to high- (12.2%) and low-income (11.9%) countries. Global diabetes-related health expenditures were estimated at 966 billion USD in 2021, and are projected to reach 1,054 billion USD by 2045.Conclusions Just over half a billion people are living with diabetes worldwide which means that over 10.5% of the world's adult population now have this condition.
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According to IDF estimates, diabetes resulted in health expenditures of US$966 billion globally in 2021, forecast to reach more than $1054 billion by 2045.
“resulting in health expenditures of US$966 billion globally, forecast to reach more than $1054 billion by 2045.4, 10”
From Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (2023) · cites this paper as [10]
The Results (Health expenditure) report global diabetes-related healthcare expenditure of USD 966 billion in 2021 and predict USD 1,054 billion for 2045. The source does not say the 2045 figure will be more than USD 1,054 billion; it gives that figure as the estimate. (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredType 1 diabetes often develops during childhood, while type 2 diabetes has a strong genetic component and a robust association with obesity and a sedentary lifestyle.
“Type 1 diabetes often develops during childhood, while type 2 diabetes has a strong genetic component and a robust association with obesity and a sedentary lifestyle.10, 13”
From Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (2023) · cites this paper as [10]
The Discussion > Limitations passage says type 1 diabetes incidence peaks in childhood and links type 2 diabetes to excess body weight and sedentary behaviour. It does not describe a strong genetic component of type 2 diabetes; its discussion of genetic factors concerns type 1 diabetes. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredAccording to IDF estimates, 537 million people worldwide had diabetes in 2021.
“estimates by the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) indicating that 537 million people worldwide had diabetes in 2021”
Ageing is strongly associated with type 2 diabetes.
“There is a strong association between ageing and T2DM2”
From Exercise activates AMPK in mouse and human pancreatic islets to decrease senescence (2024) · cites this paper as [2]
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- Authors
- Sun, H., Saeedi, P., Karuranga, S., Pinkepank, M., Ogurtsova, K., Duncan, B. B., Stein, C., Basit, A., Chan, J. C. N., Mbanya, J. C., Pavkov, M. E., Ramachandaran, A., Wild, S. H., James, S., Herman, W. H., Zhang, P., Bommer, C., Kuo, S., Boyko, E. J., & Magliano, D. J.
- Affiliations
- International Diabetes Federation (BE)
- Deutsches Diabetes-Zentrum e.V. (DE)
- Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (BR)
- Baqai Medical University (PK)
- Chinese University of Hong Kong (HK)
- Université de Yaoundé I (CM)
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US)
- India Diabetes Research Foundation (IN)
- University of Edinburgh (GB)
- University of the Sunshine Coast (AU)
- University of Michigan (US)
- Heidelberg University (DE)
- VA Puget Sound Health Care System (US)
- Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute (AU)
- Corresponding author
- Magliano, Dianna J.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2022-01
- Volume
- 183
- Pages
- 109119
- ISSN
- 0168-8227 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC11057359
- OpenAlex
- W4200026682
- Cited by
- 10,123
- References
- 15
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1804 · 2025: 2782 · 2024: 2693 · 2023: 2010 · 2022: 812 · 2021: 6 · 2019: 1 · 2018: 1 · 2017: 1 · 2013: 2
- FWCI
- 1039.30
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Update notices
- erratum (2023-10-01)
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Licence
- Locations
- Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- GoeScholar The Publication Server of the Georg-August-Universität Göttingen (Georg-August-Universität Göttingen) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Edinburgh Research Explorer (University of Edinburgh) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (CC999999)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Management and Research
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › Health Information Management › Global Health and Epidemiology
- Keywords
- diabetes prevalence, diabetes projections, age-specific prevalence, urban-rural differences, middle-income countries, global burden of disease
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Aged, Diabetes Mellitus, Health Expenditures, Female, Forecasting, Humans, Male, Global Health, Prevalence
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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