Cognitive debiasing 2: impediments to and strategies for change
Open accessAbstract
In a companion paper, we proposed that cognitive debiasing is a skill essential in developing sound clinical reasoning to mitigate the incidence of diagnostic failure. We reviewed the origins of cognitive biases and some proposed mechanisms for how debiasing processes might work. In this paper, we first outline a general schema of how cognitive change occurs and the constraints that may apply. We review a variety of individual factors, many of them biases themselves, which may be impediments to change. We then examine the major strategies that have been developed in the social sciences and in medicine to achieve cognitive and affective debiasing, including the important concept of forcing functions. The abundance and rich variety of approaches that exist in the literature and in individual clinical domains illustrate the difficulties inherent in achieving cognitive change, and also the need for such interventions. Ongoing cognitive debiasing is arguably the most important feature of the critical thinker and the well-calibrated mind. We outline three groups of suggested interventions going forward: educational strategies, workplace strategies and forcing functions. We stress the importance of ambient and contextual influences on the quality of individual decision making and the need to address factors known to impair calibration of the decision maker. We also emphasise the importance of introducing these concepts and corollary development of training in critical thinking in the undergraduate level in medical education.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Cognitive forcing strategies, such as diagnostic timeouts, may be effective in preventing failed heuristics by prompting providers to analytically engage with their decisions.
“Cognitive forcing strategies, such as diagnostic timeouts, may be effective in preventing failed heuristics by prompting providers to analytically engage with their decisions [19, 40].”
From To Recommend or Not to Recommend: Designing and Evaluating AI-Enabled Decision Support for Time-Critical Medical Events (2025) · cites this paper as [19]
In “Strategies for cognitive debiasing” (Tables 1–2; page unavailable), the paper says cognitive forcing strategies can mitigate biases leading to decision errors and describes deliberate reflection as a way to check initial diagnoses. It mentions a planned time-out in the operating room, but does not identify diagnostic timeouts as a cognitive forcing strategy or establish their effectiveness in preventing failed heuristics. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIn time-critical decision making, providers may look for and prioritize evidence that supports their initial decisions instead of seeking evidence that challenges these decisions.
“In time-critical decision making, providers may look for and prioritize evidence that supports their initial decisions instead of seeking evidence that challenges these decisions (e.g., anchoring and confirmation biases) [19, 22].”
From To Recommend or Not to Recommend: Designing and Evaluating AI-Enabled Decision Support for Time-Critical Medical Events (2025) · cites this paper as [19]
The ‘Strategies for cognitive debiasing’ section (page unavailable) recommends seeking evidence for a decision opposite to an initial impression and warns against relying on early diagnoses. This supports the concern about failing to challenge an initial decision, but the passages do not specifically establish that providers prioritize confirming evidence in time-critical decisions. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
In search of how people change: Applications to addictive behaviors.
Prochaska, J. O., DiClemente, C. C., & Norcross, J. C. (1992) · American Psychologist · doi:10.1037/0003-066x.47.9.1102 · Cited by 8,596 · see citing works
A surgical safety checklist to reduce morbidity and mortality in a global population
Haynes, A. B., Weiser, T. G., Berry, W. R., Lipsitz, S. R., Breizat, A.-H. S., Dellinger, E. P., Herbosa, T., Joseph, S., Kibatala, P. L., Lapitan, M. C. M., et al. (2009) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmsa0810119 · Cited by 5,688 · cited 1× · see citing works
“…▸ The implementation of a surgical safety checklist led to reductions in death rates and complications in non-cardiac surgery in a multicenter study 62 Stopping rules Stopping rules are an important form of forcing functions — they determine when enough information has been gathered to make an…”
BackgroundAn Intervention to Decrease Catheter-Related Bloodstream Infections in the ICU
Pronovost, P., Needham, D., Berenholtz, S., Sinopoli, D., Chu, H., Cosgrove, S., Sexton, B., Hyzy, R., Welsh, R., Roth, G., et al. (2006) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa061115 · Cited by 4,387 · see citing works
The Importance of Cognitive Errors in Diagnosis and Strategies to Minimize Them
Croskerry, P. (2003) · Academic Medicine · doi:10.1097/00001888-200308000-00003 · Cited by 1,675 · see citing works
Self-citationMedical Problem Solving: An Analysis of Clinical Reasoning
Elstein, A. S., Shulman, L. S., & Sprafka, S. A. (1978) · doi:10.4159/harvard.9780674189089 · Cited by 1,377 · see citing works
Mental contamination and mental correction: Unwanted influences on judgments and evaluations.
Wilson, T. D., & Brekke, N. (1994) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/0033-2909.116.1.117 · Cited by 1,157 · cited 3× · see citing works
“5.”
BackgroundRationality and the Reflective Mind
Stanovich, K. (2010) · doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195341140.001.0001 · Cited by 1,041 · see citing works
A Universal Model of Diagnostic Reasoning
Croskerry, P. (2009) · Academic Medicine · doi:10.1097/acm.0b013e3181ace703 · Cited by 1,016 · see citing works
Self-citationChecklists to Reduce Diagnostic Errors
Ely, J. W., Graber, M. L., & Croskerry, P. (2011) · Academic Medicine · doi:10.1097/acm.0b013e31820824cd · Cited by 366 · see citing works
Self-citationNisbett, R. E., Fong, G. T., Lehman, D. R., & Cheng, P. W. (1987) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.3672116 · Cited by 272 · see citing works
Whither cognitive bias modification research? Commentary on the special section articles.
MacLeod, C., Koster, E. H. W., & Fox, E. (2009) · Journal of Abnormal Psychology · doi:10.1037/a0014878 · Cited by 239 · see citing works
Understanding and addressing cognitive bias in medical education
Hershberger, P. J., Markert, R. J., Part, H. M., Cohen, S. M., & Finger, W. W. (1996) · Advances in Health Sciences Education · doi:10.1007/bf00162919 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 63
- [1]Croskerry P, Singhal G, Mamede S. Cognitive debiasing 1: origins of bias and theory of debiasing. 2013;0:1–7. doi:10.1136/bmjqs-2012-001712 PMC3786658 23882089 · DOI
- [2]Newell BR Wong KY Cheung JCH Think, blink or sleep on it? The impact of modes of thought on complex decision making. Q J Exp Psychol 2009; 62: 707– 32 18726822
- [3]Prochaska JO DiClemente CC Norcross JC In search of how people change. Am Psychol 1992; 47: 1102– 4 1329589
- [4]De Neys W Moyens E Vansteenwegen D Feeling we're biased: autonomic arousal and reasoning conflict. Cogn Affect Behav Neurosci 2010; 10: 208– 16 20498345
- [7]Zajonc RB Feeling and thinking: preferences need no inferences. Am Psychol 1980; 35: 151– 75
- [8]Horton K Aid and bias. Inquiry 2004; 47: 545– 61
- [9]Fischoff B Debiasing. In: Kahneman D Slovic P Tversky A, eds. Judgment under uncertainty; heuristics and biases. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 1982: 422– 44
- [11]Berner ES Graber ML Overconfidence as a cause of diagnostic error in medicine. Am J Med 2008; 121 (5 Suppl) Diagnostic Error in Medicine: S2– 23 18440350
- [12]Beyerstein BL Alternative medicine and common errors of reasoning. Acad Med 2001; 76: 230– 7 11242572
- [13]Pronin E Gilovich T Ross L Objectivity in the eye of the beholder: divergent perceptions of bias in self versus others. Psychol Rev 2004; 111: 781– 99 15250784
- [15]Stanovich KE West RF Individual differences in reasoning: implications for the rationality debate? Behav Brain Sci 2000; 23: 645– 65 11301544
- [17]Croskerry P Clinical cognition and diagnostic error: applications of a dual process model of reasoning. Adv Health Sci Educ Theory Pract 2009; 14 (Suppl 1) Diagnostic Error in Medicine 27– 35 19669918
- [19]Croskerry P Cognitive and affective dispositions to respond. In: Croskerry P Cosby KS Schenkel S Wears R, eds. Patient safety in emergency medicine. Philadelphia: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, 2008: 219– 27
- [20]Croskerry P Abbass A Wu A Emotional issues in patient safety. J Patient Saf 2010; 6: 1– 7 21500605
- [21]Jenicek M Medical error and harm: understanding, prevention and control. New York: Productivity Press, 2011
- [22]Hershberger PJ Part HM Markert RJ Teaching awareness of cognitive bias in medical decision making. Acad Med 1995; 70: 661 7646736
- [24]Turk DC Salovey P Clinical information processing: bias inoculation. In: Ingram RE, ed. Information processing approaches to clinical psychology. Orlando, FL: Academic Press, 1986: 305– 23
- [25]Mumma GH Wilson SB Procedural debiasing of primacy/anchoring effects in clinical-like judgments. J Clin Psychol 1995; 51: 841– 53 8778134
- [26]Sherbino J Dore KL Siu E The effectiveness of cognitive forcing strategies to decrease diagnostic error: an exploratory study. Teach Learn Med 2011; 23: 78– 84 21240788
- [27]Fong GT Krantz DH Nisbett R The effect of statistical training on thinking about everyday problems. Cogn Psychol 1986; 18: 253– 92
- [29]Eva KW Hatala RM LeBlanc VR Teaching from the clinical reasoning literature: combined reasoning strategies help novice diagnosticians overcome misleading information. Med Educ 2007; 41: 1152– 8 18045367
- [30]Crowley RS, Legowski E, Medvedeva O, et al. Automated detection of heuristics and biases among pathologists in a computer-based system. Adv Health Sci Educ 2013;18:343–63 PMC3728442 22618855
- [31]Stiegler MP Neelankavil JP Canales C Cognitive errors detected in anaesthesiology: a literature review and pilot study. Br J Anaesth 2012; 108: 229– 35 22157846
- [32]Bond WF Deitrick LM Arnold DC Using simulation to instruct emergency medicine residents in cognitive forcing strategies. Acad Emerg Med 2004; 79: 438– 46 15107283
- [34]Umanath NS Vessey I Multiattribute data presentation and human judgment: a cognitive fit perspective. Decis Sci 1994; 25: 795– 824
- [35]Campbell WW Augenblickdiagnose. Semin Neurol 1998; 18: 169– 76 9608614
- [36]Silen W Cope's early diagnosis of the acute abdomen. 15th edn New York: Oxford University Press, 1979
- [38]Whaley AL Geller PA Toward a cognitive process model of ethnic/racial biases in clinical judgment. Rev Gen Psychol 2007; 11: 75– 96
- [40]Mamede S Penaforte JC Schmidt HG Effects of reflective practice on the accuracy of medical diagnoses. Med Educ 2008; 42: 468– 5 18412886
- [41]Mamede S van Gog T van den Berge K Effect of availability bias and reflective reasoning on diagnostic accuracy among internal medicine residents. JAMA 2010; 304: 1198– 203 20841533
- [42]Moulton CAE Regehr G Mylopoulos M Slowing down when you should: a new model of expert judgment. Acad Med 2007; 82: S109– 16 17895673
- [43]Moulton CA Regehr G Lingard L Slowing down to stay out of trouble in the operating room: remaining attentive in automaticity. Acad Med 2010; 85: 1571– 7 20881677
- [45]Daumit GL Pronovost PJ Anthony CB Adverse events during medical and surgical hospitalizations or persons with schizophrenia. Arch Gen Psychiatry 2006; 63: 267– 72 16520431
- [47]Bornstein G Yaniv I Individual and group behavior in the ultimatum game: are groups more “rational” players? Exp Econ 1998; 1: 101– 8
- [48]Tetlock PE Kim JI Accountability and judgment processes in a personality prediction task. J Pers Soc Psychol 1987; 52: 700– 9 3572733
- [49]Hogarth RM Educating intuition. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2001
- [50]Croskerry P ED cognition: any decision by anyone at any time. ED administration series. CJEM. 10.2310/8000.2013.131053 24423996 · DOI
- [51]Gilbert DT The assent of man: mental representation and the control of belief. In: Wegner DM Pennebaker JW, eds. The handbook of mental control. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1993: 57– 87
- [52]Radecki RP Medow MA Cognitive debiasing through Sparkelines in clinical data displays. AMIA Annu Symp Proc 2007; 11: 1085 18694183
- [53]Bauer DT Guerlain S Brown PJ The design and evaluation of a graphical display for laboratory data. J Am Med Inform Assoc 2010; 17: 416– 24 20595309 PMC2995657
- [54]Barnett GO Cimino JJ Hupp JA An evolving diagnostic decision-support system. JAMA 1987; 258: 67– 74 3295316
- [55]Ramnarayan P Roberts GC Coren M et al., Assessment of the potential impact of a reminder system on the reduction of diagnostic errors: a quasi-experimental study. BMC Med Inform Decis Mak 2006; 6: 22 16646956 PMC1513379
- [56]Grove WM Meehl PE Comparative efficiency of informal (subjective, impressionistic) and formal (mechanical, algorithmic) prediction procedures: the clinical–statistical controversy. Psychol Public Policy Law 1996; 2: 293– 323
- [57]McGinn T Jervis R Wisnivesky J Tips for teachers of evidence-based medicine: clinical prediction rules (CPRs) and estimating pretest probability. Gen Intern Med 2008; 23: 1261– 8 PMC2517969 18491194
- [58]Croskerry P Cognitive forcing strategies in clinical decision making. Ann Emerg Med 2003; 41: 110– 20 12514691
- [59]Trowbridge RL Twelve tips for teaching avoidance of diagnostic errors. Med Teach 2008; 30: 496– 500 18576188
- [63]Simon HA The sciences of the artificial. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1981
- [64]Bazerman MH Judgment in managerial decision making, 5th edn New York: Wiley & Sons, 2002
- [65]Lord CG Lepper MR Preston E Considering the opposite: a corrective strategy for social judgment. J Pers Soc Psychol 1984; 47: 1231– 43 6527215
- [66]Galinsky AD Moskowitz GB Counterfactuals as Behavioral Primes: priming the simulation heuristic and consideration of alternatives. J Exp Soc Psychol 2000; 36: 384– 409
- [67]Bishop MA Trout JD Epistemology and the psychology of human judgment. New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 2005: 148– 52
- [68]Thaler RH Sunstein CR Nudge: improving decisions about health, wealth, and happiness. New York: Penguin Books, 2009
- [70]Keren G Cognitive aids and debiasing methods: can cognitive pills cure cognitive ills? Adv Psychol 1990; 68: 523– 52
- [71]Arkes HR Costs and benefits of judgment errors: implications for de-biasing. Psychol Bul 1991; 110: 486– 98
- [72]Arnott D Cognitive biases and decision support systems development: a design science approach. Info Systems J 2006; 16: 55– 78
- [73]Campbell SA Croskerry P Bond W Profiles in patient safety: a “perfect storm” in the emergency department. Acad Emerg Med 2007; 14: 743– 9 17538077
- [74]Lawson AE Daniel ES Inferences of clinical diagnostic reasoning and diagnostic error. J Biomed Inform 2011; 44: 402– 12 20093196
- [76]Graber ML Kissam S Payne VL Cognitive interventions to reduce diagnostic error: a narrative review. BMJ Qual Saf 2012; 21: 535– 57 22543420
- [77]Millennium Conference 2011 on Critical Thinking. The Carl J. Shapiro Institute for Education and Research at Harvard Medical School and Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Babson College, Wellesley, MA, May 19–21, 2011
- [79]West RF Toplak ME Stanovich KE Heuristics and biases as measures of critical thinking: associations with cognitive ability and thinking dispositions. J Educ Psychol 2008; 100: 930– 41
- [80]Lilienfield SO Ammirati R Landfield K Giving debiasing away: can psychological research on correcting cognitive errors promote human welfare? Perspect Psychol Sci 2009; 4: 390– 8 26158987
- [81]Croskerry P Context is everything or how could I have been that stupid? Healthc Q 2009; 12: 167– 73 19667765
- [84]Danzigera S Levavb J Avnaim-Pessoa L Extraneous factors in judicial decisions. Proc Nat Acad Sci 2011; 108: 6889– 92 21482790 PMC3084045
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Dual-process cognitive interventions to enhance diagnostic reasoning: a systematic review
Lambe, K. A., O'Reilly, G., Kelly, B. D., & Curristan, S. (2016) · BMJ Quality & Safety · doi:10.1136/bmjqs-2015-004417 · Cited by 215 · see citing works
Kliegr, T., Bahník, Š., & Fürnkranz, J. (2021) · Artificial Intelligence · doi:10.1016/j.artint.2021.103458 · Cited by 139 · see citing works
Chang, W., Chen, E., Mellers, B., & Tetlock, P. (2016) · Judgment and Decision Making · doi:10.1017/s1930297500004599 · Cited by 89 · see citing works
“Accurate probability judgments are important in domains such as law, finance, medicine and politics (Croskerry et al., 2013b; Jolls & Sunstein, 2005).”
Generalization Bias in Science
Peters, U., Krauss, A., & Braganza, O. (2022) · Cognitive Science · doi:10.1111/cogs.13188 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
Developing Checklists to Prevent Diagnostic Error in Emergency Room Settings
Graber, M. L., Sorensen, A. V., Biswas, J., Modi, V., Wackett, A., Johnson, S., Lenfestey, N., Meyer, A. N. D., & Singh, H. (2014) · Diagnosis · doi:10.1515/dx-2014-0019 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
Recognizing and reducing cognitive bias in clinical and forensic neurology
Satya-Murti, S., & Lockhart, J. (2015) · Neurology Clinical Practice · doi:10.1212/cpj.0000000000000181 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Factors influencing physician prognosis: A scoping review
Ferrand, A., Poleksic, J., & Racine, E. (2022) · MDM Policy & Practice · doi:10.1177/23814683221145158 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Job, C., Adenipekun, B., Cleves, A., & Samuriwo, R. (2022) · BMJ Open · doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2021-059837 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Contextual Debiasing and Critical Thinking: Reasons for Optimism
Correia, V. (2018) · Topoi · doi:10.1007/s11245-016-9388-x · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Parsons, A. S., Wijesekera, T. P., Olson, A. P. J., Torre, D., Durning, S. J., & Daniel, M. (2025) · Medical Teacher · doi:10.1080/0142159x.2024.2359963 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Yager, J., Ritvo, A. D., & MacPhee, E. R. (2022) · Journal of Nervous & Mental Disease · doi:10.1097/nmd.0000000000001548 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Mastrianni, A., Kim, M. S., Sullivan, T. M., Sippel, G. J., Burd, R. S., Gajos, K. Z., & Sarcevic, A. (2025) · Proceedings of the ACM on Human-Computer Interaction · doi:10.1145/3757512 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
A Primer on Cognitive Errors Illustrated Through the Lens of a Neurosurgical Practice
Florman, J. E., Almeder, L., & Trowbridge, R. (2020) · Journal of Maine Medical Center · doi:10.46804/2641-2225.1054
- Authors
- Croskerry, P., Singhal, G., & Mamede, S.
- Affiliations
- Dalhousie University (CA)
- Baylor College of Medicine (US)
- Erasmus University Rotterdam (NL)
- Corresponding author
- Croskerry, Pat
- Venue
- BMJ Quality & Safety
- Publisher
- BMJ
- Published
- 2013-08-30
- Volume
- 22
- Issue
- Suppl 2
- Pages
- ii65-ii72
- ISSN
- 1475-3898 (ISSN-L)
- 2044-5415
- 2044-5423
- PMC
- PMC3786644
- OpenAlex
- W2147558794
- Cited by
- 419
- References
- 12
- Citations by year
- 2026: 32 · 2025: 31 · 2024: 29 · 2023: 41 · 2022: 28 · 2021: 35 · 2020: 34 · 2019: 56 · 2018: 27 · 2017: 34 · 2016: 38 · 2015: 15 · 2014: 17 · 2013: 2
- FWCI
- 20.37
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by-nc
- Locations
- BMJ Quality & Safety (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (acceptedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- RePub (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- HighWire Press Open Archive (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Family Practice › Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › Emergency Medical Services › Patient Safety and Medication Errors
- Keywords
- cognitive debiasing, cognitive biases, clinical reasoning, diagnostic failure, cognitive change, forcing functions, critical thinking, medical education, workplace interventions, decision-making, bias mitigation strategies
- MeSH terms
- Clinical Competence, Cognition, Decision Making, Diagnosis, Differential, Diagnostic Errors, Humans, Prejudice, Thinking
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review