A Stochastic Differential Equation Model of Diurnal Cortisol Patterns
Abstract
Circadian modulation of episodic bursts is recognized as the normal physiological pattern of diurnal variation in plasma cortisol levels. The primary physiological factors underlying these diurnal patterns are the ultradian timing of secretory events, circadian modulation of the amplitude of secretory events, infusion of the hormone from the adrenal gland into the plasma, and clearance of the hormone from the plasma by the liver. Each measured plasma cortisol level has an error arising from the cortisol immunoassay. We demonstrate that all of these three physiological principles can be succinctly summarized in a single stochastic differential equation plus measurement error model and show that physiologically consistent ranges of the model parameters can be determined from published reports. We summarize the model parameters in terms of the multivariate Gaussian probability density and establish the plausibility of the model with a series of simulation studies. Our framework makes possible a sensitivity analysis in which all model parameters are allowed to vary simultaneously. The model offers an approach for simultaneously representing cortisol's ultradian, circadian, and kinetic properties. Our modeling paradigm provides a framework for simulation studies and data analysis that should be readily adaptable to the analysis of other endocrine hormone systems.
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The amplitude and timing variations of cortisol pulses are due to the circadian rhythm and ultradian rhythm of underlying cortisol release.
“The amplitude and timing variations of the pulses are due to the circadian rhythm and ultradian rhythm of the underlying cortisol release (37).”
From Sparse System Identification of Leptin Dynamics in Women With Obesity (2022) · cites this paper as [37]
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The Impact of Stochasticity and Its Control on a Model of the Inflammatory Response
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Stochastic Models for Prodrug Targeting. 1. Diffusion of the Efflux Drug
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Mathematical Models of Endocrine Systems
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Understanding homeostatic dynamics of the HPA axis using a glucocorticoid pulsatile model
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- Authors
- Brown, E. N., Meehan, P. M., & Dempster, A. P.
- Affiliations
- Harvard University (US)
- ORCID
- Brown, Emery N.
- Venue
- American Journal of Physiology-Endocrinology and Metabolism
- Publisher
- American Physiological Society
- Published
- 2001-03-01
- Volume
- 280
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- E450-E461
- ISSN
- 0193-1849 (ISSN-L)
- 1522-1555
- OpenAlex
- W1954326660
- Cited by
- 61
- References
- 56
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 1 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 1 · 2020: 2 · 2019: 5 · 2018: 2 · 2017: 2 · 2016: 4 · 2015: 5 · 2014: 5 · 2013: 2 · 2012: 5
- FWCI
- 0.31
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- American Journal of Physiology-Endocrinology and Metabolism (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute on Aging (R01AG006072, 1-R01-AG06072, 1-P01-AG-09975, P01AG009975)
- National Institute of General Medical Sciences (R01GM053559, 1-R01-GM-53559)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Behavioral Neuroscience › Stress Responses and Cortisol
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Adrenal Hormones and Disorders
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Endocrine and Autonomic Systems › Circadian rhythm and melatonin
- Keywords
- diurnal cortisol rhythm, stochastic differential equation model, circadian rhythm, ultradian rhythms, cortisol secretion, plasma cortisol, cortisol clearance, sensitivity analysis, multivariate normal distribution
- MeSH terms
- Adrenal Glands, Algorithms, Circadian Rhythm, Humans, Hydrocortisone, Kinetics, Light, Liver, Male, Mathematics, Models, Biological, Periodicity
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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