The DOI matches its Crossref record; 5 of the 5 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Attribution of Extreme Events in Arctic Sea Ice Extent
Abstract
Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) has decreased over recent decades, with record-setting minimum events in 2007 and again in 2012. A question of interest across many disciplines concerns the extent to which such extreme events can be attributed to anthropogenic influences. First, a detection and attribution analysis is performed for trends in SIE anomalies over the observed period. The main objective of this study is an event attribution analysis for extreme minimum events in Arctic SIE. Although focus is placed on the 2012 event, the results are generalized to extreme events of other magnitudes, including both past and potential future extremes. Several ensembles of model responses are used, including two single-model large ensembles. Using several different metrics to define the events in question, it is shown that an extreme SIE minimum of the magnitude seen in 2012 is consistent with a scenario including anthropogenic influence and is extremely unlikely in a scenario excluding anthropogenic influence. Hence, the 2012 Arctic sea ice minimum provides a counterexample to the often-quoted idea that individual extreme events cannot be attributed to human influence.
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Cites
The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections
Tebaldi, C., & Knutti, R. (2007) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2076 · Cited by 1,862
Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003
Stott, P. A., Stone, D. A., & Allen, M. R. (2004) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature03089 · Cited by 1,735
Attribution of extreme weather and climate‐related events
Stott, P. A., Christidis, N., Otto, F. E. L., Sun, Y., Vanderlinden, J., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Vautard, R., von Storch, H., Walton, P., Yiou, P., et al. (2016) · WIREs Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.380 · Cited by 781
Self-citationDramatically increasing chance of extremely hot summers since the 2003 European heatwave
Christidis, N., Jones, G. S., & Stott, P. A. (2015) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2468 · Cited by 573
Recent and future changes in Arctic sea ice simulated by the HadCM3 AOGCM
Gregory, J. M., Stott, P. A., Cresswell, D. J., Rayner, N. A., Gordon, C., & Sexton, D. M. H. (2002) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2001gl014575 · Cited by 145
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Attribution of the Influence of Human‐Induced Climate Change on an Extreme Fire Season
Kirchmeier‐Young, M. C., Gillett, N. P., Zwiers, F. W., Cannon, A. J., & Anslow, F. S. (2019) · Earth's Future · doi:10.1029/2018ef001050 · Cited by 323
Self-citation(2023) · Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis · doi:10.1017/9781009157896.003 · Cited by 298
Human influence has intensified extreme precipitation in North America
Kirchmeier-Young, M. C., & Zhang, X. (2020) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1921628117 · Cited by 288
Self-citationMonsoons Climate Change Assessment
Wang, B., Biasutti, M., Byrne, M. P., Castro, C., Chang, C.-P., Cook, K., Fu, R., Grimm, A. M., Ha, K.-J., Hendon, H., et al. (2021) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-19-0335.1 · Cited by 268
Metadata
- Authors
- Kirchmeier-Young, M. C., Zwiers, F. W., & Gillett, N. P.
- Venue
- Journal of Climate
- Publisher
- American Meteorological Society
- Published
- 2017-01-15
- Volume
- 30
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 553-571
- ISSN
- 0894-8755 (ISSN-L)
- 1520-0442
- OpenAlex
- W2531211372
- Cited by
- 274
- References
- 5
- FWCI
- 8.04
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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