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Stronger Increase in the Frequency of Extreme Convective than Extreme Warm El Niño Events under Greenhouse Warming

Wang, Guojian, Cai, Wenju, Santoso, Agus·2020·Journal of Climate
DOI 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0376.1
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Abstract

Since 1979, three extreme El Niño events occurred, in 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16, with pronounced impacts that disrupted global weather patterns, agriculture, fisheries, and ecosystems. Although all three episodes are referred to as strong equatorial eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events, the 2015/16 event is considered a mixed regime of both EP and central Pacific (CP) El Niño. During such extreme events, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies peak over the EP region, hereafter referred to as an extreme warm El Niño (ExtWarmEN) event. Simultaneously, the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) moves southward to the usually dry and cold Niño-3 region, resulting in dramatic rainfall increases to more than 5 mm day−1 averaged over boreal winter, referred to as an extreme convective El Niño (ExtConEN) event. However, in climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that are able to simulate both types of events, ExtConEN events are found not to always coincide with ExtWarmEN events and the disassociation becomes more distinct under greenhouse warming when the increased frequency of ExtConEN events is notably larger than that of ExtWarmEN events. The disassociation highlights the role of eastward migration of western Pacific convection and equatorward shift of the South Pacific convergence zone associated with the faster warming over the EP region as a result of greenhouse warming.

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Metadata

Authors
Wang, G., Cai, W., & Santoso, A.
Affiliations
  • Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Institute for Advanced Ocean Studies, Ocean University of China, and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, China, and Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
  • Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania, and Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
Venue
Journal of Climate
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Published
2020-01-15
Volume
33
Issue
2
Pages
675-690
ISSN
  • 0894-8755
  • 1520-0442
DOI
10.1175/jcli-d-19-0376.1
Cited by
22
References
2
Funders
  • Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, a joint research centre between QNLM and CSIRO
  • Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub of the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program
  • a CSIRO Office of Chief Executive Science Leader award

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