Variable Patterns of Remission From ADHD in the Multimodal Treatment Study of ADHD
Open accessAbstract
OBJECTIVE: It is estimated that childhood attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) remits by adulthood in approximately 50% of cases; however, this conclusion is typically based on single endpoints, failing to consider longitudinal patterns of ADHD expression. The authors investigated the extent to which children with ADHD experience recovery and variable patterns of remission by adulthood. METHODS: Children with ADHD (N=558) in the Multimodal Treatment Study of ADHD (MTA) underwent eight assessments over follow-ups ranging from 2 years (mean age, 10.44 years) to 16 years (mean age, 25.12 years) after baseline. The authors identified participants with fully remitted, partially remitted, and persistent ADHD at each time point on the basis of parent, teacher, and self-reports of ADHD symptoms and impairment, treatment utilization, and substance use and mental disorders. Longitudinal patterns of remission and persistence were identified that considered context and timing. RESULTS: Approximately 30% of children with ADHD experienced full remission at some point during the follow-up period; however, a majority of them (60%) experienced recurrence of ADHD after the initial period of remission. Only 9.1% of the sample demonstrated recovery (sustained remission) by study endpoint, and only 10.8% demonstrated stable ADHD persistence across study time points. Most participants with ADHD (63.8%) had fluctuating periods of remission and recurrence over time. CONCLUSIONS: The MTA findings challenge the notion that approximately 50% of children with ADHD outgrow the disorder by adulthood. Most cases demonstrated fluctuating symptoms between childhood and young adulthood. Although intermittent periods of remission can be expected in most cases, 90% of children with ADHD in MTA continued to experience residual symptoms into young adulthood.
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Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
In the MTA follow-up, childhood ADHD rarely showed sustained recovery by young adulthood: only 9.1% recovered, while most had fluctuating remission and recurrence. The findings challenge the estimate that about 50% of children with ADHD outgrow the disorder by adulthood.
Key findings
- Full remission occurred at some point in 31.4% (n=175) of the sample, but 59.4% (n=104) of those had full or partial recurrence after the initial full remission.
- Only 9.1% (n=51) demonstrated recovery (sustained full remission to study endpoint), 10.8% (n=60) had stable persistence, 15.6% (n=87) had stable partial remission, and 63.8% (n=356) showed fluctuating ADHD; four cases had insufficient information.
- At individual assessments, full remission ranged from 1.4% (2-year) to 18.5% (10-year), partial remission from 37.2% to 51.4%, and persistence from 39.7% to 55.9%.
- Among the 51 recovered cases, median recovery duration was four years; recovery onset was in adulthood for 76.5%, adolescence for 21.5%, and childhood for 2.0%.
Methods
- The study used the Multimodal Treatment Study of ADHD (MTA) follow-up subsample of 558 children with ADHD-Combined Type who had at least one follow-up assessment, across eight assessments from 2-year (mean age 10.44) to 16-year follow-up (mean age 25.12).
- ADHD symptoms were measured with parent, teacher, and self-report SNAP and CAARS; impairment with parent-report CIS and parent/self-report IRS; mental health and substance use with DISC; and treatment utilization with SCAPI/Health Questionnaire.
- Full remission required symptoms below an empirically validated 3-symptom threshold, absence of clinically significant impairment, and no ADHD treatment for at least one month; persistence used DSM-5 symptom thresholds, and an expert clinical panel judged whether impairment was due to residual ADHD or another disorder. Longitudinal patterns included recovery, stable persistence, stable partial remission, and fluctuating ADHD.
Limitations
- The paper states that follow-up ended around age 25, so it is unclear how trends continue into middle and older adulthood or whether recovery is permanent; the sample included only ADHD-Combined Type, limiting generalization to other presentations.
- The paper notes no empirical precedent for the full/partial remission boundary, that alternative definitions may have produced different estimates, and that missing data may have underestimated the fluctuating pattern by up to 10%; source switching may have slightly affected diagnostic fluctuations.
- The paper also states that impairment ratings in childhood/adolescence were parent-only, teacher ratings were discontinued in adulthood, the DISC was not administered at the 10-year assessment, expert panel decisions were likely imperfect, and cut-point categorization can introduce statistical error; the observational design cannot establish causes of remission.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
25 of 48 cited sources checked · 14 supported · 1 flagged · accuracy not yet measured
- Interpretationcitation
The high prevalence of partial remission is consistent with the finding of Hechtman et al. that many MTA ADHD group participants who failed to meet ADHD symptom criteria in adulthood still suffered significant impairments.
“The high prevalence of partial remission is consistent with the finding of Hechtman et al. that many MTA ADHD group participants who failed to meet ADHD symptom criteria in adulthood still suffered significant impairments.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [10] source
- Premisecitation
Biederman and colleagues detected a subgroup of children with ADHD who appeared fully remitted in young adulthood (~22-23%).
“Biederman and colleagues detected a subgroup of children with ADHD who appeared fully remitted in young adulthood (~22–23%), signifying possible recovery from ADHD.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked - Premisecitation
Most longitudinal work on ADHD remission and persistence reports only a single-time snapshot of functioning.
“Most longitudinal work on ADHD remission and persistence reports only a single-time snapshot of functioning, even though ADHD is considered a life-course disorder.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 6 sources checked- cites [2] source
- cites [4] source
The Introduction says that most follow-up studies used clinical samples, but it does not say that most reported functioning at only one time point. The Methods (Statistical analyses; page unavailable) describe this paper’s own assessment of functioning at age 18. Searches for a single-time snapshot in prior longitudinal work found no passage establishing that broader claim. (LLM, conf=0.72)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [5] source
- cites [6] source
- cites [9] source
- cites [10] source
The Introduction (page unavailable) describes prior prospective follow-up studies and their adult outcomes, but does not say that most report functioning at only one time point. The Discussion (page unavailable) compares this study with previous longitudinal work without addressing that claim. Searches for single-time-point and cross-sectional reporting found no supporting passage in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.70)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Interpretationcitation
This study is consistent with previous findings that, at a single timepoint, most individuals who no longer meet ADHD DSM criteria still experience elevated symptoms or impairments or are actively treated with medication.
“This study is consistent with previous findings that, at a single timepoint, most individuals who no longer meet ADHD DSM criteria still experience elevated symptoms or impairments or are actively treated with medication (see Table 2).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked - Findingcitation
Young adult assessments corresponding temporally with Biederman and colleagues' estimates (12- and 14-year assessments) demonstrated comparable full remission rates (18% vs 22-23%).
“Young adult assessments corresponding temporally with Biederman and colleagues’ estimates (i.e., 12- and 14-year assessments) demonstrated comparable full remission rates (18% vs 22–23%).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim2 of 2 sources checked
- Premisecitation
Biederman and colleagues demonstrated that 65-67% of young adults (mean age 22) with childhood ADHD no longer met full DSM criteria.
“Biederman and colleagues7–8 demonstrated that 65–67% young adults (mean age 22) with childhood ADHD no longer met full DSM criteria.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked- cites [7] source
- cites [8] source
The Results (age-specific prevalence; page unavailable) report that 32 of 96 girls with childhood ADHD (33.3%) still met full diagnostic criteria, so 66.7% no longer did. The Results also give a mean follow-up age of 22.1 years. The claim omits that the study followed girls specifically and that some participants had not yet reached adulthood; it should not be read as saying that 66.7% were fully remitted. (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Premisecitation
In Biederman and colleagues' studies, the vast majority (77-78%) had clinically elevated ADHD symptoms, impairment, and/or continuation of ADHD treatments.
“On the other hand, the vast majority (77–78%) had clinically elevated ADHD symptoms, impairment, and/or continuation of ADHD treatments.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked - Premisereasoning
There is virtually no scientific information on the extent to which individuals sustain remission long-term, experience recurrence of ADHD post-remission, or fluctuate between full remission, partial remission, and ADHD persistence.
“There is virtually no scientific information on the extent to which individuals sustain remission long-term (i.e., recover from ADHD symptoms and impairments), experience recurrence of ADHD post-remission (i.e., remission is temporary), or fluctuate between full remission, partial remission, and ADHD persistence (whether ADHD might be a waxing and waning disorder).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 6 sources checked- cites [2] source
- cites [4] source
The Results section, “Childhood characteristics of persistent versus remitted ADHD” (page unavailable), compares ADHD status in childhood and at age 18. It does not address whether remission is sustained long-term, ADHD recurs after remission, or individuals fluctuate among full remission, partial remission, and persistence. Searches for recurrence, relapse, sustained remission, and waxing and waning found no passage making the claimed statement about the state of scientific knowledge. (LLM, conf=0.74)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [5] source
- cites [6] source
- cites [9] source
- cites [10] source
The Discussion says few studies have compared adult outcomes for people whose ADHD symptoms persisted or desisted. It does not address how often remission is sustained, ADHD recurs after remission, or individuals move among remission and persistence states. Searches for recurrence and fluctuating remission found no passage making that broader claim; page numbers were not available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.72)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Findingown data
Full remission at a single assessment ranged from 1.4% to 18.5% across MTA follow-up assessments.
“Across assessments, percentage of fully remitted cases ranged from 1.4% (2-year assessment) to 18.5% (10-year assessment).”
- Also stated in: § DISCUSSION · plain
“In the present study, full remission at a single assessment ranged from 1.4% to 18.5%.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § DISCUSSION · plain
- Findingown data
The 2- and 3-symptom thresholds did not significantly differ in AUC values (.681 versus .687; z=.54, p=.652).
“the 2- and 3-symptom thresholds did not significantly differ in AUC values (.681 versus .687; z=.54, p=.652).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Only 9.1% of the MTA ADHD sample demonstrated recovery (sustained remission to study endpoint) by young adulthood.
“Only 9.1% of the sample demonstrated recovery (sustained remission) by study endpoint”
- Also stated in: § Longitudinal Patterns of Remission, Recurrence, and Recovery from ADHD · plain
“Recovery from ADHD was detected for 9.1% (n=51) of the sample”
- Also stated in: § DISCUSSION · plain
“Only 9.1% of the MTA sample experienced recovery (i.e., sustained remission for multiple time points until study endpoint).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Longitudinal Patterns of Remission, Recurrence, and Recovery from ADHD · plain
- Findingown data
Among the 51 recovered cases, median recovery period duration was four years.
“Among the 9.1% who demonstrated recovery by the final MTA assessment (age M=25.12, SD=1.07), median recovery period duration was four years.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
40-50% of the MTA ADHD group met DSM criteria for ADHD at any given follow-up.
“the present study indicates that 40–50% of the ADHD group met DSM criteria for ADHD at any given follow-up.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Only 10.8% of the MTA ADHD sample demonstrated stable ADHD persistence across all study timepoints.
“only 10.8% demonstrated stable ADHD persistence across study timepoints”
- Also stated in: § Longitudinal Patterns of Remission, Recurrence, and Recovery from ADHD · plain
“10.8% (n=60) of the sample were persistent at all time points”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Longitudinal Patterns of Remission, Recurrence, and Recovery from ADHD · plain
- Findingown data
Among fully remitting cases, a majority (59.4%) experienced full or partial recurrence of ADHD after the initial full remission.
“a majority (60% of these) experienced recurrence of ADHD after the initial period of remission”
- Also stated in: § Longitudinal Patterns of Remission, Recurrence, and Recovery from ADHD · boosted
“Among 175 fully remitting cases, 59.4% (n=104) demonstrated full (29.1%) or partial (30.3%) recurrence of ADHD after the initial episode of full remission.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Longitudinal Patterns of Remission, Recurrence, and Recovery from ADHD · boosted
- Findingown data
Partial remission at a single assessment ranged from 37.2% to 51.4% across MTA follow-up assessments.
“Percentage of partially remitted cases ranged from 37.2% (10-year assessment) to 51.4% (2-year assessment).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Approximately 30% (31.4%) of children with ADHD in the MTA experienced full remission at some point during the 14-year follow-up.
“Approximately 30% of children with ADHD experienced full remission at some point during the 14-year follow-up period; however, a majority (60% of these) experienced recurrence of ADHD after the initial period of remission.”
- Also stated in: § Longitudinal Patterns of Remission, Recurrence, and Recovery from ADHD · plain
“In total, 31.4% (n=175) of the sample met criteria for full remission during at least one time point.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Longitudinal Patterns of Remission, Recurrence, and Recovery from ADHD · plain
- Findingown data
Persistent ADHD at a single assessment ranged from 39.7% to 55.9% across MTA follow-up assessments.
“Percentage of persistent cases (i.e., those who met DSM-5 criteria for ADHD) ranged from 39.7% (14- and 16-year assessments) to 55.9% (6-year assessment).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
All four candidate full remission definitions detected absence of impairment at a level greater than chance (AUC>.5) across developmental periods.
“AUC confidence intervals (see Table 1) indicated that across developmental periods, all four candidate definitions detected absence of impairment at a level greater than chance (AUC>.5).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
All four candidate full remission definitions represented symptom counts within the LNCG normative range (<84th percentile) across developmental periods.
“LNCG percentile ranks indicated that across developmental periods, all candidate definitions for full remission represented symptom counts within the LNCG normative range of functioning (<84th percentile).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
15.6% of the MTA ADHD sample experienced partial remission that maintained through study endpoint.
“15.6% (n=87) experienced partial remission that maintained through study endpoint”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The 3-symptom threshold demonstrated optimal diagnostic accuracy and normativity for childhood and adulthood.
“For childhood and adulthood, the 3-symptom threshold demonstrated optimal diagnostic accuracy (i.e., AUC value) and normativity (i.e., most LNCG had three or fewer ADHD symptoms in childhood [72.5%] and adulthood [81.0%]).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Most participants with ADHD (63.8%) had fluctuating periods of remission and recurrence over time.
“most participants with ADHD (63.8%) had fluctuating periods of remission and recurrence over time”
- Also stated in: § Longitudinal Patterns of Remission, Recurrence, and Recovery from ADHD · boosted
“63.8% (n=356) demonstrated a pattern of fluctuating ADHD”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Longitudinal Patterns of Remission, Recurrence, and Recovery from ADHD · boosted
- Findingown data
A stepwise series of curves indicated an increasing ratio of sensitivity to specificity when moving from the 0- to 3-symptom threshold.
“A stepwise series of curves indicated an increasing ratio of sensitivity to specificity when moving from the 0- to 3-symptom threshold.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
When full and partial remission statuses are collapsed into one remission category, 48.5% meet criteria for the fluctuating status by study endpoint.
“When structuring the data in this way, 48.5% meet criteria for the fluctuating status by study endpoint.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationown data
After a period of full remission, recurrent ADHD symptoms were the rule rather than the exception.
“After a period of full remission, recurrent ADHD symptoms were the rule, rather than the exception.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
Remission was typically partial rather than full.
“However, remission was typically partial, rather than full.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
Among those who did not recover, most experienced either stable partial remission or fluctuating, waxing and waning ADHD symptoms from childhood to young adulthood.
“Among those who did not recover, most experienced either stable partial remission (15.6% of ADHD group) or fluctuating, waxing and waning ADHD symptoms (63.8% of ADHD group) from childhood to young adulthood.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
Over 90% of individuals with childhood ADHD will continue to struggle with residual, though sometimes fluctuating, symptoms and impairments through at least young adulthood.
“Although intermittent periods of remission can be expected in most cases, 90% of children with ADHD continued to struggle with residual ADHD through young adulthood.”
- Also stated in: § DISCUSSION · hedged
“Overall, results suggest that over 90% of individuals with childhood ADHD will continue to struggle with residual, though sometimes fluctuating, symptoms and impairments through at least young adulthood.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § DISCUSSION · hedged
- Interpretationown data
Most recoveries from ADHD begin in adulthood.
“We also confirmed that most recoveries from ADHD begin in adulthood (see Table 3), although this finding could be partially an artefact of not having later assessments to detect recurrences.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
The fluctuating patterns detected in the MTA reveal ADHD to be a dynamic rather than static disorder.
“Nevertheless, the fluctuating patterns detected here reveal ADHD to be a dynamic rather than static disorder.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
Full remission at a single timepoint should not be conflated with recovery from ADHD.
“The MTA’s longitudinal perspective highlights that full remission at a single timepoint should not be conflated with recovery from ADHD.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
The MTA findings challenge the notion that approximately 50% of children with ADHD outgrow the disorder by adulthood.
“The MTA findings challenge the notion that approximately 50% of children with ADHD outgrow the disorder by adulthood.”
- Also stated in: § DISCUSSION · plain
“Our more nuanced, longitudinal estimate of remission challenges claims that approximately half of children with ADHD outgrow their difficulties by adulthood.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § DISCUSSION · plain
- Study design and conductown data
The full remission symptom count threshold was empirically validated using LNCG percentiles and ROC analyses.
“Our first task was to empirically validate a “full remission” symptom count threshold that 1) represents normative symptom count levels based on LNCG percentiles (normativity) and 2) maximizes sensitivity and specificity to detect childhood ADHD cases without residual impairments at follow-up (correct classification).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductnone given
The current subsample did not differ from the full sample on any baseline variable.
“The subsample did not differ from the full sample on any baseline variable.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Study design and conductown data
CIS and IRS thresholds for absence of impairment were validated using normative data from the LNCG.
“For the current study, we validated CIS and IRS thresholds for “absence of impairment” (see Supplement 2) using normative data from the LNCG.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductown data
Sensitivity analyses suggested that missing data may have produced an underestimate of the fluctuating pattern by up to 10%.
“Additionally, sensitivity analyses (see Supplement 8) suggested that missing data may have produced an underestimate of the fluctuating pattern (by up to 10%) and that source switching may have had a very slight impact on diagnostic fluctuations.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Study design and conductreasoning
Requiring an informant to substantiate self-reports of remitted ADHD may have produced some false negative full remission classifications.
“Requiring an informant to substantiate self-reports of remitted ADHD may have produced some false negative full remission classifications.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 21
- May combine two claims. 15
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductcitationThe study utilized a previously validated definition of persistence applying the DSM-5 symptom threshold and an impairment threshold.
“We utilized a previously validated definition of persistence,3,10 which applied the DSM-5 symptom threshold (5 or 6 symptoms of either Inattention or Hyperactivity/Impulsivity, depending on age) using the CAARS (or SNAP) and impairment threshold of “3 or higher” on the IRS (or CIS).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked- cites [3] source
Methods > Analyses evaluates a DSM-5 threshold of five symptoms, and Methods > Measures uses CAARS ratings and an IRS impairment cutoff of ≥3. However, Results > Analysis 2 and the Discussion identify the optimized persistence definition as a norm-based threshold of four symptoms, not the DSM-5 threshold. The paper therefore supports components of the cited definition, but not its characterization as the definition validated by this study; it also does not establish the stated age-dependent threshold or SNAP/CIS alternatives. (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [10] source
The Method section, under “Determination of ADHD Symptom Persistence,” says the study used DSM-5 symptom-count criteria on the CAARS, but explicitly states that impairment was not used to define persistence or desistence. It therefore contradicts the claim that this paper’s definition also applied an impairment threshold of 3 or higher on the IRS or CIS. (LLM, conf=0.90)
Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
PremisecitationADHD is a neurobiological disorder typically first detected in childhood that persists into adulthood in approximately 50% of cases.
“Decades of research characterize Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) as a neurobiological disorder typically first detected in childhood that persists into adulthood in approximately 50% of cases.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 3 sources checked- cites [1] source
- cites [2] source
- cites [3] source
The Discussion (page unavailable) reports approximately 60% symptom persistence under its optimized definition, or 41.1% when impairment is also required, so approximately 50% is a rough characterization rather than the paper’s stated estimate. The study follows children diagnosed with ADHD into adulthood, but the passages do not characterize ADHD as a neurobiological disorder. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationMost ADHD longitudinal studies simply define remission as failing to meet DSM criteria, with few attempts to identify or define distinct subtypes and patterns of remission.
“Most ADHD longitudinal studies simply define remission as “failing to meet DSM criteria,” with few attempts to identify/define distinct subtypes and patterns of remission.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 3 sources checked- cites [4] source
The Methods section (‘Persistent, remitted, and late-onset ADHD groups’; page unavailable) defines remission in this study as meeting ADHD diagnostic criteria in childhood but not at age 18. The paper does not establish that most longitudinal studies use this definition or that few distinguish subtypes or patterns of remission. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites [5] source
- cites [6] source
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductcitationTo prevent false negative symptom and impairment reports due to under-reporting, participants meeting the remitted definition and unimpaired criterion were required to have at least one other informant report corroborating the lack of difficulties.
“To prevent false negative symptom and impairment reports due to under-reporting by participants with ADHD,3,27 we required those meeting the “remitted” definition (and “unimpaired” criterion) to have at least one other informant report to corroborate the lack of difficulties.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checkedClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationBased on standard norming procedures for mental health symptom measures, scores below the LNCG 84th percentile were considered in the normal range.
“Based on standard norming procedures for mental health symptom measures, scores below the LNCG 84th percentile were considered in the normal range.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [28] source
Appendix B (labeled Conclusion in our copy; page unavailable) uses community-based bands to classify roughly 80% of children as normal on the SDQ. It does not establish an 84th-percentile cutoff for LNCG scores or describe that cutoff as a standard norming procedure. The Discussion also calls its SDQ cutoffs provisional and recommends choosing them according to the sample and study. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationADHD is considered a life-course disorder.
“even though ADHD is considered a life-course disorder.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 6 sources checkedMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationThe study did not test 4-, 5-, and 6-symptom remission thresholds because 5- and 6-symptom thresholds indicate elevated symptoms in the DSM-5 ADHD A criterion and the 4-symptom threshold has repeatedly demonstrated validity as a norm-based threshold for adolescent/adult ADHD symptom elevations.
“We did not test 4-, 5-, and 6-symptom remission thresholds given that: a) 5- and 6-symptom thresholds indicate the presence of elevated symptoms in the DSM-5 ADHD “A criterion,” and (b) the 4-symptom threshold has repeatedly demonstrated validity as a norm-based threshold for adolescent/adult ADHD symptom elevations.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 3 sources checkedMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataOnset of recovery occurred in adulthood for 76.5%, adolescence for 21.5%, and childhood for 2.0% of the 51 recovered cases.
“Onset of recovery came in adulthood for 76.5% (n=39), adolescence for 21.5% (n=11), and childhood for 2.0% (n=1) of the 51 classified as recovered.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe 3-symptom threshold was preferred for all developmental periods because normativity was stronger for the 3-symptom threshold in adolescence and the 2- and 3-symptom thresholds did not significantly differ in AUC values.
“Although the 2-symptom threshold demonstrated optimal diagnostic accuracy in adolescence, the 3-symptom threshold was ultimately preferred because normativity was stronger for the 3-symptom threshold (60.3% LNCG had 3 or fewer symptoms in adolescence vs. 51.3% for the 2-symptom threshold) and the 2- and 3-symptom thresholds did not significantly differ in AUC values (.681 versus .687; z=.54, p=.65”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Findingown dataFor the CIS, absence of impairment was optimally defined as a score of 1 or lower on all CIS items.
“These analyses indicated that for the CIS, absence of impairment was optimally defined as a “1” or lower on all CIS items.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Findingown dataFor the IRS, absence of impairment was optimally defined as a score of 2 or lower on all items, combining parent- and self-reports using an OR rule.
“For the IRS, absence of impairment was optimally defined as a “2” or lower on all items (combining parent- and self-reports using an “OR rule”).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataMTA follow-up discontinued at approximately age 25, so it is not clear how longitudinal trends will continue into middle and older adulthood.
“Our greatest limitation is that MTA follow-up discontinued at approximately age 25. Therefore, it is not clear how longitudinal trends will continue into middle and older adulthood.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).
Interpretationown dataThe results support a more informed perspective on ADHD, its impairment, and its tendency to fluctuate over time in symptoms and impairment.
“Results support a more informed perspective on ADHD, its impairment, and its tendency to fluctuate over time in symptoms and impairment-perhaps in response to environmental or health-related factors.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationLahey et al. detected longitudinal symptom fluctuations in childhood ADHD that produced temporal instability in ADHD subtypes.
“This finding echoes Lahey et al. who detected longitudinal symptom fluctuations in childhood ADHD that produced temporal instability in ADHD subtypes.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [30] source
May combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataChildhood-onset ADHD is a chronic but waxing and waning disorder with periods of full remission that are more often temporary than sustained.
“These findings emphasize that childhood-onset ADHD is a chronic but waxing and waning disorder with periods of full remission that are more often temporary than sustained.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationnone givenThe MTA sample only recruited participants with ADHD-Combined Type, so results may not generalize to other ADHD subtypes/presentations.
“The MTA sample only recruited participants with ADHD-Combined Type. Results may not generalize to other ADHD subtypes/presentations.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductreasoningDecisions made by the expert clinical panel were likely imperfect because panel members were unable to query differential diagnosis during real-time clinical assessment.
“Decisions made by the expert clinical panel were likely imperfect because panel members were unable to query differential diagnosis during real-time clinical assessment.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataThe DISC was not administered at the 10-year assessment, so comorbidities could not be reviewed in impaired but asymptomatic cases for that time point.
“The DISC was not administered at the 10-year assessment; thus, we could not review comorbidities in impaired but asymptomatic cases for this time point.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductcitationBoth the SNAP and CAARS instruments measure DSM-IV-TR ADHD symptoms.
“Both instruments measure DSM-IV-TR ADHD symptoms.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [17] Swanson JM, 1992
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [18] Swanson JM, 2012, Int J Educ Psychol Assess
- cites [19]
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataSource switching may have had a very slight impact on diagnostic fluctuations.
“Additionally, sensitivity analyses (see Supplement 8) suggested that missing data may have produced an underestimate of the fluctuating pattern (by up to 10%) and that source switching may have had a very slight impact on diagnostic fluctuations.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).
Study design and conductnone givenUsing cut-points to categorize continuous data can lead to statistical error.
“Although reflective of diagnostic nosology, using cut-points to categorize continuous data can lead to statistical error.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductcitationScores of 2-3 indicated symptom presence, as is standard practice.
“Scores of 2–3 indicated symptom presence, as is standard practice.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [20] source
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductreasoningDuring childhood and adolescence, impairment ratings were available only from parents, so some adolescents may have met impairment criteria if teacher or self-ratings were available.
“During childhood and adolescence, impairment ratings were available only from parents. Some adolescents may have met impairment criteria if teacher or self-ratings were available.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductreasoningTeacher ratings were discontinued in adulthood, so some symptoms present in post-secondary academic settings may have gone undetected.
“Similarly, teacher ratings were of necessity discontinued in adulthood; some symptoms present in post-secondary academic settings may have gone undetected.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductnone givenThe study used empirically validated, absolute cut-points for symptom and impairment thresholds.
“We used empirically validated, absolute cut-points for symptom and impairment thresholds.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataRetention in adulthood was 82% for the ADHD group and 94% for the LNCG.
“Retention in adulthood (completed 12-, 14-, or 16-year assessment) was 82% for the ADHD group (N=476) and 94% for the LNCG (N=272).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductreasoningRequiring absence of ADHD treatment as a criterion for full remission may have excluded some treated cases that experienced remission independent of therapeutic intervention.
“Whereas we required absence of ADHD treatment as a criterion for full remission, some treated cases may have experienced remission that was independent of therapeutic intervention.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductreasoningThe study was observational, so the authors cannot draw definite conclusions about the causes of remission.
“Our study was observational; therefore, we cannot draw definite conclusions about the causes of remission.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenAlternative definitions that were considered may have led to different estimates.
“however, alternative definitions that were considered (see Supplement 6) may have led to different estimates.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenFollow-up assessments were administered by bachelor's-level staff who were closely supervised and trained to be objective.
“Follow-up assessments were administered to participants and parents at 2, 3, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, and 16 years post-baseline by bachelor’s-level staff who were closely supervised and trained to be objective.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductreasoningExcluding currently treated cases from the full remission category conservatively assures that symptom remission is not due to active treatment.
“Exclusion of currently treated cases from the full remission category does not imply confidence that treatment is in every case dampening symptom expression; rather, it conservatively assures that symptom remission is not due to active treatment.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataAn expert clinical panel reviewed cases with clinically significant impairment to judge whether impairment was due to residual ADHD or another disorder, and most decisions (80.9%) were unanimous.
“For each case, three board-certified child/adolescent psychiatrists and four licensed clinical psychologists reviewed mental health and substance use diagnoses, domains of impairment, ADHD symptom endorsements, and treatment utilization. They judged whether reported impairments were best explained by residual ADHD symptoms or a concurrent substance use or mental disorder. Most decisions (80.9%)”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
The authors state this as an assumption.
For four cases with a missing data point bookended by two episodes of full remission, continuity of recovery was assumed.
“On four occasions, a data point was missing but bookended with two episodes of full remission. Here, continuity of recovery was assumed but the missing data point was not counted when calculating the duration of full remission.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The literature lacked any empirical precedent for the boundary between full and partial remission.
“The literature lacked any empirical precedent for the boundary between full and partial remission.”
Statistics that don’t add up
Each reported p-value recomputed from its test statistic and degrees of freedom.
Inconsistent p-value: z=.54, p = .652
MinorThe paper reports p = .652 here; recomputing from the test statistic and its degrees of freedom gives p = .589 (two-tailed). The check cannot tell whether the statistic or the p-value is the misprint.
Reported p = .652 · recomputed p = .589
“z=.54, p=.652”
Statistics recomputed
Every reported test result, recomputed from its test statistic and degrees of freedom. A result shows as not adding up only once an independent check has confirmed it.
- Doesn’t add upz = 0.54reported p = .652 · recomputed p = .589
“z=.54, p = .652”
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Stated 40-50% persistence range excludes a reported follow-up
MinorThe paper says 40-50% met ADHD criteria at any given follow-up, but reports 55.9% at the 6-year assessment.
“the present study indicates that 40–50% of the ADHD group met DSM criteria for ADHD at any given follow-up.”
“Percentage of persistent cases (i.e., those who met DSM-5 criteria for ADHD) ranged from 39.7% (14- and 16-year assessments) to 55.9% (6-year assessment).”
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Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 3
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- Swanson JM, 2012, Int J Educ Psychol Assess, 10, 51
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
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Arnold, V. K., López, F. A., Childress, A. C., Po, M. D., Uchida, C. L., Cuthbertson, L., Sallee, F. R., & Incledon, B. (2024) · Journal of Attention Disorders · doi:10.1177/10870547241243155 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
“…disorder estimated to affect 11% of children and 4.4% of adults in the United States; furthermore, approximately 90% of those diagnosed with ADHD in childhood go on to experience symptoms at some point during adulthood (Kessler et al., 2006; Sibley et al., 2022; Visser et al., 2014).”
BackgroundInfluential
- Authors
- Sibley, M. H., Arnold, L. E., Swanson, J. M., Hechtman, L. T., Kennedy, T. M., Owens, E., Molina, B. S. G., Jensen, P. S., Hinshaw, S. P., Roy, A., Chronis-Tuscano, A., Newcorn, J. H., Rohde, L. A., & for the MTA Cooperative Group
- Affiliations
- University of Washington (US)
- Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, University of Washington School of Medicine, and Seattle Children’s Research Institute, Seattle (Sibley); Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Health, Ohio State University, and Nisonger Center, Columbus (Arnold); Child Development Center, School of Medicine, University of California, Irvine (Swanson); Division of Child Psychiatry, McGill University, and Montreal Children’s Hospital, Montreal (Hechtman); Department of Psychiatry, University of...
- ORCID
- Venue
- American Journal of Psychiatry
- Published
- 2022-02
- Volume
- 179
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 142-151
- ISSN
- 0002-953X (ISSN-L)
- 1535-7228
- PMC
- PMC8810708
- OpenAlex
- W3192148883
- Semantic Scholar
- 010e770eac434f8235c214036d44afef0682a0aa
- Cited by
- 340
- References
- 32
- Citations by year
- 2026: 78 · 2025: 83 · 2024: 76 · 2023: 53 · 2022: 44 · 2021: 5
- FWCI
- 28.11
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- American Journal of Psychiatry (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (submittedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (n01mh12011-0-0-1, n01mh012009-007, n01mh12008-0-0-1, n01mh12010-0-0-1, n01mh12004-0-0-0, n01mh12007-0-0-0, n01mh012012-001)
- National Institute of Mental Health (U01 MH050461, N01 MH012007, U01 MH050440, N01 MH012009, N01 MH012011, N01 MH012012, N01 MH012010, U01 MH050453, U01 MH050467, N01 MH012004, N01 MH012008)
- National Institute on Drug Abuse (HHSN271200800003C, HHSN271200800006C, HHSN271200800008C, HHSN271200800005C, R01DA039881, HHSN271200800007C, HHSN271200800009C, HHSN271200800004C)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Child and Adolescent Psychosocial and Emotional Development
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Autism Spectrum Disorder Research
- Keywords
- attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, persistent ADHD, childhood to young adulthood, residual symptoms
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Attention Deficit Disorder with Hyperactivity, Child, Combined Modality Therapy, Humans, Parents, Substance-Related Disorders, Young Adult
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-23.
Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-23.
Cited sources are checked by gpt-6-sol.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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