On Growth Projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
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The recently developed Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have enabled researchers to explore coupled human–nature dynamics in new and more complex ways. Despite their wide applicability and unquestionable advantage over earlier scenarios, the utility of the SSPs for conducting societal impact assessments is impaired by shortcomings in the underlying economic growth projections. In particular, the assumed economic convergence and absence of major growth disruptions break with historical growth trajectories in the developing world. The consequence is that the SSP portfolio becomes too narrow, with an overly optimistic lower band of growth projections. This is not a trivial concern, since resulting impact assessments are likely to underestimate the full human and material costs of climate change, especially for the poorest and most vulnerable societies. In response, we propose that future quantifications of the SSPs should incorporate the likelihood of growth disruptions, informed by scenarios of the relevant political contexts that historically have been important in curbing growth.
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SSP projections provide overly optimistic estimates of adaptive capacity and resilience, especially for the poorest and most vulnerable countries in the Global South, resulting in an underestimation of likely climate-related impacts of stability and growth in the future.
“Consequently, these projections provide overly optimistic estimates of adaptive capacity and resilience, especially for the poorest and most vulnerable countries in the Global South, resulting in an underestimation of likely climate-related impacts of stability and growth in the future (189).”
From Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change (2021) · cites this paper as [189]
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Surve, I. (2025) · IEEE International Conference on Innovate for Humanitarian: Tech Solutions for Global Challenge (ICIH) · doi:10.1109/icih67754.2025.11609101
- Authors
- Buhaug, H., & Vestby, J.
- Affiliations
- World Bank (US)
- Peace Research Institute Oslo (NO)
- Venue
- Global Environmental Politics
- Publisher
- MIT Press
- Published
- 2019-11
- Volume
- 19
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 118-132
- ISSN
- 1526-3800 (ISSN-L)
- 1536-0091
- OpenAlex
- W2980238391
- Cited by
- 47
- References
- 64
- Citations by year
- 2026: 9 · 2025: 15 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 7 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 7 · 2020: 2
- FWCI
- 3.44
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- Global Environmental Politics (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Project Muse (Johns Hopkins University) (submittedVersion)
- NORA - Norwegian Open Research Archives (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Sustainability and Climate Change Governance
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
- Keywords
- Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, economic growth forecast, economic convergence, growth disruption, social impact assessment, climate change impacts, developing countries
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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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