Drought, Local Institutional Contexts, and Support for Violence in Kenya
Abstract
We address two questions on the effects of climate change for social instability. First, do droughts and their associated environmental impacts affect support for the use of violence? Second, do local-level formal and informal institutions moderate support for violence when and where droughts worsen? To answer these questions, we conducted a national survey of 1,400 Kenyans in 2014. Respondents were asked about patterns of rainfall and the presence of rules regulating natural resource use and access. Survey data are joined to spatially disaggregated observed rainfall trends. The survey uses endorsement experiments to elicit honest responses about support for using violence. There is some evidence of a direct, though limited, link between observed drought and violent attitudes. Certain local-level natural resource use rules have moderating effects on support for violence where drought is reported and precipitation is less frequent. This conditional and contextual effect is an important modification of overly simplistic narratives of universal climate change effects.
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A survey-based study of rural Kenya found that formal and informal management of local-level natural resource use has a moderating effect on support for violence in the wake of drought shocks.
“For example, a survey-based study of rural Kenya (117) found that formal and informal management of local-level natural resource use has a moderating effect on support for violence in the wake of drought shocks.”
From Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change (2021) · cites this paper as [117]
Where (neo-)traditional institutions are well-functioning, there is evidence that they can contribute to dampening the risk of violence in the wake of climate-related shocks.
“Where such institutions are well-functioning there is evidence that they can contribute to dampening the risk of violence in the wake of climate-related shocks (117-119).”
From Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change (2021) · cites this paper as [117]
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- Authors
- Linke, A. M., Witmer, F. D. W., O’Loughlin, J., McCabe, J. T., & Tir, J.
- Affiliations
- University of Utah (US)
- University of Alaska Anchorage (US)
- Institute of Behavioral Science and Department of Geography, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
- University of Colorado Boulder (US)
- Corresponding author
- Linke, Andrew M.
- Venue
- Journal of Conflict Resolution
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2017-04-12
- Volume
- 62
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- 1544-1578
- ISSN
- 0022-0027 (ISSN-L)
- 1552-8766
- OpenAlex
- W2606549367
- Cited by
- 77
- References
- 67
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 12 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 9 · 2021: 10 · 2020: 10 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 2
- FWCI
- 16.80
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Conflict Resolution (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Directorate for Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences (096451509, 0964687, 1329125)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Transboundary Water Resource Management
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Natural Resources and Economic Development
- Keywords
- drought, climate change, support for violence, local institutions, informal institutions, social instability, rainfall, moderating effect
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