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Cited by 62Political Conflict and GovernanceEnvironmental and Biological Research in Conflict ZonesTransboundary Water Resource Management

Weather, wheat, and war: Security implications of climate variability for conflict in Syria

Linke, Andrew M, Ruether, Brett·2021·Journal of Peace Research
DOI 10.1177/0022343320973070
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Abstract

We examine how Syria’s local growing seasons and precipitation variability affected patterns of violence during the country’s civil war (2011–19). Among Syria’s 272 subdistricts (nahiyah), we study conflict events initiated by the Assad regime or its allies, and, separately, by other armed non-government groups (‘rebels’). Throughout the war, violence to capture agriculture has been used regularly to control valuable cropland and harvests. Combatants also seek to deny their adversaries access to these resources by deploying violence to destroy agriculture. We test the hypothesis that conflict was most likely during local growing seasons due to both of these motivations. Additionally, we examine whether unusually dry conditions further elevated the risk of conflict during growing season months. A theory for why higher levels of conflict would occur during unusually dry conditions is that livelihood losses elevate incentives to control scarce crops and also facilitate recruitment of militants or their sympathizers. We find that violent events initiated by the government and rebel groups are both more likely during the growing season than other times of the year. There is also evidence that dry conditions during the growing season led to an increase in government-initiated attacks over the duration of the war. We find the strongest relationship between precipitation deficits and both government- and rebel-initiated violence in later years of the war. Compared with our growing season results, the rainfall deviation estimates are less consistent across models.

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  • A climate-related hazard may contribute to local scarcity and elevate the strategic relevance of controlling food resources, potentially resulting in battles between armed actors and civilian targeting.

    “A climate-related hazard, such as a drought or flood, may contribute to local scarcity and further elevate the strategic relevance of controlling food resources, potentially resulting in battles between armed actors (176) as well as civilian targeting (177, 178) in order to gain access to the scarce resource.”

    From Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change (2021) · cites this paper as [176]

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Authors
Linke, A. M., & Ruether, B.
Affiliations
University of Utah (US)
Corresponding author
Linke, Andrew M
ORCID
Linke, Andrew M
Venue
Journal of Peace Research
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Published
2021-01-01
Volume
58
Issue
1
Pages
114-131
ISSN
  • 0022-3433 (ISSN-L)
  • 1460-3578
DOI
10.1177/0022343320973070
OpenAlex
W3119998007
Cited by
62
References
58
Citations by year
2026: 7 · 2025: 8 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 16 · 2022: 13 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 1
FWCI
15.94
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Licence
Locations
  • Journal of Peace Research (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Funders
Research Council of Norway (268135/E10CROP)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law › Environmental and Biological Research in Conflict Zones
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Transboundary Water Resource Management
Keywords
climate variability, conflict, Syrian civil war, growing season, rainfall variability, drought, wheat, armed conflict, rebel groups, livelihood loss, climate and conflict

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