The DOI matches its Crossref record; 26 of the 28 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Investigating Allegations of Pointshaving in NCAA Basketball Using Actual Sportsbook Betting Percentages
Abstract
Detailed gambling market data are used to investigate allegations of pointshaving in college basketball by Wolfers. Data on actual sportsbook betting percentages on favorites and underdogs and changes in pointspreads are used to test for evidence of corruption by players and/or coaches of NCAA basketball teams. After establishing a rejection of the balanced book hypothesis, the authors test for corruption in a variety of ways by investigating the games that Wolfers describes as likely situations for pointshaving, specifically games involving big underdogs. In a variety of tests, which include differences in betting percentages on big underdogs who cover and do not cover the pointspread, betting simulations based on thresholds of percentage bet on underdogs, analysis of pointspread movements toward big underdogs, and an analysis of coaches and programs that meet the conditions of Wolfers, little evidence is found to suggest rampant pointshaving in this market.
Overview
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Citations
Cites
Why are Gambling Markets Organised so Differently from Financial Markets?
Levitt, S. D. (2004) · The Economic Journal · doi:10.1111/j.1468-0297.2004.00207.x · Cited by 377
Winning Isn’t Everything: Corruption in Sumo Wrestling
Duggan, M., & Levitt, S. D. (2002) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/000282802762024665 · Cited by 365
Market Efficiency and the Favorite-Longshot Bias: The Baseball Betting Market
Woodland, L. M., & Woodland, B. M. (1994) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1994.tb04429.x · Cited by 207
Prices of State Contingent Claims with Insider Traders, and the Favourite-Longshot Bias
Shin, H. S. (1992) · The Economic Journal · doi:10.2307/2234526 · Cited by 182
Optimal Betting Odds Against Insider Traders
Shin, H. S. (1991) · The Economic Journal · doi:10.2307/2234434 · Cited by 166 · cited 2×
“Shin (1991, 1992) also suggests that bookmakers (in horse racing) may set prices that differ from unbiased forecasts.”
BackgroundPoint Shaving: Corruption in NCAA Basketball
Wolfers, J. (2006) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/000282806777211757 · Cited by 166
Preston, I. P. (2003) · Oxford Review of Economic Policy · doi:10.1093/oxrep/19.4.612 · Cited by 166
Forrest, D. (2003) · Oxford Review of Economic Policy · doi:10.1093/oxrep/19.4.598 · Cited by 128
Informed Traders and Price Variations in the Betting Market for Professional Basketball Games
Gandar, J. M., Dare, W. H., Brown, C. R., & Zuber, R. A. (1998) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/0022-1082.155346 · Cited by 111
Woodland, L. M., & Woodland, B. M. (2001) · Southern Economic Journal · doi:10.1002/j.2325-8012.2001.tb00385.x · Cited by 81
A generalized model for testing the home and favorite team advantage in point spread markets
Dare, W. H., & MacDonald, S. S. (1996) · Journal of Financial Economics · doi:10.1016/0304-405x(95)00848-9 · Cited by 73
Bettor Misperceptions in the NBA: The Overbetting of Large Favorites and the “Hot Hand”
Paul, R. J., & Weinbach, A. P. (2005) · Journal of Sports Economics · doi:10.1177/1527002504266861 · Cited by 70
Self-citationDOES SPORTSBOOK.COM SET POINTSPREADS TO MAXIMIZE PROFITS?
Paul, R. J., & Weinbach, A. P. (2012) · The Journal of Prediction Markets · doi:10.5750/jpm.v1i3.429 · Cited by 68
Self-citationGandar, J. M., Zuber, R. A., Johnson, R. S., & Dare, W. H. (2002) · Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/00036840110095427 · Cited by 54
Price Setting in the NBA Gambling Market: Tests of the Levitt Model of Sportsbook Behavior
Paul, R. J., & Weinbach, A. P. (2008) · International Journal of Sport Finance · doi:10.1177/155862350800300302 · Cited by 50
Self-citationTesting efficiency in gambling markets
Even, W. E., & Noble, N. R. (1992) · Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/00036849200000106 · Cited by 49
Do bookmakers possess superior skills to bettors in predicting outcomes?
Smith, M., Paton, D., & Williams, L. V. (2009) · Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization · doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2009.03.016 · Cited by 48
Corruption in College Basketball? Evidence of Tanking in Postseason Conference Tournaments
Balsdon, E., Fong, L., & Thayer, M. (2007) · Journal of Sports Economics · doi:10.1177/1527002505275095 · Cited by 47
TESTING THE EFFICIENCY OF MARKETS IN THE 2002 WORLD CUP
Gil, R., & Levitt, S. D. (2012) · The Journal of Prediction Markets · doi:10.5750/jpm.v1i3.504 · Cited by 45
Fair bets and profitability in college football gambling
Paul, R. J., Weinbach, A. P., & Weinbach, J. (2003) · Journal of Economics and Finance · doi:10.1007/bf02827221 · Cited by 41
Self-citationPaul, R. J., & Weinbach, A. P. (2012) · The Journal of Prediction Markets · doi:10.5750/jpm.v3i2.460 · Cited by 35
Self-citationWidespread Corruption in Sports Gambling: Fact or Fiction?
Borghesi, R. (2008) · Southern Economic Journal · doi:10.1002/j.2325-8012.2008.tb00881.x · Cited by 30
A Reexamination of the Efficiency of the Betting Market on National Hockey League Games
Gandar, J. M., Zuber, R. A., & Johnson, R. S. (2004) · Journal of Sports Economics · doi:10.1177/1527002503257208 · Cited by 28
Corruption in Professional Sumo: An Update on the Study of Duggan and Levitt
Dietl, H., Lang, M., & Werner, S. (2009) · Journal of Sports Economics · doi:10.1177/1527002509349028 · Cited by 23
Market efficiency and NCAA college basketball gambling
Paul, R., & Weinbach, A. (2005) · Journal of Economics and Finance · doi:10.1007/bf02761584 · Cited by 18
Self-citationBassett, G. W. (1981) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/261001 · Cited by 18
Research works printed but not linked: 5
- Dietl, H.M., 2009, Journal of Sports Economics, OnlineFirst
- Gil, R., 2007, Journal of Prediction Markets, 1, 255
- Paul, R., 2008, International Journal of Sports Finance, 3, 2
- Roxborough, R., 1998, Sports book management: A guide for the legal book-maker
- 10.2307/1061582 · DOI
Cited by
Match Fixing and Sports Betting in Football: Empirical Evidence from the German BundesligaPreprint
Deutscher, C., Dimant, E., & Humphreys, B. R. (2017) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2910662 · Cited by 19
Andreff, W. (2016) · SAGE Publications Ltd eBooks · doi:10.4135/9781473919761.n5 · Cited by 15
Lin, W.-B., & Chen, M. (2015) · European Sport Management Quarterly · doi:10.1080/16184742.2015.1039045 · Cited by 14
Political Correctness, Selection Bias, and the NCAA Basketball Tournament
Paul, R. J., & Wilson, M. (2012) · Journal of Sports Economics · doi:10.1177/1527002512465413 · Cited by 11
Self-citationA case study in sports law analytics: The debate on widespread point shaving
Borghesi, R. (2015) · Journal of Sports Analytics · doi:10.3233/jsa-150011 · Cited by 9
Metadata
- Authors
- Paul, R. J., & Weinbach, A. P.
- Affiliations
- St. Bonaventure University (US)
- Coastal Carolina University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Paul, Rodney J.
- Venue
- Journal of Sports Economics
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2010-10-28
- Volume
- 12
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 432-447
- ISSN
- 1527-0025 (ISSN-L)
- 1552-7794
- OpenAlex
- W2170544900
- Cited by
- 20
- References
- 28
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2024: 1 · 2022: 1 · 2020: 2 · 2019: 1 · 2018: 2 · 2017: 1 · 2016: 2 · 2015: 2 · 2014: 2 · 2013: 1 · 2012: 2
- FWCI
- 2.65
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- journals.sagepub.com/page/policies/text-and-data-mining-license (tdm)
- Locations
- Journal of Sports Economics (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Sports Analytics and Performance
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Doping in Sports
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Benford’s Law and Fraud Detection
- Keywords
- NCAA basketball, corruption allegations, underdog, sports betting
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