The Seed of Doubt: Examining the Role of Alternative Social and News Media for the Birth of a Conspiracy Theory

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The 5G-COVID-19 conspiracy theory emerged by merging two existing conspiracy theories: that the pandemic was deliberate and that 5G emissions have adverse health effects.

“More recently, Bruns et al. (2020) demonstrated that the conspiracy theory linking 5G to COVID-19 emerged by merging two existing conspiracy theories -one positing that the pandemic was a deliberate event and the other asserting that 5G emissions have adverse health effects.”

• cites Bruns et al., 2020 sourcePartly supported

  The Discussion and conclusion describes the COVID-19/5G theory as a collision of longstanding beliefs about 5G’s supposed health dangers with the emerging coronavirus crisis. The Introduction mentions a separate theory that the virus was intentionally released, and Phase 2 describes an early story combining a possible bioweapon with 5G. Neither passage establishes that the theory emerged by merging two pre-existing theories, one of which held that the pandemic was deliberate. (LLM, conf=0.86)

  Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

May combine two claims.

The four platforms did not display significant differences in general posting patterns; all aligned with typical responses to news events.

“In addressing RQ 2, our sample of the four platforms did not display significant differences in general posting patterns, which all aligned with typical responses to news events.”

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4Chan (56.00%) and Gab (42.67%) contained more unwarranted conspiracy theories than Twitter (22.67%) and Reddit (14.67%).

“Furthermore, 4Chan (56.00%) and Gab (42.67%) both contained more unwarranted conspiracy theories”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The manually coded sample of n=300 posts is representative of the full dataset of Epstein-related posts.
• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The manual coding reliably distinguished unwarranted conspiracy theories from warranted skepticism.

May combine two claims.

No platform exhibited significantly faster reactions to the event, although on 4chan the debate extended for a longer duration compared to the other platforms.

“In this initial quantitative analysis, no platform exhibited significantly faster reactions to the event, although on 4chan, the debate extended for a longer duration compared to the other platforms.”

May combine two claims.

Antisemitic conspiracy theories accusing an alleged global Jewish conspiracy against the West of being responsible for Epstein's death were most notable on 4chan but also present on the other three platforms.

“Most notably on 4chan, but also present on the other three platforms, were antisemitic conspiracy theories, accusing an alleged global Jewish conspiracy against the West of being responsible for Epstein ' s death.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

Average post lengths were: tweets M=150.02, SD=87.66; Reddit comments M=190.05, SD=374.20; Gab M=287.06, SD=353.07; 4Chan M=337.29, SD=405.12 characters.

“Onaverage, the posts were relatively short with tweets ( M =150.02, SD =87.66 characters) and Reddit comments ( M = 190.05, SD =374.20 characters) being even shorter than posts on Gab ( M = 287.06, SD = 353.07 characters) and 4Chan ( M = 337.29, SD = 405.12 characters).”

May combine two claims.

On Twitter, the peak was more pronounced, accounting for 5.25% of all tweets, compared to Reddit 3.88%, Gab 3.60%, and 4chan 3.57%.

“On Twitter, the peak was more pronounced, accounting for a larger share of all tweets (5.25%), compared to the other platforms (Reddit: 3.88%, Gab: 3.60%, 4chan: 3.57%).”

May combine two claims.

On 4Chan, users did share some URLs linking to established news outlets, but other news outlets, alternative and established alike, are mostly missing from the sample.

“The exception to this is 4Chan: While users on this platform did share some URLs linking to established news outlets (e.g., the first official news report confirming Epstein ' s death published by the New York Times), other news outlets, alternative and established alike, are mostly missing from out sample.”

May combine two claims.

The top 15 most shared outlets contained an equal amount of alternative and established media sources, with the larger outlets from both categories taking up most of the shares.

“The top 15 sources contained an equal amount of alternative and established media sources, with the larger outlets from both categories taking up most of the shares.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The classification of media domains as established or alternative is valid.

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On Gab (74.28%) and Twitter (44.71%) the share of URLs was higher, whereas posts on 4Chan (12.98%) and Reddit (31.24%) used URLs less frequently.

“On Gab, (74.28%) and Twitter (44.71%) the share of URLs was higher, whereas posts on 4Chan (12.98%) and Reddit (31.24%) used URLs less frequently.”

May combine two claims.

None of the platforms exhibited significantly faster reactions to the event, although the debate extended for a longer duration on 4Chan than on the other platforms.

“None of the platforms exhibited significantly faster reactions to the event, although the debate extended for a longer duration on 4 Chan than on the other platforms.”

May combine two claims.

On Gab, users shared fewer established media sources (52.81%) than alternative media sources (71.77%), and almost a quarter shared both (24.58%).

“On Gab on the other hand, users shared fewer established media sources (52.81%) than alternative media sources (71.77%) and almost a quarter shared both (24.58%).”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The classification of media domains as established or alternative is valid.
• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The four platforms have distinct levels of alternativeness, with Twitter and Reddit as established and Gab and 4Chan as alternative.

May combine two claims.

On Twitter and Reddit, most users shared established media sources (Twitter: 74.64%, Reddit: 88.59%), and only a small share (<5%) shared both established and alternative media sources.

“On Twitter and Reddit, most users shared established media sources (Twitter: 74.64%, Reddit: 88.59%), and only a small share of users (&lt; 5%) shared both established and alternative media sources.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The classification of media domains as established or alternative is valid.
• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The four platforms have distinct levels of alternativeness, with Twitter and Reddit as established and Gab and 4Chan as alternative.

May combine two claims.

Users who shared established media sources tended to post like those who didn't share these sources at all, yet they were less likely to reference one of the most prominent unwarranted conspiracy theories found in the data.

“Answering RQ 3, users who shared established media sources tended to post like those who didn ' t share these sources at all, yet they were less likely to reference one of the most prominent unwarranted conspiracy theories found in the data.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: Co-occurrence of words in posts indicates semantic association or narrative linkage.

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Most posts were critical of the official representation of events, and over a third of all posts spread unwarranted conspiracy theories.

“Most posts were critical of the official representation of events, and over a third of all posts spread unwarranted conspiracy theories.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The manually coded sample of n=300 posts is representative of the full dataset of Epstein-related posts.
• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The manual coding reliably distinguished unwarranted conspiracy theories from warranted skepticism.

May combine two claims.

The most shared URLs led to established news media outlets reporting on Epstein's death (4.41%, n=13,162), although alternative news media outlets were also present (3.64%, n=10,860).

“Analyzing the most frequently shared URLs per platform revealed that the most shared URLs led to established news media outlets reporting on Epstein ' s death (4.41%, n = 13,162), although alternative news media outlets were also present (3.64%, n = 10,860).”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The classification of media domains as established or alternative is valid.

May combine two claims.

Conspiracy-theoretical interpretations were particularly prominent on alternative social media, with 4chan contributing heavily to the spread of antisemitic narratives, and Gab providing a home for QAnon-related discourses.

“Conspiracy-theoretical interpretations were particularly prominent on alternative social media, with 4chan contributing heavily to the spread of antisemitic narratives, and Gab providing a home for QAnon-related discourses.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The four platforms have distinct levels of alternativeness, with Twitter and Reddit as established and Gab and 4Chan as alternative.

May combine two claims.

4Chan users shared little from any news media source, except a New York Times article breaking the news of Epstein's death, but mainly shared direct sources used to support the formation of conspirational narratives, like flight logs.

“4Chan users shared little from any news media source (with the exception of a New York Times article breaking the news of Epstein ' s death), but mainly shared direct sources used to support the formation of conspirational narratives, like flight logs.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The classification of media domains as established or alternative is valid.
• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The four platforms have distinct levels of alternativeness, with Twitter and Reddit as established and Gab and 4Chan as alternative.

May combine two claims.

While the corpus for users sharing established media sources contains around three times the number of posts than the alternative-source corpus, it is much more complex and less monothematic.

“While the corpus used to build the co-occurrence graph of users sharing established media sources contains around three times the number of posts than the one of users sharing alternative media sources, it is much more complex and less monothematic.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: Co-occurrence of words in posts indicates semantic association or narrative linkage.

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The mean number of connections between words is more than 10 times higher in the established-source graph, and the graph has a lower centrality than its counterpart.

“The mean number of connections between words is more than 10 times higher, and the graph also has a lower centrality than its counterpart”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: Co-occurrence of words in posts indicates semantic association or narrative linkage.

May combine two claims.

Conspiracy mentality tends to be relatively stable and normally distributed in society.

“While conspiracy mentality tends to be relatively stable and normally distributed in society, the belief in specific conspiracies is skewed and subject to change (Imhoff et al., 2022; Uscinski, Enders, et al., 2022).”

• cites Imhoff et al., 2022 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Uscinski, Enders, et al., 2022Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

In most conspiracy theories, the central actors of the narrative are politicians or political institutions, either as conspirators or enablers.

“Regarding their content, in most conspiracy theories, the central actors of the narrative are politicians or political institutions, either as the conspirators themselves or as the enablers of some nefarious plot, due to an assumed naivete or corrupt behavior.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Conspiracy theories can be understood as a tool that enables the critique of established forms of knowledge (production).

“From a less normative perspective conspiracy theories can also be understood as a tool that enables the critique of established forms of knowledge (production).”

May combine two claims.

Belief in specific conspiracies is skewed and subject to change.

“While conspiracy mentality tends to be relatively stable and normally distributed in society, the belief in specific conspiracies is skewed and subject to change (Imhoff et al., 2022; Uscinski, Enders, et al., 2022).”

• cites Imhoff et al., 2022 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Uscinski, Enders, et al., 2022Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The study made all scripts and comprehensive details of preprocessing and analytical pipeline available through OSF.

“We have made available all scripts and comprehensive details of the preprocessing and analytical pipeline through the Open Science Framework (link removed for blinded peer-review).”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Turning towards conspiracy theories seems to be motivated by societal crises and feelings of fear, uncertainty, and perceived lack of control.

“Turning towards conspiracy theories also seems to be motivated by societal crises and the feelings of fear, uncertainty, and a perceived lack of control.”

• cites van Prooijen & Jostmann, 2013 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

The availability of news coverage about a critical event could reduce the spread of conspiracy theories by reducing the need for sensemaking in the collective.

“In consequence, the availability of news coverage about a critical event could reduce the spread of conspiracy theories by reducing the need for sensemaking in the collective.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Conspiracy theories can arise quickly after pivotal incidents.

“Bricker (2013) delved into the responses and subsequent surge in accusations of conspiracies directed at climate scientists following the leak of unlawfully obtained emails from a Climate Research Unit, illustrating how quickly conspiracy theories can arise after pivotal incidents.”

• cites Bricker, 2013 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Conspiracy theories can be used as a form of propaganda or misinformation to spread uncertainty and distrust in societal institutions.

“They can be used as a form of propaganda or misinformation to spread uncertainty and distrust in societal institutions (van Prooijen et al., 2022).”

• cites van Prooijen et al., 2022Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

There remains a dearth of knowledge concerning the origin and evolution of specific conspiracy theories across different platforms.

“Despite the accumulating evidence highlighting the corrosive impact of conspiracy beliefs, there remains a notable gap in our understanding of the genesis and evolution of specific conspiracy theories.”

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The findings align with the assumption that conspiracy theories flourish in times of uncertainty and serve as a form of collective sense making.

“Overall, our findings align with the assumption that conspiracy theories flourish in times of uncertainty (van Prooijen &amp; Jostmann, 2013) and serve as a form of collective sense making (Kou et al., 2017).”

• cites van Prooijen & Jostmann, 2013 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Kou et al., 2017 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

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Specific conspiracy theories in the aftermath of a pivotal event seemed to build upon existing conspiracy myths (e.g., antisemitism), already circulating theories (e.g., Pizzagate), and thrive on animosities (e.g., towards political opponents).

“Like Lego bricks, specific conspiracy theories in the aftermath of a pivotal event seemed to build upon existing conspiracy myths (e.g., antisemitism), already circulating theories (e.g., Pizzagate), and thrive on animosities (e.g., towards political opponents).”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The study is a comparative case study of a single event, which limits the generalizability of its results.

“First, we present a comparative case study of a single event. Future research on other events needs to examine the stability of the observed dynamics to test the generalizability of our results.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The mixed design of (semi-)automated and manual content analysis may not capture many intricacies of conspiracy theory practices (e.g., coded language).

“Second, to account for the sheer amount of data, we used a mixed design of (semi-)automated and manual content analysis. Many of the intricacies of conspiracy theory practices (e.g., the use of coded language) would benefit from a more extensive qualitative approach.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The evidence presented cannot be used to draw assumptions about individual users' beliefs or individual sharing motivations.

“Finally, the evidence presented in this study cannot be used to draw assumptions about individual users ' beliefs or individual sharing motivations.”

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Uncertainty can be a driver of a turn towards conspirational explanations, which in turn may erode trust in societal institutions.

“By understanding conspiracy theories as purposeful communication about politics (McNair, 2011), our study can illustrate how uncertainty can be a driver of a turn towards conspirational explanations, which in turn may erode trust in societal institutions.”

• cites McNair, 2011 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

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The findings are consistent with prior research showing that alternative social media and particularly fringe communities like 4Chan provide a welcoming environment for the spread of toxic content, likely due to their self-positioning as safe havens for such statements and their corresponding loose moderation rules.

“Thus, our findings are consistent with prior research showing that alternative social media and particularly fringe communities like 4Chan provide a welcoming environment for the spread of toxic content (Finkelstein et al., 2020; Rieger et al., 2021; Zannettou et al., 2018), likely due to their self-positioning as safe havens for such statements and their corresponding loose moderation rules (Fris”

• cites Finkelstein et al., 2020Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Rieger et al., 2021 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Zannettou et al., 2018Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The four platforms have distinct levels of alternativeness, with Twitter and Reddit as established and Gab and 4Chan as alternative.

May combine two claims.

The established-source graph indicates a thematically less centralized discussion that lacks a central narrative.

“hinting at a thematically less centralized discussion, that is, a discussion that lacks a central narrative.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

The study did not analyze the content of the shared sources, so its distinction between established and alternative media sources does not consider the possibility of established news outlets spreading unwarranted conspiracy theories or alternative news sources confirming orthodox views.

“We also did not analyze the content of the shared sources. Our distinction of established and alternative media sources, representing the distinction between orthodox and heterodox interpretations of events, does not consider the possibility of established news outlets spreading unwarranted conspiracy theories, or alternative news sources confirming orthodox views”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The distinction between established and alternative media sources represents the distinction between orthodox and heterodox interpretations of events.