Protocol for the modeling the epidemiologic transition study: a longitudinal observational study of energy balance and change in body weight, diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk
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BACKGROUND: The prevalence of obesity has increased in societies of all socio-cultural backgrounds. To date, guidelines set forward to prevent obesity have universally emphasized optimal levels of physical activity. However there are few empirical data to support the assertion that low levels of energy expenditure in activity is a causal factor in the current obesity epidemic are very limited. METHODS/DESIGN: The Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study (METS) is a cohort study designed to assess the association between physical activity levels and relative weight, weight gain and diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk in five population-based samples at different stages of economic development. Twenty-five hundred young adults, ages 25-45, were enrolled in the study; 500 from sites in Ghana, South Africa, Seychelles, Jamaica and the United States. At baseline, physical activity levels were assessed using accelerometry and a questionnaire in all participants and by doubly labeled water in a subsample of 75 per site. We assessed dietary intake using two separate 24-hour recalls, body composition using bioelectrical impedance analysis, and health history, social and economic indicators by questionnaire. Blood pressure was measured and blood samples collected for measurement of lipids, glucose, insulin and adipokines. Full examination including physical activity using accelerometry, anthropometric data and fasting glucose will take place at 12 and 24 months. The distribution of the main variables and the associations between physical activity, independent of energy intake, glucose metabolism and anthropometric measures will be assessed using cross-section and longitudinal analysis within and between sites. DISCUSSION: METS will provide insight on the relative contribution of physical activity and diet to excess weight, age-related weight gain and incident glucose impairment in five populations' samples of young adults at different stages of economic development. These data should be useful for the development of empirically-based public health policy aimed at the prevention of obesity and associated chronic diseases.
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METS procedures used protocols standardized across sites, and centralized training was finished before recruitment began.
“All procedures conducted in METS followed protocols standardized across all sites with centralized training completed prior to the start of participant recruitment (18).”
From Prediction of fat-free mass using bioelectrical impedance analysis in young adults from five populations of African origin (2013) · cites this paper as [18]
Methods and Design > Measurements describes common measurements across the METS sites and says dietary-recall interviewers at each site were centrally trained. It does not establish that all procedures followed standardized protocols across sites or that centralized training was completed before participant recruitment began; the stated pre-initiation timing concerns preparation of local-food photographs and portions. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredAll participating institutions' ethics committees or review boards approved the METS protocol, and every participant gave written informed consent.
“The protocol for METS was approved by the institutional review boards or ethics committees of all participating institutions and written, informed consent was obtained from all participants by local investigators in the local language or dialect (18)”
From Prediction of fat-free mass using bioelectrical impedance analysis in young adults from five populations of African origin (2013) · cites this paper as [18]
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Energy expenditure and obesity across the economic spectrum
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Self-citationSani, M., Refinetti, R., Jean‐Louis, G., Pandi-Perumal, S. R., Durazo-Arvizú, R., Dugas, L. R., Kafensztok, R., Bovet, P., Forrester, T., Lambert, E. V., et al. (2015) · Chronobiology International · doi:10.3109/07420528.2015.1038559 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Self-citationGut microbiota alterations in response to sleep length among African-origin adults
Fei, N., Choo-Kang, C., Reutrakul, S., Crowley, S. J., Rae, D. E., Bedu-Addo, K., Plange‐Rhule, J., Forrester, T., Lambert, E. V., Bovet, P., et al. (2021) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0255323 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Self-citationLuke, A., Bovet, P., Forrester, T. E., Lambert, E. V., Plange-Rhule, J., Dugas, L. R., Durazo-Arvizu, R. A., Kroff, J., Richie, W. N., & Schoeller, D. A. (2013) · European Journal of Clinical Nutrition · doi:10.1038/ejcn.2013.123 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
“Individuals with infectious diseases, including HIV-positive individuals, and pregnant or lactating women, as well as persons with conditions preventing normal physical activities, e.g. lower extremity disability were excluded from participation in METS.”
MethodInfluentialSelf-citationDugas, L. R., Kliethermes, S., Plange‐Rhule, J., Tong, L., Bovet, P., Forrester, T., Lambert, E. V., Schoeller, D. A., Durazo-Arvizú, R., Shoham, D. A., et al. (2017) · PeerJ · doi:10.7717/peerj.2902 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Self-citationDugas, L. R., Forrester, T., Plange‐Rhule, J., Bovet, P., Lambert, E. V., Durazo-Arvizú, R., Cao, G., Cooper, R., Khatib, R., Tonino, L., et al. (2017) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/s12889-017-4318-4 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Self-citationTranscriptome prediction performance across machine learning models and diverse ancestries
Okoro, P. C., Schubert, R., Guo, X., Johnson, W. C., Rotter, J. I., Hoeschele, I., Liu, Y., Im, H. K., Luke, A. H., Dugas, L. R., et al. (2021) · Human Genetics and Genomics Advances · doi:10.1016/j.xhgg.2020.100019 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Self-citationFibroblast Growth Factor-23 (FGF-23) Levels Differ Across Populations by Degree of Industrialization
Yuen, S. N., Kramer, H., Luke, A. H., Bovet, P., Plange‐Rhule, J., Forrester, T., Lambert, V., Wolf, M. S., Camacho, P. M., Harders, R., et al. (2016) · The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism · doi:10.1210/jc.2015-3558 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Self-citationAtiase, Y., Farni, K. E., Plange‐Rhule, J., Luke, A. H., Bovet, P., Forrester, T. G., Lambert, V., Levitt, N. S., Kliethermes, S., Cao, G., et al. (2015) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/s12889-015-2233-0 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Self-citationOkop, K., Lambert, E. V., Alaba, O. A., Levitt, N. S., Luke, A. H., Dugas, L. R., Dover, R. V. H., Kroff, J., Micklesfield, L. K., Kolbe-Alexander, T. L., et al. (2018) · International Journal of Obesity · doi:10.1038/s41366-018-0216-9 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Self-citationHow dietary intake has been assessed in African countries? A systematic review
Vila-Real, C., Pimenta‐Martins, A., Gomes, A., Pinto, E. C. B., & Maina, N. H. (2016) · Critical Reviews in Food Science and Nutrition · doi:10.1080/10408398.2016.1236778 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Creber, C., Cooper, R., Plange‐Rhule, J., Bovet, P., Lambert, E. V., Forrester, T., Schoeller, D. A., Riesen, W., Korte, W. C., Cao, G., et al. (2018) · BMC Cardiovascular Disorders · doi:10.1186/s12872-017-0737-5 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Self-citationHe, Y., Lu, Y., Yang, S., Li, Y., Yang, Y., Chen, J., Huang, Y., Lin, Z., Li, Y., Kong, Y., et al. (2021) · American Journal of Kidney Diseases · doi:10.1053/j.ajkd.2021.03.023 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Nutrition transition in a middle-income country: 22-year trends in the Seychelles
Cardoso, I., Bovet, P., Viswanathan, B., Luke, A. H., & Marques-Vidal, P. M. (2012) · European Journal of Clinical Nutrition · doi:10.1038/ejcn.2012.199 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Self-citationCorreia, A. T. L., Forshaw, P. E., Roden, L. C., Lipinska, G., Rauch, L., Lambert, E. V., Layden, B. T., Reutrakul, S., Crowley, S. J., Luke, A. H., et al. (2024) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-024-54032-w · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Self-citationObesity-related metabolite profiles of black women spanning the epidemiologic transition
Dugas, L. R., Chorell, E., Plange‐Rhule, J., Lambert, E. V., Cao, G., Cooper, R., Layden, B. T., Scholten, D., Olsson, T., Luke, A. H., et al. (2016) · Metabolomics · doi:10.1007/s11306-016-0960-6 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Self-citationAssociation between smoking and total energy expenditure in a multi-country study
Gonseth, S., Dugas, L. R., Viswanathan, B., Forrester, T., Lambert, V., Plange‐Rhule, J., Durazo-Arvizú, R., Luke, A. H., Schoeller, D. A., & Bovet, P. (2014) · Nutrition & Metabolism · doi:10.1186/1743-7075-11-48 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Self-citationRae, D. E., Dugas, L. R., Roden, L. C., Lambert, E. V., Bovet, P., Plange‐Rhule, J., Forrester, T., Riesen, W., Korte, W. C., Crowley, S. J., et al. (2020) · Sleep Health · doi:10.1016/j.sleh.2020.03.003 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Self-citationVitamin D levels are low in adult patients with sickle cell disease in Jamaica and West Africa
Tayo, B. O., Akingbola, T. S., Salako, B. L., McKenzie, C. A., Reid, M. E., Layden, J. E., Osunkwo, I., Plange‐Rhule, J., Luke, A. H., Durazo-Arvizú, R., et al. (2014) · BMC Hematology · doi:10.1186/2052-1839-14-12 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Self-citationThe human microbiota is associated with cardiometabolic risk across the epidemiologic transitionPreprint
Fei, N., Bernabé, B. P., Lie, L., Baghdan, D., Bedu-Addo, K., Plange‐Rhule, J., Forrester, T., Lambert, E. V., Bovet, P., Gottel, N., et al. (2019) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/595934 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Self-citationBerkoh, D., Owiredu, W. B. K. A., Gyasi, S. F., Donkoh, E. T., & Ngala, R. A. (2022) · Porto Biomedical Journal · doi:10.1097/j.pbj.0000000000000148 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Validation and reproducibility of a FFQ focused on pregnant women living in Northeastern Brazil
Tenório, M. C. D. S., Wanderley, T. M., Macedo, I. A., Vanderlei, A. L. A., de Souza, B. G., Ataide‐Silva, T., & de Oliveira, A. C. M. (2021) · Public Health Nutrition · doi:10.1017/s1368980021000549 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Refinetti, R., Sani, M., Jean‐Louis, G., Pandi-Perumal, S. R., Durazo-Arvizú, R., Dugas, L. R., Kafensztok, R., Bovet, P., Forrester, T., Lambert, E. V., et al. (2015) · Annals of Medicine · doi:10.3109/07853890.2015.1085125 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Self-citationDietary factors and fibroblast growth factor-23 levels in young adults with African ancestry
Kosk, D., Kramer, H., Luke, A. H., Camacho, P. M., Bovet, P., Plange‐Rhule, J., Forrester, T., Wolf, M. S., Sempos, C., Melamed, M. L., et al. (2016) · Journal of Bone and Mineral Metabolism · doi:10.1007/s00774-016-0804-5 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Self-citationPhysical activity and central adiposity in a cohort of African-American adults
McGrath, S., Brazel, D., Dugas, L. R., Cao, G., Durazo-Arvizú, R., & Luke, A. H. (2017) · BMC Obesity · doi:10.1186/s40608-017-0170-4 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Self-citationMehta, S., Dugas, L. R., Choo-Kang, C., Bovet, P., Forrester, T., Bedu-Addo, K., Lambert, E. V., Plange‐Rhule, J., Riesen, W., Korte, W. C., et al. (2021) · Nutrients · doi:10.3390/nu13072442 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Self-citationEcklu-Mensah, G., Choo-Kang, C., Maseng, M. G., Donato, S., Bovet, P., Bedu-Addo, K., Plange‐Rhule, J., Forrester, T., Lambert, E. V., Rae, D. E., et al. (2023) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2023.03.21.533195 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Self-citationSnodgrass, J. J., Liebert, M. A., Cepon‐Robins, T. J., Barrett, T. M., Mathur, A., Chatterji, S., & Kowal, P. R. (2015) · American Journal of Human Biology · doi:10.1002/ajhb.22803 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Toxic metals impact gut microbiota and metabolic risk in five African-origin populations
Jorgensen, J. A., Choo-Kang, C., Wang, L., Issa, L., Gilbert, J. A., Ecklu-Mensah, G., Luke, A. H., Bedu-Addo, K., Forrester, T., Bovet, P., et al. (2025) · Gut Microbes Reports · doi:10.1080/29933935.2025.2481442 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Self-citation25-Hydroxyvitamin D and blood pressure
Chiang, D. T.-W., Kramer, H., Luke, A. H., Cooper, R., Aloia, J. F., Bovet, P., Plange‐Rhule, J., Forrester, T., Lambert, V., Camacho, P. M., et al. (2017) · Journal of Hypertension · doi:10.1097/hjh.0000000000001263 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Self-citationDeglon, M., Africa, C., Soepnel, L. M., Kapwata, T., Aikins, A. D., Bedu-Addo, K., Howard, G., Lambert, E. V., Rae, D. E., Sibanda, M., et al. (2025) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/s12889-025-22757-6 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Self-citationBourdier, P., Duboz, P., Macia, E., Ka, A., Nazare, J., Cohen, E., Boëtsch, G., Blanc, S., Simon, C., & Bergouignan, A. (2020) · Cahiers de Nutrition et de Diététique · doi:10.1016/j.cnd.2020.11.003 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Reese, T., Bovet, P., Choo-Kang, C., Bedu-Addo, K., Forrester, T., Gilbert, J. A., Goedecke, J. H., Lambert, E. V., Layden, B. T., Micklesfield, L. K., et al. (2022) · PLOS Global Public Health · doi:10.1371/journal.pgph.0000127 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Self-citationSweis, N. S., Jorgensen, J. A., Zeng, J., Choo-Kang, C., Zapater, J. L., Bedu-Addo, K., Forrester, T., Bovet, P., Lambert, E. V., Riesen, W., et al. (2024) · International Journal of Obesity · doi:10.1038/s41366-024-01655-8 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Self-citationDavies, J. C., Choo-Kang, C., Soepnel, L. M., Geffen, H., Africa, C., Mtintsilana, A., Bovet, P., Viswanathan, B., Bedu-Addo, K., Plange‐Rhule, J., et al. (2025) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-025-85383-7 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Self-citationBaghdan, D., Dugas, L. R., Choo-Kang, C., Plange‐Rhule, J., Bovet, P., Viswanathan, B., Forrester, T., Lambert, E. V., Riesen, W., Korte, W. C., et al. (2021) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/s12889-021-12128-2 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Self-citationChoo-Kang, C., Reese, T., Micklesfield, L. K., Bovet, P., Bedu-Addo, K., Forrester, T., Gilbert, J. A., Goedecke, J. H., Plange‐Rhule, J., Lambert, E. V., et al. (2024) · BMJ Open · doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2022-065498 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Self-citationForshaw, P. E., Correia, A. T. L., Roden, L. C., Lambert, E. V., Layden, B. T., Reutrakul, S., Crowley, S. J., Luke, A. H., Dugas, L. R., & Rae, D. E. (2024) · Sleep Epidemiology · doi:10.1016/j.sleepe.2024.100091 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Self-citationSoepnel, L. M., Conradie, C. M., Geffen, H., Choo-Kang, C., Bovet, P., Viswanathan, B., Bedu-Addo, K., Boateng, P. O., Dei, O. A., Apusiga, K., et al. (2026) · BMJ Public Health · doi:10.1136/bmjph-2025-003427 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Self-citationDavies, J. C., Choo-Kang, C., Soepnel, L. M., Geffen, H., Mtintsilana, A., Africa, C., Bovet, P., Viswanathan, B., Bedu-Addo, K., Boateng, P. O., et al. (2024) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-5529358/v1 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Self-citationReese, T., Bovet, P., Choo-Kang, C., Bedu-Addo, K., Forrester, T., Gilbert, J. A., Goedecke, J. H., Lambert, E. V., Layden, B. T., Micklesfield, L. K., et al. (2020) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-46029/v1
Self-citationGilbert, J. A., Ecklu-Mensah, G., Maseng, M. G., Donato, S., Choo-Kang, C., Dugas, L. R., Bovet, P., Bedu-Addo, K., Plange‐Rhule, J., Forrester, T., et al. (2023) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-2791107/v1
Self-citationDeglon, M., Africa, C., Soepnel, L. M., Kapwata, T., Aikins, A. D., Bedu-Addo, K., Howard, G., Lambert, E. V., Rae, D. E., Sibanda, M., et al. (2024) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-4788466/v1
Self-citationAtibila, F., ten Hoor, G. A., Donkoh, E. T., Wahab, A. I., & Kok, G. (2021) · Figshare · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.15130973
Baghdan, D., Dugas, L. R., Choo-Kang, C., Plange‐Rhule, J., Bovet, P., Viswanathan, B., Forrester, T., Lambert, E. V., Riesen, W., Korte, W., et al. (2021) · Figshare · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.17126018
Self-citationAtibila, F., ten Hoor, G. A., Donkoh, E. T., Wahab, A. I., & Kok, G. (2021) · Figshare · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.15130988
Atibila, F., ten Hoor, G. A., Donkoh, E. T., Wahab, A. I., & Kok, G. (2021) · Figshare · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.15130991
Baghdan, D., Dugas, L. R., Choo-Kang, C., Plange‐Rhule, J., Bovet, P., Viswanathan, B., Forrester, T., Lambert, E. V., Riesen, W., Korte, W., et al. (2021) · Figshare · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.17126015
Self-citationAtibila, F., ten Hoor, G. A., Donkoh, E. T., Wahab, A. I., & Kok, G. (2021) · Figshare · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.15130970
Baghdan, D., Dugas, L. R., Choo-Kang, C., Plange‐Rhule, J., Bovet, P., Viswanathan, B., Forrester, T., Lambert, E. V., Riesen, W., Korte, W., et al. (2021) · Figshare · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.17126009
Self-citationBaghdan, D., Dugas, L. R., Choo-Kang, C., Plange‐Rhule, J., Bovet, P., Viswanathan, B., Forrester, T., Lambert, E. V., Riesen, W., Korte, W., et al. (2021) · Figshare · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.17126012
Self-citationAtibila, F., ten Hoor, G. A., Donkoh, E. T., Wahab, A. I., & Kok, G. (2021) · Figshare · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.15130985
Baghdan, D., Dugas, L. R., Choo-Kang, C., Plange‐Rhule, J., Bovet, P., Viswanathan, B., Forrester, T., Lambert, E. V., Riesen, W., Korte, W., et al. (2021) · Figshare · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.17126006
Self-citationSoepnel, L. M., Jorgensen, J. A., Hannan, L., Choo-Kang, C., Mtintsilana, A., Ecklu-Mensah, G., Gilbert, J. A., Bedu-Addo, K., Forrester, T., Bovet, P., et al. (2026) · Gut Microbes Reports · doi:10.1080/29933935.2026.2741991
Self-citation
- Authors
- Luke, A., Bovet, P., Forrester, T. E., Lambert, E. V., Plange-Rhule, J., Schoeller, D. A., Dugas, L. R., Durazo-Arvizu, R. A., Shoham, D., Cooper, R. S., Brage, S., Ekelund, U., & Steyn, N. P.
- Affiliations
- Loyola University Chicago (US)
- Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois (CH)
- University of the West Indies System (JM)
- University of Cape Town (ZA)
- University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
- Addenbrooke's Hospital (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Luke, Amy
- ORCID
- Venue
- BMC Public Health
- Published
- 2011-12
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 927-927
- ISSN
- 1471-2458 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC3297543
- OpenAlex
- W2089586473
- Cited by
- 82
- References
- 67
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 6 · 2023: 3 · 2022: 3 · 2021: 17 · 2020: 3 · 2019: 2 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 9 · 2016: 7 · 2015: 8 · 2014: 10 · 2013: 1 · 2012: 2
- FWCI
- 4.08
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- BMC Public Health (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- SERVAL (Université de Lausanne) (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- IRIS (submittedVersion)
- Civil War Book Review (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Open University of Cape Town (University of Cape Town) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Apollo (University of Cambridge) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health
- National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (R01DK080763, 1R01DK80763)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Obesity, Physical Activity, Diet
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology › Physical Activity and Health
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
- Keywords
- physical activity, energy balance, obesity, weight gain, diabetes risk, cardiovascular risk, young adults, economic development, energy expenditure, glucose metabolism, adipokines, body composition, obesity prevention
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Body Weight, Cardiovascular Diseases, Diabetes Mellitus, Energy Metabolism, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Theoretical, Motor Activity, Obesity, Surveys and Questionnaires, Cohort Studies, Epidemiologic Studies, Risk Assessment, Internationality
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